MU
Micron Technology · Information Technology · Semiconductors
$910.43
52w 114.25 – 1,255.00
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$1.03T
P/E
123.9
P/FCF
634.5
FCF yield
0.2%
ROE
15.8%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $1.03T, the market is pricing in 58.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 3.5% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $22 · $22 · $27 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 5.4× across 17 years, MU would trade near $84/share (25th–75th percentile: $51–$109); it trades at 58.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+6.7%
Rev 5y
+11.8%
Rev 10y
+8.7%
EPS 5y
+26.2%
EPS 10y
+11.9%
FCF 5y
+82.2%
FCF 10y
+3.5%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $41.5B | +345.7% | $28.2B | +1398.3% | 24.67 | $25.4B |
| Q2'26 | $23.9B | +196.3% | $13.8B | +770.8% | 12.07 | $11.9B |
| Q1'26 | $13.6B | +56.7% | $5.2B | +180.2% | 4.60 | $8.4B |
| Q4'25 * | $11.3B | +46.0% | $3.2B | +260.9% | 2.83 | $5.7B |
| Q3'25 | $9.3B | +36.6% | $1.9B | +467.8% | 1.68 | $4.6B |
| Q2'25 | $8.1B | +38.3% | $1.6B | +99.6% | 1.41 | $3.9B |
| Q1'25 | $8.7B | +84.3% | $1.9B | — | 1.67 | $3.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $7.8B | +93.3% | $887.0M | — | 0.81 | $3.4B |
| Q3'24 | $6.8B | +81.5% | $332.0M | — | 0.30 | $2.5B |
| Q2'24 | $5.8B | +57.7% | $793.0M | — | 0.71 | $1.2B |
| Q1'24 | $4.7B | +15.7% | −$1.2B | — | -1.12 | $1.4B |
| Q4'23 * | $4.0B | −39.6% | −$1.4B | −195.8% | -1.31 | $249.0M |
| Q3'23 | $3.8B | −56.6% | −$1.9B | −172.2% | -1.73 | $24.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.7% | +11.8% | +8.7% | +10.4% |
| Operating cash flow | +4.9% | +16.1% | +12.9% | +12.3% |
| Free cash flow | −18.8% | +82.2% | +3.5% | −2.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | −0.7% | +26.2% | +11.9% | +9.9% |
| Equity | +2.8% | +6.8% | +16.0% | +13.6% |
| LT debt | +24.2% | +13.4% | +6.3% | +13.8% |
| Diluted shares | +0.1% | −0.1% | −0.4% | +0.5% |
| Stock price | +136.1% | +66.2% | +49.7% | +40.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$1,316vs $176 in SPY
136.1% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$1,267vs $181 in SPY
66.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$5,662vs $412 in SPY
49.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$15,798vs $813 in SPY
40.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$8.49
$136.1B created / $16.0B retained
Last 10 years
$3.88
$170.8B created / $44.0B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
26.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.7%
MC vs 10× OCF
6.04
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
6.9y
SBC / FCF
58.3%
Owner earnings
$696.0M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.1%
Share count 5y
+2.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$2.77
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 33.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 49.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 16.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 27 checks pass · 63%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
11.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
26.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
82.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
16.1% vs 11.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/7
- pass
Net margin
22.8% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
26.1% · ≥ 10%
- fail
Gross margin stable or rising
39.8% vs 45.2% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
15.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
26.7% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
4.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $17.5B vs NI $8.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
6.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
84% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.21 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$54.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
5% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
2.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
58% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
31% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
0.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
123.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
58.1% vs 3.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Margin compression
Gross margin has fallen by more than 5 points over the last three years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37,378 | 14,873 | 9,770 | 8,539 | 7.59 | 17,525 | 15,857 | 1,668 | 522 | 0 | 972 | 9,642 | 11,533 | 54,165 | 1,125 |
| 2024 | 25,111 | 5,613 | 1,304 | 778 | 0.70 | 8,507 | 8,386 | 121 | 513 | 300 | 833 | 7,041 | 11,343 | 45,131 | 1,118 |
| 2023 | 15,540 | -1,416 | -5,745 | -5,833 | -5.34 | 1,559 | 7,676 | -6,117 | 504 | 425 | 596 | 8,577 | 12,049 | 44,120 | 1,093 |
| 2022 | 30,758 | 13,898 | 9,702 | 8,687 | 7.75 | 15,181 | 12,067 | 3,114 | 461 | 2,432 | 514 | 8,262 | 6,020 | 49,907 | 1,122 |
| 2021 | 27,705 | 10,423 | 6,283 | 5,861 | 5.14 | 12,468 | 10,030 | 2,438 | 0 | 1,200 | 378 | 7,763 | 5,968 | 43,933 | 1,141 |
| 2020 | 21,435 | 6,552 | 3,003 | 2,687 | 2.37 | 8,306 | 8,223 | 83 | 0 | 176 | 328 | 7,624 | 6,157 | 38,996 | 1,131 |
| 2019 | 23,406 | 10,702 | 7,376 | 6,313 | 5.51 | 13,189 | 9,780 | 3,409 | — | 2,729 | 243 | 7,152 | 4,541 | 35,881 | 1,143 |
| 2018 | 30,391 | 17,891 | 14,994 | 14,135 | 11.51 | 17,400 | 8,879 | 8,521 | — | 71 | 198 | 6,506 | 3,777 | 32,294 | 1,229 |
| 2017 | 20,322 | 8,436 | 5,868 | 5,089 | 4.41 | 8,153 | 4,734 | 3,419 | — | 36 | 215 | 5,109 | 9,872 | 18,621 | 1,154 |
| 2016 | 12,399 | 2,505 | 168 | -276 | -0.27 | 3,168 | 5,817 | -2,649 | — | 148 | 191 | 4,140 | 9,154 | 12,080 | 1,036 |
| 2015 | 16,192 | 5,215 | 2,998 | 2,899 | 2.47 | 5,208 | 4,021 | 1,187 | — | 884 | 168 | 2,287 | 6,252 | 12,302 | 1,170 |
| 2014 | 16,358 | 5,437 | 3,087 | 3,045 | 2.54 | 5,699 | 3,107 | 2,592 | — | 76 | 115 | 4,150 | 4,893 | 10,760 | 1,198 |
| 2013 | 9,073 | 1,847 | 236 | 1,190 | 1.13 | 1,811 | 1,442 | 369 | — | 5 | 91 | 2,880 | 4,452 | 9,142 | 1,057 |
| 2012 | 8,234 | 968 | -612 | -1,032 | -1.04 | 2,114 | 1,699 | 415 | — | 6 | 87 | 2,459 | 3,038 | 7,700 | 991 |
| 2011 | 8,788 | 1,758 | 761 | 167 | 0.17 | 2,484 | 2,550 | -66 | — | 163 | 76 | 2,160 | 1,861 | 8,470 | 1,008 |
| 2010 | 8,482 | 2,714 | 1,589 | 1,850 | 1.85 | 3,096 | 616 | 2,480 | — | 21 | 93 | 2,913 | 1,648 | 8,020 | 1,051 |
| 2009 | 4,803 | -440 | -1,676 | -1,882 | -2.35 | 1,206 | 488 | 718 | — | 2 | 44 | 1,485 | — | 6,939 | 801 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.