NFLX
Netflix · Communication Services · Movies & Entertainment
$80.01
52w 65.08 – 126.71
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$333.2B
P/E
30.2
P/FCF
35.0
FCF yield
2.9%
ROE
41.3%
Shldr yield
2.8%
div 0.0% + bb 2.8%
What today's price assumes
At $333.2B, the market is pricing in 15.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 37.4% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $35 · $78 · $112 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 50.7× across 14 years, NFLX would trade near $124/share (25th–75th percentile: $60–$523); it trades at 32.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+12.6%
Rev 5y
+12.6%
Rev 10y
+20.9%
EPS 5y
+32.9%
EPS 10y
+56.8%
FCF 5y
+37.4%
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $12.6B | +13.4% | $3.4B | +8.8% | 0.80 | $1.7B |
| Q1'26 | $12.2B | +16.2% | $5.3B | +82.8% | 1.23 | $5.3B |
| Q4'25 * | $12.1B | +17.6% | $2.4B | +29.4% | -4.72 | $2.1B |
| Q3'25 | $11.5B | +17.2% | $2.5B | +7.8% | 5.87 | $2.8B |
| Q2'25 | $11.1B | +15.9% | $3.1B | +45.6% | 0.72 | $2.4B |
| Q1'25 | $10.5B | +12.5% | $2.9B | +23.9% | 0.66 | $2.8B |
| Q4'24 * | $10.2B | +16.0% | $1.9B | +99.2% | -13.58 | $1.5B |
| Q3'24 | $9.8B | +15.0% | $2.4B | +40.9% | 5.40 | $2.3B |
| Q2'24 | $9.6B | +16.8% | $2.1B | +44.3% | 4.88 | $1.3B |
| Q1'24 | $9.4B | +14.8% | $2.3B | +78.7% | 5.28 | $2.2B |
| Q4'23 * | $8.8B | +12.5% | $937.8M | +1596.4% | -8.70 | $1.7B |
| Q3'23 | $8.5B | +7.8% | $1.7B | +20.0% | 3.73 | $2.0B |
| Q2'23 | $8.2B | +2.7% | $1.5B | +3.2% | 3.29 | $1.4B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +12.6% | +12.6% | +20.9% | +22.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +71.1% | +33.1% | +79.3% | +27.2% |
| Free cash flow | +80.1% | +37.4% | +56.5% | +27.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | +36.3% | +32.9% | +56.8% | +31.6% |
| Equity | +8.6% | +19.2% | +28.2% | +35.2% |
| LT debt | −2.1% | −3.2% | +19.0% | +30.1% |
| Diluted shares | −1.1% | −0.8% | −0.0% | +0.7% |
| Stock price | +22.6% | +7.0% | +23.4% | +23.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$184vs $176 in SPY
22.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$141vs $181 in SPY
7.0% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$821vs $412 in SPY
23.4% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,383vs $813 in SPY
23.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$3.51
$121.8B created / $34.7B retained
Last 10 years
$7.82
$322.7B created / $41.3B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
25.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.27
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.4y
SBC / FCF
3.9%
Owner earnings
$9.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.7%
Share count 5y
−0.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
4.4%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.05
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 45.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 62.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 28.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
21 of 26 checks pass · 81%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
12.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
32.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
37.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
5 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
33.1% vs 12.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
24.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
29.5% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
41.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
25.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
20.9% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $10.1B vs NI $11.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
67% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.51 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$26.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
6% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
96% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
4 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.9% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
30.2 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
15.3% vs 37.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45,183 | — | 13,327 | 10,981 | 2.53 | 10,149 | 688 | 9,461 | — | 9,127 | 368 | 9,034 | 13,464 | 26,615 | 4,344 |
| 2024 | 39,001 | — | 10,418 | 8,712 | 1.98 | 7,361 | 440 | 6,922 | — | 6,264 | 273 | 7,805 | 13,798 | 24,744 | 4,393 |
| 2023 | 33,723 | — | 6,954 | 5,408 | 1.20 | 7,274 | 349 | 6,926 | — | 6,045 | 339 | 7,117 | 14,143 | 20,588 | 4,495 |
| 2022 | 31,616 | — | 5,633 | 4,492 | 1.00 | 2,026 | 408 | 1,619 | — | 0 | 575 | 5,147 | 14,353 | 20,777 | 4,495 |
| 2021 | 29,698 | — | 6,195 | 5,116 | 1.13 | 393 | 525 | -132 | — | 600 | 403 | 6,028 | 14,693 | 15,849 | 4,536 |
| 2020 | 24,996 | — | 4,585 | 2,761 | 0.61 | 2,427 | 498 | 1,929 | — | 0 | 415 | 8,206 | 15,809 | 11,065 | 4,524 |
| 2019 | 20,156 | — | 2,604 | 1,867 | 0.41 | -2,887 | 253 | -3,140 | — | 0 | 405 | 5,018 | 14,759 | 7,582 | 4,500 |
| 2018 | 15,794 | — | 1,605 | 1,211 | 0.27 | -2,680 | 174 | -2,854 | — | — | 321 | 3,794 | 10,360 | 5,239 | 4,495 |
| 2017 | 11,693 | — | 839 | 559 | 0.13 | -1,786 | 173 | -1,959 | — | — | 182 | 2,823 | 6,499 | 3,582 | 4,450 |
| 2016 | 8,831 | — | 380 | 187 | 0.04 | -1,474 | 108 | -1,582 | — | — | 174 | 1,468 | 3,364 | 2,680 | 4,369 |
| 2015 | 6,780 | — | 306 | 123 | 0.03 | -749 | 91 | -841 | — | — | 125 | 1,809 | 2,371 | 2,223 | 4,347 |
| 2014 | 5,505 | — | 403 | 267 | 0.06 | 16 | 70 | -53 | — | — | 115 | 1,114 | 886 | 1,858 | 4,302 |
| 2013 | 4,375 | — | 228 | 112 | 0.03 | 98 | 54 | 44 | — | 0 | 73 | 605 | 500 | 1,334 | 4,236 |
| 2012 | 3,609 | — | 50 | 17 | 0.00 | 22 | 40 | -19 | — | 0 | 74 | 290 | 200 | 745 | 4,236 |
| 2011 | 3,205 | 1,165 | 376 | 226 | 0.06 | 318 | 50 | 268 | — | 200 | 62 | 508 | — | 643 | 3,910 |
| 2010 | 2,163 | 805 | 284 | 161 | 0.04 | 276 | 34 | 243 | — | 210 | 28 | 194 | — | 290 | 3,906 |
| 2009 | 1,670 | 591 | 192 | 116 | 0.03 | 325 | 46 | 279 | — | 324 | 13 | 134 | 200 | 199 | 4,201 |
| 2008 | 1,365 | 454 | 122 | 83 | 0.02 | 284 | 44 | 240 | — | 200 | 12 | 140 | 0 | 347 | 4,519 |
| 2007 | 1,205 | 419 | 92 | 67 | 0.01 | 277 | 44 | 233 | — | 100 | 12 | 177 | — | 430 | 4,955 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.