NVDA
Nvidia · Information Technology · Semiconductors
$208.48
52w 164.07 – 236.54
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$5.05T
P/E
44.3
P/FCF
55.0
FCF yield
1.8%
ROE
76.3%
Shldr yield
0.8%
div 0.0% + bb 0.8%
What today's price assumes
At $5.05T, the market is pricing in 21.5% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 55.4% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $61 · $137 · $197 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 25.0× across 19 years, NVDA would trade near $106/share (25th–75th percentile: $58–$192); it trades at 49.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+100.0%
Rev 5y
+66.9%
Rev 10y
+45.7%
EPS 5y
+94.7%
EPS 10y
+67.8%
FCF 5y
+75.4%
FCF 10y
+55.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | $81.6B | +85.2% | $58.3B | +210.6% | 2.39 | $50.3B |
| Q4'26 * | $68.1B | +73.2% | $43.0B | +94.5% | 1.76 | $36.2B |
| Q3'26 | $57.0B | +62.5% | $31.9B | +65.3% | 1.30 | $23.8B |
| Q2'26 | $46.7B | +55.6% | $26.4B | +59.2% | 1.08 | $15.4B |
| Q1'26 | $44.1B | +69.2% | $18.8B | +26.2% | 0.76 | $27.4B |
| Q4'25 * | $39.3B | +77.9% | $22.1B | +79.8% | 0.89 | $16.6B |
| Q3'25 | $35.1B | +93.6% | $19.3B | +108.9% | 0.78 | $17.6B |
| Q2'25 | $30.0B | +122.4% | $16.6B | +168.2% | 0.67 | $14.5B |
| Q1'25 | $26.0B | +262.1% | $14.9B | +628.4% | 0.60 | $15.3B |
| Q4'24 * | $22.1B | +265.3% | $12.3B | +768.9% | -0.25 | $11.5B |
| Q3'24 | $18.1B | +205.5% | $9.2B | +1259.3% | 0.37 | $7.3B |
| Q2'24 | $13.5B | +101.5% | $6.2B | +843.3% | 0.25 | $6.3B |
| Q1'24 | $7.2B | −13.2% | $2.0B | +26.3% | 0.82 | $2.9B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +100.0% | +66.9% | +45.7% | +31.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +163.1% | +77.5% | +56.4% | +39.8% |
| Free cash flow | +193.9% | +75.4% | +55.4% | +40.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | +206.6% | +94.7% | +67.8% | +50.2% |
| Equity | +92.4% | +56.2% | +42.8% | +29.7% |
| LT debt | −8.4% | +4.6% | +16.6% | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.7% | −0.3% | +1.0% | +0.4% |
| Stock price | +61.8% | +56.4% | +63.7% | +54.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$423vs $176 in SPY
61.8% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$934vs $181 in SPY
56.4% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$13,838vs $412 in SPY
63.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$68,420vs $813 in SPY
54.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$17.10
$4.00T created / $233.8B retained
Last 10 years
$17.42
$4.32T created / $248.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
62.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.9%
MC vs 10× OCF
5.18
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.1y
SBC / FCF
6.6%
Owner earnings
$90.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.7%
Share count 5y
+0.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
4.8%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.04
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 63.0% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 73.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 46.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
23 of 27 checks pass · 85%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
66.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
94.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
75.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
77.5% vs 66.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
55.6% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
60.4% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
71.1% vs 56.9% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
76.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
62.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
44.8% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $102.7B vs NI $120.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
142% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.05 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$157.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
0% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
7% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
42% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
7 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
44.3 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
21.5% vs 55.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 215,938 | 153,463 | 130,387 | 120,067 | 4.90 | 102,718 | 6,042 | 96,676 | 974 | 40,086 | 6,386 | 10,605 | 7,469 | 157,293 | 24,514 |
| 2025 | 130,497 | 97,858 | 81,453 | 72,880 | 2.94 | 64,089 | 3,236 | 60,853 | 834 | 33,706 | 4,737 | 8,589 | 8,463 | 79,327 | 24,804 |
| 2024 | 60,922 | 44,301 | 32,972 | 29,760 | 1.19 | 28,090 | 1,069 | 27,021 | 395 | 9,533 | 3,549 | 7,280 | 8,459 | 42,978 | 24,940 |
| 2023 | 26,974 | 15,356 | 4,224 | 4,368 | 0.17 | 5,641 | 1,833 | 3,808 | 398 | 10,039 | 2,709 | 3,389 | 9,703 | 22,101 | 25,070 |
| 2022 | 26,914 | 17,475 | 10,041 | 9,752 | 0.39 | 9,108 | 976 | 8,132 | 399 | 0 | 2,004 | 1,990 | 10,946 | 26,612 | 25,070 |
| 2021 | 16,675 | 10,396 | 4,532 | 4,332 | 0.17 | 5,822 | — | 5,822 | 395 | 0 | 1,397 | 847 | 5,964 | 16,893 | 24,823 |
| 2020 | 10,918 | 6,768 | 2,846 | 2,796 | 0.11 | 4,761 | — | 4,761 | 390 | 0 | 844 | 10,896 | 1,991 | 12,204 | 24,447 |
| 2019 | 11,716 | 7,171 | 3,804 | 4,141 | 0.17 | 3,743 | — | 3,743 | 371 | 1,579 | 557 | 782 | 1,988 | 9,342 | 24,447 |
| 2018 | 9,714 | 5,822 | 3,210 | 3,047 | 0.12 | 3,502 | — | 3,502 | 341 | 909 | 391 | 4,002 | 1,985 | 7,471 | 24,721 |
| 2017 | 6,910 | 4,063 | 1,934 | 1,666 | 0.07 | 1,672 | — | 1,672 | 261 | 739 | 247 | 1,766 | 1,983 | 5,762 | 25,386 |
| 2016 | 5,010 | 2,811 | 747 | 614 | 0.03 | 1,175 | — | 1,175 | 213 | 587 | 204 | 596 | 0 | 4,469 | 22,257 |
| 2015 | 4,682 | 2,599 | 759 | 631 | 0.03 | 906 | — | 906 | 186 | 814 | 158 | 497 | 1,384 | 4,418 | 22,022 |
| 2014 | 4,130 | 2,268 | 496 | 440 | 0.02 | 835 | — | 835 | 181 | 887 | 136 | 1,152 | 1,356 | 4,455 | 23,274 |
| 2013 | 4,280 | 2,226 | 648 | 563 | 0.02 | 824 | — | 824 | 47 | 100 | 137 | 733 | 0 | 4,827 | 24,445 |
| 2012 | 3,998 | 2,057 | 648 | 581 | 0.02 | 909 | 139 | 770 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 668 | — | 4,146 | 24,109 |
| 2011 | 3,543 | 1,409 | 256 | 253 | 0.01 | 676 | 98 | 578 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 665 | — | 3,181 | 23,026 |
| 2010 | 3,326 | 1,177 | -99 | -68 | -0.00 | 488 | 78 | 410 | — | 0 | 107 | 447 | — | 2,665 | 21,497 |
| 2009 | 3,425 | 1,174 | -71 | -30 | -0.00 | 249 | — | 249 | — | 424 | 163 | 418 | — | 2,395 | 21,497 |
| 2008 | 4,098 | 1,869 | 836 | 798 | 0.00 | 1,270 | — | 1,270 | — | 553 | 133 | 727 | — | 2,618 | 23,795 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.