O
Realty Income · Real Estate · Retail REITs
$63.17
52w 55.86 – 67.94
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$59.8B
P/E
56.5
P/FCF
15.5
FCF yield
6.5%
ROE
2.7%
Shldr yield
4.9%
div 4.9% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $59.8B, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 20.2% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $62 · $140 · $201 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 13.4× across 14 years, O would trade near $57/share (25th–75th percentile: $48–$60); it trades at 15.0× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+19.8%
Rev 5y
+28.4%
Rev 10y
+20.5%
EPS 5y
+0.5%
EPS 10y
+6.0%
FCF 5y
+28.4%
FCF 10y
+20.2%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $1.5B | +9.7% | $370.5M | +88.2% | 0.37 | $1.1B |
| Q1'26 | $1.5B | +12.2% | $320.9M | +28.5% | 0.33 | $874.5M |
| Q4'25 * | $1.5B | +11.0% | $296.1M | +48.3% | 0.32 | $1.2B |
| Q3'25 | $1.5B | +10.5% | $315.8M | +17.2% | 0.35 | $943.1M |
| Q2'25 | $1.4B | +5.3% | $196.9M | −24.1% | 0.22 | $1.1B |
| Q1'25 | $1.4B | +9.5% | $249.8M | +88.8% | 0.28 | $787.5M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.3B | +24.5% | $199.6M | −8.6% | 0.23 | $972.0M |
| Q3'24 | $1.3B | +28.1% | $269.5M | +15.4% | 0.30 | $841.5M |
| Q2'24 | $1.3B | +31.4% | $259.4M | +32.7% | 0.29 | $981.2M |
| Q1'24 | $1.3B | +33.5% | $132.3M | −41.2% | 0.16 | $778.7M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.1B | +21.1% | $218.4M | −3.9% | 0.30 | $760.7M |
| Q3'23 | $1.0B | +24.1% | $233.5M | +6.3% | 0.33 | $732.0M |
| Q2'23 | $1.0B | +25.8% | $195.4M | −12.5% | 0.29 | $734.9M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +19.8% | +28.4% | +20.5% | +20.7% |
| Operating cash flow | +15.9% | +29.1% | +20.3% | +20.5% |
| Free cash flow | +16.1% | +28.4% | +20.2% | +20.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | −6.3% | +0.5% | +6.0% | +5.9% |
| Equity | +11.2% | +29.1% | +22.7% | +22.6% |
| LT debt | +17.8% | +17.8% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +14.1% | +21.3% | +9.5% | +10.1% |
| Stock price | +9.9% | +3.1% | +4.7% | +9.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$133vs $176 in SPY
9.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$116vs $181 in SPY
3.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$159vs $412 in SPY
4.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$383vs $813 in SPY
9.4% vs 15.0%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
10.1%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
6.7%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.50
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
0.8%
Owner earnings
$3.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
6.4%
Share count 5y
+9.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 200.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 10.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 20.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 24 checks pass · 75%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
28.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
0.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
28.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
29.1% vs 28.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/5
- pass
Net margin
18.4% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
2.7% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
10.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
67.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.0B vs NI $1.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
— · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$39.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
9.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
76% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
6.5% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
56.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
4.2% vs 20.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5,749 | — | — | 1,059 | 1.17 | 3,995 | 132 | 3,863 | 2,921 | — | 31 | 435 | — | 39,439 | 908 |
| 2024 | 5,271 | — | — | 861 | 0.98 | 3,573 | 121 | 3,452 | 2,692 | — | 57 | 445 | — | 38,841 | 864 |
| 2023 | 4,079 | — | — | 872 | 1.26 | 2,959 | 69 | 2,890 | 2,112 | — | 26 | 233 | — | 32,941 | 693 |
| 2022 | 3,344 | — | — | 869 | 1.42 | 2,564 | 96 | 2,468 | 1,813 | — | 22 | 171 | — | 28,713 | 612 |
| 2021 | 2,080 | — | — | 359 | 0.87 | 1,322 | 19 | 1,303 | 1,169 | — | 42 | 259 | — | 25,053 | 415 |
| 2020 | 1,647 | — | — | 395 | 1.14 | 1,116 | 9 | 1,107 | 964 | — | 17 | 824 | — | 10,985 | 345 |
| 2019 | 1,488 | — | — | 436 | 1.38 | 1,069 | 24 | 1,045 | 852 | — | 14 | 54 | — | 9,774 | 316 |
| 2018 | 1,328 | — | — | 364 | 1.26 | 941 | 25 | 915 | 762 | — | 27 | 10 | — | 8,089 | 290 |
| 2017 | 1,216 | — | — | 319 | 1.10 | 876 | 15 | 861 | 689 | — | 14 | 7 | — | 7,372 | 274 |
| 2016 | 1,103 | — | — | 316 | 1.13 | 800 | 13 | 786 | 611 | — | 12 | 9 | 3,975 | 6,767 | 256 |
| 2011 | 421 | — | — | 157 | 0.52 | 299 | 4 | 295 | 219 | — | 8 | — | 1,750 | 2,255 | 256 |
| 2010 | 343 | — | — | 131 | 0.50 | 243 | — | 243 | 183 | — | 6 | — | — | 1,847 | 215 |
| 2009 | 323 | — | — | 131 | — | 227 | — | 227 | 178 | — | 5 | — | — | 1,488 | 210 |
| 2008 | 325 | — | — | 132 | — | 246 | — | 246 | 170 | — | 5 | — | — | 1,555 | 205 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.