NUE
Nucor · Materials · Steel
$251.83
52w 131.32 – 280.11
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$57.1B
P/E
32.0
P/FCF
—
FCF yield
-0.3%
ROE
8.3%
Shldr yield
2.2%
div 0.9% + bb 1.3%
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.3× across 18 years, NUE would trade near $104/share (25th–75th percentile: $67–$133); it trades at 17.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−7.8%
Rev 5y
+10.0%
Rev 10y
+7.1%
EPS 5y
+26.1%
EPS 10y
+40.5%
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $10.4B | +23.0% | $1.2B | +91.7% | 5.04 | $1.4B |
| Q1'26 | $9.5B | +21.3% | $743.0M | +376.3% | 3.23 | $886.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $7.7B | +8.6% | $378.0M | +31.7% | 1.62 | $799.0M |
| Q3'25 | $8.5B | +14.5% | $607.0M | +142.8% | 2.63 | $1.3B |
| Q2'25 | $8.5B | +4.7% | $603.0M | −6.5% | 2.60 | $732.0M |
| Q1'25 | $7.8B | −3.8% | $156.0M | −81.5% | 0.67 | $364.0M |
| Q4'24 | $7.1B | −8.2% | $287.0M | −63.4% | 1.22 | $733.0M |
| Q3'24 | $7.4B | −15.2% | $250.0M | −78.1% | 1.05 | $1.3B |
| Q2'24 | $8.1B | −15.2% | $645.0M | −55.9% | 2.68 | $1.5B |
| Q1'24 | $8.1B | −6.6% | $845.0M | −25.7% | 3.46 | $460.0M |
| Q4'23 | $7.7B | −11.7% | $785.0M | −37.5% | 3.16 | $1.5B |
| Q3'23 | $8.8B | −16.4% | $1.1B | −32.6% | 4.57 | $2.5B |
| Q2'23 | $9.5B | −19.3% | $1.5B | −43.0% | 5.81 | $1.9B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −7.8% | +10.0% | +7.1% | +4.9% |
| Operating cash flow | −31.5% | +3.7% | +4.1% | +9.2% |
| Free cash flow | −44.1% | −9.6% | +1.8% | +0.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | −36.1% | +26.1% | +40.5% | +21.2% |
| Equity | +4.4% | +14.2% | +10.8% | +7.5% |
| LT debt | +1.5% | +5.6% | +4.8% | +3.2% |
| Diluted shares | −4.3% | −5.3% | −3.2% | −2.1% |
| Stock price | +21.0% | +19.3% | +20.3% | +16.3% |
$100, 3 years ago
$177vs $192 in SPY
21.0% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$242vs $181 in SPY
19.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$636vs $428 in SPY
20.3% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$968vs $803 in SPY
16.3% vs 14.9%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$1.35
$27.2B created / $20.2B retained
Last 10 years
$1.28
$30.9B created / $24.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
11.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.73
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
−$321.0M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
-0.6%
Share count 5y
−1.6%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 39.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 4.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 1.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
10 of 19 checks pass · 53%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/6
- pass
Revenue growth
10.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
26.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
3.7% vs 10.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
1/5
- fail
Net margin
5.4% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
8.3% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
11.6% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
-0.6% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.2B vs NI $1.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/3
- na
Debt payable from cash flow
— · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
33% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.33 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$20.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/2
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- na
Distributions funded by FCF
— · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/3
- fail
FCF yield
-0.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
32.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Negative free cash flow
Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32,494 | — | — | 1,744 | 7.52 | 3,234 | 3,422 | -188 | 512 | 700 | 133 | 2,260 | 6,909 | 20,936 | 231 |
| 2024 | 30,734 | — | — | 2,027 | 8.46 | 3,979 | 3,173 | 806 | 522 | 2,217 | 132 | 3,558 | 5,683 | 20,294 | 239 |
| 2023 | 34,714 | — | — | 4,525 | 18.00 | 7,112 | 2,214 | 4,898 | 515 | 1,554 | 130 | 6,383 | 6,649 | 20,940 | 250 |
| 2022 | 41,512 | — | — | 7,607 | 28.79 | 10,072 | 1,948 | 8,124 | 534 | 2,763 | 137 | 4,281 | 6,614 | 18,415 | 263 |
| 2021 | 36,484 | — | — | 6,827 | 23.16 | 6,231 | 1,622 | 4,609 | 483 | 3,276 | 136 | 2,365 | 4,961 | 14,016 | 293 |
| 2020 | 20,140 | — | — | 721 | 2.36 | 2,697 | 1,543 | 1,154 | 492 | 39 | 74 | 2,640 | 5,272 | 10,789 | 303 |
| 2019 | 22,589 | — | — | 1,271 | 4.14 | 2,809 | 1,477 | 1,332 | 492 | 299 | 90 | 1,535 | 4,291 | 10,358 | 306 |
| 2018 | 25,067 | — | — | 2,361 | 7.42 | 2,394 | 983 | 1,411 | 485 | 854 | 73 | 1,399 | 4,233 | 9,792 | 317 |
| 2017 | 20,252 | — | — | 1,319 | 4.10 | 1,055 | 449 | 607 | 485 | 90 | 64 | 949 | 3,242 | 8,739 | 321 |
| 2016 | 16,208 | — | — | 796 | 2.48 | 1,750 | 605 | 1,145 | 481 | 5 | 57 | 2,046 | 3,739 | 7,880 | 320 |
| 2015 | 16,439 | — | — | 81 | 0.25 | 2,169 | 374 | 1,795 | 479 | 67 | 46 | 1,939 | 4,337 | 7,478 | 321 |
| 2014 | 21,105 | — | — | 679 | 2.11 | 1,343 | 668 | 675 | 475 | 0 | 46 | 1,024 | 4,361 | 7,772 | 320 |
| 2013 | 19,052 | — | — | 488 | 1.52 | 1,078 | 1,197 | -119 | 471 | 0 | 47 | 1,483 | 4,377 | 7,646 | 319 |
| 2012 | 19,429 | — | — | 505 | 1.58 | 1,200 | 948 | 253 | 466 | — | 51 | 1,053 | 3,380 | 7,642 | 318 |
| 2011 | 20,024 | — | — | 778 | 2.45 | 1,031 | 439 | 592 | 462 | — | 49 | 1,201 | 3,630 | 7,475 | 317 |
| 2010 | 15,845 | — | — | 134 | 0.42 | 867 | 339 | 528 | 457 | — | 43 | 1,325 | 4,280 | 7,120 | 317 |
| 2009 | 11,190 | — | — | -294 | -0.94 | 1,173 | 391 | 783 | 443 | 0 | 55 | 2,017 | 3,080 | 7,391 | 315 |
| 2008 | 23,663 | — | — | 1,831 | 5.98 | 2,502 | 1,019 | 1,483 | 658 | 124 | 50 | 2,355 | 3,086 | 7,929 | 305 |
| 2007 | 16,593 | — | — | 1,472 | 4.94 | 1,935 | 520 | 1,415 | 726 | 754 | 44 | 1,394 | — | 5,400 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.