MMarketMath

NOW

Fast growerQuality: High (72/100)2 red flags

ServiceNow · Information Technology · Systems Software

$128.05

52w 81.24 – 194.73

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$132.4B

P/E

76.0

P/FCF

29.0

FCF yield

3.4%

ROE

13.5%

Shldr yield

1.4%

div 0.0% + bb 1.4%

What today's price assumes

At $132.4B, the market is pricing in 12.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 34.8% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $67 · $151 · $218 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 49.7× across 11 years, NOW would trade near $262/share (25th–75th percentile: $227–$308); it trades at 24.3× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+22.4%

Rev 5y

+24.1%

Rev 10y

+29.4%

EPS 5y

+70.2%

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

+27.3%

FCF 10y

+34.8%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2010–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2010: $43.3M
2011: $92.6M
2012: $243.7M
2013: $424.6M
2014: $682.6M
2015: $1.0B
2016: $1.4B
2017: $1.9B
2018: $2.6B
2019: $3.5B
2020: $4.5B
2021: $5.9B
2022: $7.2B
2023: $9.0B
2024: $11.0B
2025: $13.3B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
10
13
16
19
22
25

Net income

2010: −$29.7M
2011: $9.8M
2012: −$37.3M
2013: −$73.7M
2014: −$179.4M
2015: −$198.4M
2016: −$414.2M
2017: −$116.8M
2018: −$26.7M
2019: $626.7M
2020: $119.0M
2021: $230.0M
2022: $325.0M
2023: $1.7B
2024: $1.4B
2025: $1.7B
$0$1.0B
10
13
16
19
22
25

Free cash flow

2010: −$9.1M
2011: $28.7M
2012: $6.7M
2013: $26.4M
2014: $86.6M
2015: $230.3M
2016: $53.5M
2017: $492.4M
2018: $586.6M
2019: $971.0M
2020: $1.4B
2021: $1.8B
2022: $2.2B
2023: $2.7B
2024: $3.4B
2025: $4.6B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
10
13
16
19
22
25

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2010: 563.7M
2011: 683.9M
2012: 683.9M
2013: 683.9M
2017: 864.5M
2018: 898.2M
2019: 996.1M
2020: 1.0B
2021: 1.0B
2022: 1.0B
2023: 1.0B
2024: 1.0B
2025: 1.0B
0500.0M1.0B
10
13
16
19
22
25

Margins

-50%0%50%1012141618202224
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2015: $0
2016: $0
2017: $55.0M
2018: $0
2019: $0
2021: $0
2022: $0
2023: $538.0M
2024: $696.0M
2025: $1.8B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
10
13
16
19
22
25

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$2.0B$4.0B1012141618202224
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $2.1B
Q3'23: $2.3B
Q4'23: $2.4B
Q1'24: $2.6B
Q2'24: $2.6B
Q3'24: $2.8B
Q4'24: $3.0B
Q1'25: $3.1B
Q2'25: $3.2B
Q3'25: $3.4B
Q4'25: $3.6B
Q1'26: $3.8B
Q2'26: $4.0B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $1.0B
Q3'23: $242.0M
Q4'23: $295.0M
Q1'24: $347.0M
Q2'24: $262.0M
Q3'24: $432.0M
Q4'24: $384.0M
Q1'25: $460.0M
Q2'25: $385.0M
Q3'25: $502.0M
Q4'25: $401.0M
Q1'26: $469.0M
Q2'26: $298.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$4.0B+24.0%$298.0M−22.6%0.29$587.0M
Q1'26$3.8B+22.1%$469.0M+2.0%0.45$1.7B
Q4'25 *$3.6B+20.7%$401.0M+4.4%-1.54$2.2B
Q3'25$3.4B+21.8%$502.0M+16.2%2.40$813.0M
Q2'25$3.2B+22.4%$385.0M+46.9%0.37$716.0M
Q1'25$3.1B+18.6%$460.0M+32.6%0.44$1.7B
Q4'24 *$3.0B+21.3%$384.0M+30.2%-3.63$1.6B
Q3'24$2.8B+22.2%$432.0M+78.5%2.07$671.0M
Q2'24$2.6B+22.2%$262.0M−74.9%1.26$620.0M
Q1'24$2.6B+24.2%$347.0M+131.3%1.67$1.3B
Q4'23 *$2.4B+25.6%$295.0M+96.7%-5.30$1.6B
Q3'23$2.3B+25.0%$242.0M+202.5%1.17$311.0M
Q2'23$2.1B+22.7%$1.0B+5120.0%5.08$580.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+22.4%+24.1%+29.4%+46.5%
Operating cash flow+26.0%+25.0%+32.9%
Free cash flow+28.2%+27.3%+34.8%
EPS (diluted)+74.0%+70.2%+56.1%
Equity+37.1%+35.5%+36.8%
LT debt
Diluted shares+0.6%+0.5%+3.6%+4.2%
Stock price+2.8%−0.1%+24.3%

$100, 3 years ago

$109vs $176 in SPY

2.8% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$99vs $181 in SPY

-0.1% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$881vs $412 in SPY

24.3% vs 15.2%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.09

$11.4B created / $5.5B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

42.0%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

4.2%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.44

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

42.7%

Owner earnings

$2.6B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

2.0%

Share count 5y

+4.2%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

17.2%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.19

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 44.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 45.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 20.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

20 of 26 checks pass · 77%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/7

  • Revenue growth

    24.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    70.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    27.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    7 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    fail
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    25.0% vs 24.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    13.2% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    13.7% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    77.5% vs 78.3% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    13.5% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    42.0% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    34.5% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $5.4B vs NI $1.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $13.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

1/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    4.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    43% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    fail
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    40% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    4 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.4% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    76.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    12.8% vs 34.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    1.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy stock compensation

Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202513,27810,2951,8241,7481.675,4448684,5761,8401,9553,72612,9641,047
202410,9848,6971,3641,4251.374,2678523,4156961,7462,3049,6091,042
20238,9717,0507621,7311.683,3986942,7045381,6041,8977,6281,028
20227,2455,6723553250.322,7235502,17301,4011,4705,0321,028
20215,8964,5432572300.222,1913921,79901,1311,7283,6951,026
20204,5193,5321991190.121,7864191,3678701,6772,8341,023
20193,4602,664426270.631,23626597106627762,127996
20182,6091,986-42-27-0.0381122458705445661,110898
20171,9181,419-64-117-0.1364315149255394726779865
20161,391992-382-414-0.50159106540318401541
20151,005676-166-198-0.25318872300258412567
2014683434-152-179-0.241415487154252429
2013425269-66-74-0.1182552666366394684
2012244140-38-37-0.064942728119243684
2011936111100.0037929360-58684
20104327-28-30-0.05-82-9129-71564

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.