NEM
Newmont · Materials · Gold
$131.84
52w 70.88 – 134.88
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$138.9B
P/E
18.6
P/FCF
18.1
FCF yield
5.5%
ROE
20.9%
Shldr yield
2.6%
div 0.8% + bb 1.7%
What today's price assumes
At $138.9B, the market is pricing in 6.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 24.2% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $106 · $237 · $341 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 8.0× across 14 years, NEM would trade near $79/share (25th–75th percentile: $66–$98); it trades at 13.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+23.9%
Rev 5y
+14.5%
Rev 10y
+14.1%
EPS 5y
+12.7%
EPS 10y
+31.0%
FCF 5y
+15.3%
FCF 10y
+24.2%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2012–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.1B | +15.1% | $2.2B | +6.8% | 2.06 | $2.9B |
| Q1'26 | $7.3B | +45.8% | $3.3B | +72.5% | 3.00 | $3.8B |
| Q4'25 * | $6.8B | +20.6% | $1.3B | −7.3% | 1.19 | $3.6B |
| Q3'25 | $5.5B | +20.0% | $1.8B | +98.7% | 1.67 | $2.3B |
| Q2'25 | $5.3B | +20.8% | $2.1B | +141.6% | 1.85 | $2.4B |
| Q1'25 | $5.0B | +24.5% | $1.9B | +1012.4% | 1.68 | $2.0B |
| Q4'24 * | $5.7B | +42.8% | $1.4B | — | 1.23 | $2.5B |
| Q3'24 | $4.6B | +84.7% | $922.0M | +483.5% | 0.80 | $1.6B |
| Q2'24 | $4.4B | +64.1% | $853.0M | +450.3% | 0.74 | $1.4B |
| Q1'24 | $4.0B | +50.2% | $170.0M | −51.6% | 0.15 | $776.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $4.0B | +23.7% | −$3.2B | — | -3.80 | $616.0M |
| Q3'23 | $2.5B | −5.4% | $158.0M | −25.8% | 0.20 | $1.0B |
| Q2'23 | $2.7B | −12.3% | $155.0M | −59.9% | 0.19 | $663.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +23.9% | +14.5% | +14.1% | — |
| Operating cash flow | +47.5% | +16.2% | +17.0% | — |
| Free cash flow | +88.5% | +15.3% | +24.2% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +44.6% | +12.7% | +31.0% | — |
| Equity | +20.5% | +8.0% | +11.6% | — |
| LT debt | −2.8% | −1.4% | −1.3% | — |
| Diluted shares | +11.7% | +6.6% | +7.9% | — |
| Stock price | +52.9% | +21.3% | +16.0% | +7.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$357vs $176 in SPY
52.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$263vs $181 in SPY
21.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$441vs $412 in SPY
16.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$295vs $813 in SPY
7.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$55.14
$83.1B created / $1.5B retained
Last 10 years
$25.67
$115.9B created / $4.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
26.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
8.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.28
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.7y
SBC / FCF
1.4%
Owner earnings
$7.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.5%
Share count 5y
+6.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 31.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 65.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 20.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
21 of 24 checks pass · 88%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
14.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
12.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
15.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
6 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
16.2% vs 14.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
31.3% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
20.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
26.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
32.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $10.3B vs NI $7.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
150% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.15 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$33.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
6.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
47% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
6 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.5% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
18.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
6.3% vs 24.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22,669 | — | — | 7,085 | 6.39 | 10,334 | 3,035 | 7,299 | 1,106 | 2,303 | 99 | 7,647 | 5,115 | 33,867 | 1,108 |
| 2024 | 18,682 | — | — | 3,348 | 2.92 | 6,363 | 3,402 | 2,961 | 1,145 | 1,246 | 89 | 3,619 | 7,552 | 29,928 | 1,148 |
| 2023 | 11,812 | — | — | -2,494 | -2.97 | 2,763 | 2,666 | 97 | 1,415 | 0 | 80 | 3,002 | 6,951 | 29,027 | 841 |
| 2022 | 11,915 | — | — | -429 | -0.54 | 3,220 | 2,131 | 1,089 | 1,746 | 0 | 76 | 2,877 | 5,571 | 19,354 | 795 |
| 2021 | 12,222 | — | — | 1,166 | 1.46 | 4,279 | 1,653 | 2,626 | 1,757 | 525 | 72 | 4,992 | 5,565 | 22,022 | 801 |
| 2020 | 11,497 | — | — | 2,829 | 3.51 | 4,882 | 1,302 | 3,580 | 834 | 521 | 84 | 5,540 | 5,480 | 23,008 | 806 |
| 2019 | 9,740 | — | — | 2,805 | 3.81 | 2,866 | 1,463 | 1,403 | 889 | 479 | 121 | 2,243 | 6,138 | 21,420 | 737 |
| 2018 | 7,253 | — | — | 341 | 0.64 | 1,827 | 1,032 | 795 | 301 | 98 | 76 | 3,397 | 3,418 | 10,502 | 535 |
| 2017 | 7,379 | — | — | -114 | -0.21 | 2,124 | 866 | 1,258 | 134 | — | 70 | 3,259 | 4,040 | 10,535 | 535 |
| 2016 | 6,680 | — | — | -629 | -1.18 | 2,786 | 1,133 | 1,653 | 67 | — | 70 | 2,756 | 4,049 | 10,721 | 532 |
| 2015 | 6,085 | — | — | 220 | 0.43 | 2,145 | 1,311 | 834 | 52 | — | 77 | 2,363 | 5,854 | 11,350 | 516 |
| 2014 | 6,819 | — | — | 508 | 1.02 | 1,438 | 1,040 | 398 | 114 | — | 51 | 2,231 | 6,480 | 10,274 | 499 |
| 2013 | 8,414 | — | — | -2,534 | -5.09 | 1,543 | 1,900 | -357 | 610 | — | 51 | 1,312 | 6,145 | 9,993 | 498 |
| 2012 | 9,964 | — | — | 1,802 | 3.61 | 2,372 | 3,210 | -838 | 695 | — | 51 | 1,561 | 6,288 | 13,773 | 499 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.