NXPI
NXP Semiconductors · Information Technology · Semiconductors
$222.44
52w 183.00 – 339.95
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$56.2B
P/E
28.2
P/FCF
23.5
FCF yield
4.3%
ROE
20.1%
Shldr yield
3.4%
div 1.8% + bb 1.6%
What today's price assumes
At $56.2B, the market is pricing in 9.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 9.4% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $146 · $217 · $271 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 13.7× across 15 years, NXPI would trade near $153/share (25th–75th percentile: $134–$188); it trades at 19.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−2.4%
Rev 5y
+7.3%
Rev 10y
+7.2%
EPS 5y
+113.3%
EPS 10y
+2.7%
FCF 5y
+3.0%
FCF 10y
+9.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $3.2B | +12.2% | $1.1B | +129.0% | 4.43 | $793.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $3.3B | +7.2% | $455.0M | −8.1% | 1.80 | $891.0M |
| Q3'25 | $3.2B | −2.4% | $631.0M | −12.1% | 2.48 | $585.0M |
| Q2'25 | $2.9B | −6.4% | $445.0M | −32.4% | 1.75 | $779.0M |
| Q1'25 | $2.8B | −9.3% | $490.0M | −23.3% | 1.92 | $565.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $3.1B | −9.1% | $495.0M | −29.0% | 1.93 | $391.0M |
| Q3'24 | $3.3B | −5.4% | $718.0M | −8.8% | 2.79 | $779.0M |
| Q2'24 | $3.1B | −5.2% | $658.0M | −5.7% | 2.54 | $761.0M |
| Q1'24 | $3.1B | +0.2% | $639.0M | +3.9% | 2.47 | $851.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $3.4B | +3.3% | $697.0M | −3.5% | 2.67 | $1.1B |
| Q3'23 | $3.4B | −0.3% | $787.0M | +6.6% | 3.01 | $988.0M |
| Q2'23 | $3.3B | −0.4% | $698.0M | +4.2% | 2.67 | $756.0M |
| Q1'23 | $3.1B | −0.5% | $615.0M | −6.4% | 2.35 | $632.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −2.4% | +7.3% | +7.2% | +7.1% |
| Operating cash flow | −10.2% | +2.6% | +7.8% | +14.7% |
| Free cash flow | −5.1% | +3.0% | +9.4% | +23.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | −9.0% | +113.3% | +2.7% | — |
| Equity | +10.5% | +2.4% | −1.3% | +16.7% |
| LT debt | −0.8% | +7.5% | +2.4% | +6.7% |
| Diluted shares | −1.2% | −2.2% | +0.2% | — |
| Stock price | +4.5% | +2.5% | +11.1% | +20.0% |
$100, 3 years ago
$114vs $176 in SPY
4.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$113vs $181 in SPY
2.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$287vs $412 in SPY
11.1% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,550vs $813 in SPY
20.0% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$2.07
$15.6B created / $7.5B retained
Last 10 years
$3.48
$40.5B created / $11.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
13.4%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.02
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
4.5y
SBC / FCF
19.1%
Owner earnings
$2.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.4%
Share count 5y
+0.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
24.3%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.19
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 21.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 9.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 2.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 27 checks pass · 63%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- pass
Revenue growth
7.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
113.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
3.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
2.6% vs 7.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
16.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
24.8% · ≥ 10%
- fail
Gross margin stable or rising
54.7% vs 56.9% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
20.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
13.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
19.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.8B vs NI $2.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
4.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
30% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.09 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$10.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
15% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
19% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
79% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
28.2 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
9.9% vs 9.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12,269 | 6,716 | 3,047 | 2,021 | 7.95 | 2,820 | 397 | 2,423 | 1,025 | 899 | 462 | 3,267 | 10,972 | 10,056 | 254 |
| 2024 | 12,614 | 7,119 | 3,417 | 2,510 | 9.73 | 2,782 | 727 | 2,055 | 1,038 | 1,373 | 461 | 3,292 | 10,354 | 9,183 | 258 |
| 2023 | 13,276 | 7,553 | 3,661 | 2,797 | 10.70 | 3,513 | 827 | 2,686 | 1,006 | 1,053 | 411 | 3,862 | 10,175 | 8,644 | 261 |
| 2022 | 13,205 | 7,517 | 3,797 | 2,787 | 10.55 | 3,895 | 1,063 | 2,832 | 815 | 1,426 | 364 | 3,845 | 11,250 | 7,449 | 264 |
| 2021 | 11,063 | 6,067 | 2,583 | 1,871 | 6.79 | 3,077 | 767 | 2,310 | 562 | 4,015 | 353 | 2,830 | 10,650 | 6,528 | 276 |
| 2020 | 8,612 | 4,235 | 418 | 52 | 0.18 | 2,482 | 392 | 2,090 | 420 | 627 | 384 | 2,275 | 7,650 | 8,944 | 284 |
| 2019 | 8,877 | 4,618 | 641 | 243 | 0.85 | 2,373 | 526 | 1,847 | 319 | 1,443 | 346 | 1,045 | 7,400 | 9,441 | 286 |
| 2018 | 9,407 | 4,851 | 2,710 | 2,208 | 6.72 | 4,369 | 611 | 3,758 | 74 | 5,006 | 314 | 2,789 | 6,247 | 10,505 | 329 |
| 2017 | 9,256 | 4,619 | 2,102 | 2,215 | 6.41 | 2,447 | 552 | 1,895 | 0 | 286 | 281 | 3,547 | 5,814 | 13,527 | 346 |
| 2016 | 9,498 | 4,069 | -150 | 200 | 0.58 | 2,303 | 389 | 1,914 | 0 | 1,280 | 338 | 1,894 | 8,766 | 10,935 | 348 |
| 2015 | 6,101 | 2,787 | 2,015 | 1,526 | 6.10 | 1,330 | 341 | 989 | — | 475 | 216 | 1,614 | 8,656 | 11,515 | 250 |
| 2014 | 5,647 | 2,640 | 1,049 | 539 | 2.17 | 1,468 | 329 | 1,139 | — | 1,435 | 133 | 1,185 | 3,936 | 538 | 249 |
| 2013 | 4,815 | 2,177 | 651 | 348 | 1.36 | 891 | 215 | 676 | — | 405 | 88 | 670 | 3,281 | 1,301 | 255 |
| 2012 | 4,358 | 1,988 | 412 | -115 | -0.46 | 722 | 251 | 471 | — | 40 | 52 | 617 | 3,185 | 1,049 | 248 |
| 2011 | 4,194 | 1,906 | 357 | 390 | 1.57 | 175 | 221 | -46 | — | 57 | 31 | 743 | 3,747 | 1,145 | 249 |
| 2010 | 4,402 | 1,823 | 273 | -456 | -1.99 | 361 | 258 | 103 | — | — | 12 | 898 | 4,128 | 986 | — |
| 2009 | 3,519 | 898 | -931 | -167 | -0.78 | -701 | 92 | -793 | — | — | 28 | 1,026 | — | 1,041 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.