NEE
NextEra Energy · Utilities · Multi-Utilities
$78.51
52w 74.41 – 98.75
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$163.7B
P/E
23.8
P/FCF
13.0
FCF yield
7.7%
ROE
12.5%
Shldr yield
2.9%
div 2.9% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $163.7B, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 9.2% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $91 · $133 · $166 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 10.2× across 14 years, NEE would trade near $61/share (25th–75th percentile: $28–$85); it trades at 13.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+3.9%
Rev 5y
+8.7%
Rev 10y
+4.7%
EPS 5y
+17.4%
EPS 10y
+9.6%
FCF 5y
+9.4%
FCF 10y
+9.2%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $6.1B | +1.7% | $2.2B | +161.9% | 1.04 | $2.6B |
| Q4'25 * | $6.0B | +11.1% | $1.5B | +27.6% | 0.74 | $2.5B |
| Q3'25 | $7.4B | +10.4% | $2.4B | +31.6% | 1.18 | $4.0B |
| Q2'25 | $6.4B | +6.7% | $2.0B | +25.0% | 0.98 | $3.2B |
| Q1'25 | $6.0B | +11.1% | $833.0M | −63.3% | 0.40 | $2.8B |
| Q4'24 * | $5.4B | −3.6% | $1.2B | −0.5% | 0.58 | $2.0B |
| Q3'24 | $6.7B | −6.9% | $1.9B | +51.9% | 0.90 | $4.3B |
| Q2'24 | $6.0B | −4.8% | $1.6B | −42.0% | 0.79 | $3.9B |
| Q1'24 | $5.4B | −5.3% | $2.3B | +8.7% | 1.10 | $3.1B |
| Q4'23 * | $5.6B | −1.8% | $1.2B | −20.5% | 0.58 | $2.9B |
| Q3'23 | $7.2B | +12.5% | $1.2B | −28.1% | 0.60 | $3.7B |
| Q2'23 | $6.3B | +6.8% | $2.8B | +102.5% | 1.38 | $3.1B |
| Q1'23 | $5.7B | +14.0% | $2.1B | — | 1.04 | $1.7B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.9% | +8.7% | +4.7% | +3.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +14.8% | +9.4% | +9.2% | +8.2% |
| Free cash flow | +14.8% | +9.4% | +9.2% | +8.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | +16.3% | +17.4% | +9.6% | +8.0% |
| Equity | +11.7% | +8.4% | +9.9% | +9.3% |
| LT debt | +17.5% | +16.4% | +11.0% | +11.3% |
| Diluted shares | +1.5% | +1.0% | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| Stock price | +13.5% | +0.9% | +12.1% | +15.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$146vs $192 in SPY
13.5% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$104vs $181 in SPY
0.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$314vs $428 in SPY
12.1% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$840vs $803 in SPY
15.2% vs 14.9%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.24
$41.3B created / $9.7B retained
Last 10 years
$9.84
$155.6B created / $15.8B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
8.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.30
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
7.2y
SBC / FCF
1.5%
Owner earnings
$12.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
7.6%
Share count 5y
+0.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
605.4%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$7.32
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 121.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 7.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 8.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 25 checks pass · 72%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
8.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
17.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
9.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
9.4% vs 8.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
26.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
32.1% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
12.5% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
8.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
48.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $12.5B vs NI $6.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
7.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
3% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
1.64 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$54.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
0.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
37% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
2 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
7.7% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
23.8 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
1.8% vs 9.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25,800 | — | 8,280 | 6,835 | 3.30 | 12,485 | — | 12,485 | 4,680 | — | 185 | 2,812 | 89,556 | 54,608 | 2,071 |
| 2024 | 23,500 | — | 7,479 | 6,946 | 3.37 | 13,260 | — | 13,260 | 4,235 | — | 138 | 1,487 | 72,385 | 50,101 | 2,059 |
| 2023 | 24,800 | — | 10,237 | 7,310 | 3.60 | 11,301 | — | 11,301 | 3,782 | — | 139 | 2,690 | 61,405 | 47,468 | 2,031 |
| 2022 | 23,000 | — | 4,081 | 4,147 | 2.10 | 8,262 | — | 8,262 | 3,352 | — | 142 | 1,601 | 55,256 | 39,229 | 1,979 |
| 2021 | 18,800 | — | 2,913 | 3,573 | 1.81 | 7,553 | — | 7,553 | 3,024 | — | 119 | 639 | 50,960 | 37,202 | 1,972 |
| 2020 | 17,000 | — | 5,116 | 2,919 | 1.48 | 7,983 | — | 7,983 | 2,743 | — | 107 | 1,105 | 41,944 | 36,513 | 1,969 |
| 2019 | 17,500 | — | 5,353 | 3,769 | 1.94 | 8,155 | — | 8,155 | 2,408 | — | 100 | 600 | 37,543 | 37,005 | 1,942 |
| 2018 | 15,400 | — | 4,280 | 6,638 | 3.47 | 6,593 | — | 6,593 | 2,101 | — | 82 | 638 | 26,782 | 34,144 | 1,908 |
| 2012 | 14,256 | — | 3,276 | 1,911 | 1.00 | 3,992 | — | 3,992 | 1,004 | 19 | 57 | 438 | 23,177 | 16,068 | 1,908 |
| 2011 | 15,341 | — | 3,261 | 1,923 | 1.01 | 4,074 | — | 4,074 | 920 | 375 | 49 | 329 | 20,810 | 14,943 | 1,907 |
| 2010 | 15,317 | — | 3,227 | 1,957 | 1.04 | 3,834 | — | 3,834 | 823 | 0 | 57 | 377 | 18,013 | 14,461 | 1,880 |
| 2009 | 15,643 | — | 2,594 | 1,615 | 0.87 | 4,463 | — | 4,463 | 766 | 0 | 51 | 238 | 16,300 | 12,967 | 1,853 |
| 2008 | 16,410 | — | 2,825 | 1,639 | 0.89 | 3,403 | — | 3,403 | 714 | — | 47 | 238 | 13,833 | 11,681 | 1,833 |
| 2007 | 15,263 | — | 2,283 | — | 0.72 | 3,593 | — | 3,593 | -654 | — | — | 290 | — | 10,735 | 1,823 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.