OKE
Oneok · Energy · Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
$93.02
52w 64.02 – 97.90
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$58.6B
P/E
17.3
P/FCF
24.0
FCF yield
4.2%
ROE
15.1%
Shldr yield
4.5%
div 4.4% + bb 0.1%
What today's price assumes
At $58.6B, the market is pricing in 10.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).
Simple DCF per-share range: $59 · $79 · $99 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 4.8× across 19 years, OKE would trade near $43/share (25th–75th percentile: $25–$72); it trades at 10.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+14.5%
Rev 5y
+31.5%
Rev 10y
+15.8%
EPS 5y
+30.7%
EPS 10y
+16.7%
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $12.0B | +52.8% | $966.0M | +14.9% | 1.53 | $2.1B |
| Q1'26 | $9.6B | +19.6% | $774.0M | +21.7% | 1.23 | $934.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $9.1B | +29.5% | $977.0M | +5.9% | 1.55 | $1.5B |
| Q3'25 | $8.6B | +71.9% | $939.0M | +35.5% | 1.49 | $1.6B |
| Q2'25 | $7.9B | +61.2% | $841.0M | +7.8% | 1.34 | $1.5B |
| Q1'25 | $8.0B | +68.2% | $636.0M | −0.5% | 1.04 | $904.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $7.0B | +33.7% | $923.0M | +34.2% | 1.57 | $1.6B |
| Q3'24 | $5.0B | +19.9% | $693.0M | +52.6% | 1.18 | $1.3B |
| Q2'24 | $4.9B | +31.1% | $780.0M | +66.7% | 1.33 | $1.4B |
| Q1'24 | $4.8B | +5.8% | $639.0M | −39.1% | 1.09 | $596.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $5.2B | +4.0% | $688.0M | +41.9% | 1.11 | $1.5B |
| Q3'23 | $4.2B | −29.2% | $454.0M | +5.1% | 0.99 | $920.0M |
| Q2'23 | $3.7B | −37.8% | $468.0M | +13.0% | 1.04 | $772.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +14.5% | +31.5% | +15.8% | +6.7% |
| Operating cash flow | +24.4% | +24.1% | +18.5% | +13.5% |
| Free cash flow | +12.8% | +76.8% | +40.9% | +16.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | +12.2% | +30.7% | +16.7% | +8.7% |
| Equity | +51.3% | +30.1% | +52.3% | +15.9% |
| LT debt | +34.3% | +16.7% | +14.0% | +15.2% |
| Diluted shares | +11.8% | +7.7% | +11.5% | +7.4% |
| Stock price | +18.4% | +18.3% | +13.8% | +13.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$166vs $176 in SPY
18.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$232vs $181 in SPY
18.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$363vs $412 in SPY
13.8% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$680vs $813 in SPY
13.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$15.70
$35.1B created / $2.2B retained
Last 10 years
$164.77
$45.0B created / $272.9M retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
10.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
6.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.05
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
12.6y
SBC / FCF
3.8%
Owner earnings
$2.4B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.0%
Share count 5y
+6.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
142.3%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$1.14
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 164.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 11.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 18.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
15 of 24 checks pass · 63%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/6
- pass
Revenue growth
31.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
30.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
24.1% vs 31.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
10.1% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
17.1% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
15.1% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
10.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
7.3% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.6B vs NI $3.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
12.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
0% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.37 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$22.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
31% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
6.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
109% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
2 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/3
- pass
FCF yield
4.2% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
17.3 · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33,629 | — | 5,741 | 3,393 | 5.42 | 5,599 | 3,152 | 2,447 | 2,583 | 75 | 92 | 78 | 30,755 | 22,485 | 626 |
| 2024 | 21,698 | — | 4,989 | 3,035 | 5.17 | 4,888 | 2,021 | 2,867 | 2,313 | 159 | 102 | 733 | 31,018 | 17,036 | 587 |
| 2023 | 17,677 | — | 4,072 | 2,659 | 5.48 | 4,421 | 1,595 | 2,826 | 1,839 | 0 | 63 | 338 | 21,183 | 16,484 | 485 |
| 2022 | 22,387 | — | 2,807 | 1,722 | 3.84 | 2,906 | 1,202 | 1,704 | 1,672 | 0 | 53 | 220 | 12,696 | 6,494 | 448 |
| 2021 | 16,540 | — | 2,596 | 1,500 | 3.35 | 2,546 | 697 | 1,849 | 1,667 | — | 54 | 146 | 12,748 | 6,016 | 447 |
| 2020 | 8,542 | — | 1,361 | 613 | 1.42 | 1,899 | 2,195 | -296 | 1,605 | — | 29 | 524 | 14,228 | 6,043 | 432 |
| 2019 | 10,164 | — | 1,914 | 1,279 | 3.07 | 1,947 | 3,848 | -1,902 | 1,458 | — | 37 | 21 | 12,480 | 6,226 | 415 |
| 2018 | 12,593 | — | 1,835 | 1,152 | 2.78 | 2,187 | 2,141 | 45 | 1,335 | — | 32 | 12 | 8,873 | 6,580 | 414 |
| 2017 | 12,174 | — | 1,392 | 388 | 1.29 | 1,315 | 512 | 803 | 829 | — | 26 | 37 | 8,092 | 5,528 | 300 |
| 2016 | 8,921 | — | 1,296 | 352 | 1.66 | 1,353 | 625 | 729 | 518 | — | 41 | 249 | 7,920 | 189 | 212 |
| 2015 | 7,763 | — | 996 | 245 | 1.16 | 1,023 | 1,188 | -165 | 509 | — | 16 | 98 | 8,324 | 336 | 211 |
| 2014 | 12,195 | 2,107 | 1,144 | 314 | 1.49 | 1,286 | 1,779 | -494 | 444 | 0 | 26 | 173 | 7,150 | 592 | 210 |
| 2013 | 11,872 | 1,650 | 881 | 267 | 1.27 | 1,295 | 2,257 | -962 | 305 | 0 | 46 | 146 | 7,754 | 2,338 | 210 |
| 2012 | 10,184 | 1,644 | 953 | 361 | 1.71 | 984 | 1,866 | -882 | 262 | 150 | 37 | 577 | 6,515 | 2,130 | 211 |
| 2011 | 14,806 | 2,380 | 1,159 | 361 | 1.68 | 1,356 | 1,336 | 20 | 227 | 300 | 66 | 57 | 4,530 | 2,239 | 214 |
| 2010 | 12,679 | 2,062 | 943 | 335 | 1.55 | 834 | 583 | 251 | 194 | 0 | 24 | 30 | 3,687 | 2,449 | 216 |
| 2009 | 10,806 | 1,998 | 883 | 305 | 0.00 | 1,453 | 791 | 661 | 173 | 0 | 23 | 31 | 4,334 | 2,207 | 216 |
| 2008 | 16,157 | 1,936 | 917 | 312 | 0.00 | 476 | 1,473 | -997 | 163 | 0 | 31 | 496 | 4,113 | 2,088 | 214 |
| 2007 | 13,477 | 1,810 | 823 | 305 | 1.42 | 1,030 | 884 | 146 | 150 | 390 | 21 | 19 | — | 2,771 | 214 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.