MMarketMath

MSI

StalwartQuality: High (87/100)

Motorola Solutions · Information Technology · Communications Equipment

$481.52

52w 359.36 – 493.57

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$79.7B

P/E

36.1

P/FCF

30.2

FCF yield

3.3%

ROE

89.4%

Shldr yield

2.4%

div 0.9% + bb 1.5%

What today's price assumes

At $79.7B, the market is pricing in 13.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 11.8% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $237 · $419 · $522 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 16.9× across 17 years, MSI would trade near $290/share (25th–75th percentile: $218–$399); it trades at 28.1× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+8.6%

Rev 5y

+9.5%

Rev 10y

+7.4%

EPS 5y

+18.5%

EPS 10y

+15.5%

FCF 5y

+13.0%

FCF 10y

+11.8%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $36.6B
2008: $25.1B
2009: $6.9B
2010: $7.6B
2011: $8.2B
2012: $6.3B
2013: $6.2B
2014: $5.9B
2015: $5.7B
2016: $6.0B
2017: $6.4B
2018: $7.3B
2019: $7.9B
2020: $7.4B
2021: $8.2B
2022: $9.1B
2023: $10.0B
2024: $10.8B
2025: $11.7B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: −$49.0M
2008: −$4.2B
2009: −$51.0M
2010: $633.0M
2011: $1.2B
2012: $881.0M
2013: $1.1B
2014: $1.3B
2015: $610.0M
2016: $560.0M
2017: −$155.0M
2018: $966.0M
2019: $868.0M
2020: $949.0M
2021: $1.2B
2022: $1.4B
2023: $1.7B
2024: $1.6B
2025: $2.2B
−$4.0B−$2.0B$0$2.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $258.0M
2008: −$733.0M
2009: $491.0M
2010: $611.0M
2011: $662.0M
2012: $504.0M
2013: $386.0M
2014: −$818.0M
2015: $846.0M
2016: $894.0M
2017: $1.1B
2018: $878.0M
2019: $1.6B
2020: $1.4B
2021: $1.6B
2022: $1.6B
2023: $1.8B
2024: $2.1B
2025: $2.6B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 323.6M
2008: 323.6M
2009: 329.9M
2010: 338.1M
2011: 339.7M
2012: 297.4M
2013: 270.5M
2014: 245.6M
2015: 201.8M
2016: 173.1M
2017: 162.9M
2018: 172.0M
2019: 175.6M
2020: 174.1M
2021: 173.6M
2022: 171.9M
2023: 172.1M
2024: 170.8M
2025: 169.0M
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-20%0%20%40%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $3.5B
2008: $591.0M
2009: $114.0M
2010: $0
2011: $1.2B
2012: $2.7B
2013: $2.0B
2014: $2.9B
2015: $3.5B
2016: $1.1B
2017: $790.0M
2018: $469.0M
2019: $694.0M
2020: $1.0B
2021: $1.0B
2022: $1.4B
2023: $1.4B
2024: $898.0M
2025: $1.9B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $2.4B
Q3'23: $2.6B
Q4'23: $2.8B
Q1'24: $2.4B
Q2'24: $2.6B
Q3'24: $2.8B
Q4'24: $3.0B
Q1'25: $2.5B
Q2'25: $2.8B
Q3'25: $3.0B
Q4'25: $3.4B
Q1'26: $2.7B
Q2'26: $3.1B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $371.0M
Q3'23: $464.0M
Q4'23: $596.0M
Q1'24: −$39.0M
Q2'24: $443.0M
Q3'24: $562.0M
Q4'24: $611.0M
Q1'25: $430.0M
Q2'25: $513.0M
Q3'25: $562.0M
Q4'25: $649.0M
Q1'26: $366.0M
Q2'26: $557.0M
$0$200.0M$400.0M$600.0M
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$3.1B+13.3%$557.0M+8.6%3.33$469.0M
Q1'26$2.7B+7.4%$366.0M−14.9%2.18$451.0M
Q4'25 *$3.4B+12.3%$649.0M+6.2%3.85$1.3B
Q3'25$3.0B+7.8%$562.0M0.0%3.33$798.0M
Q2'25$2.8B+5.2%$513.0M+15.8%3.04$273.0M
Q1'25$2.5B+5.8%$430.0M—2.53$510.0M
Q4'24 *$3.0B+5.7%$611.0M+2.5%3.57$1.1B
Q3'24$2.8B+9.2%$562.0M+21.1%3.29$759.0M
Q2'24$2.6B+9.4%$443.0M+19.4%2.60$180.0M
Q1'24$2.4B+10.0%−$39.0M−114.0%-0.23$382.0M
Q4'23 *$2.8B+5.2%$596.0M+1.2%3.47$1.2B
Q3'23$2.6B+7.7%$464.0M+66.3%2.70$714.0M
Q2'23$2.4B+12.3%$371.0M+62.7%2.15$93.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+8.6%+9.5%+7.4%+2.9%
Operating cash flow+15.9%+12.0%+10.8%+8.8%
Free cash flow+18.0%+13.0%+11.8%+10.1%
EPS (diluted)+17.2%+18.5%+15.5%+13.7%
Equity+174.9%−1.1%−1.1%−9.6%
LT debt+11.8%+10.3%+6.8%+9.7%
Diluted shares−0.6%−0.6%−1.8%−4.5%
Stock price+20.6%+15.9%+21.9%+19.6%

$100, 3 years ago

$175vs $176 in SPY

20.6% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$209vs $181 in SPY

15.9% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$726vs $412 in SPY

21.9% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,472vs $813 in SPY

19.6% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$7.97

$40.4B created / $5.1B retained

Last 10 years

$8.63

$56.2B created / $6.5B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

26.2%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.3%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.74

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

3.3y

SBC / FCF

11.4%

Owner earnings

$2.3B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

2.9%

Share count 5y

−3.5%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

10.0%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.03

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 57.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 19.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 11.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

22 of 27 checks pass · 81%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    9.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    18.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    13.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    12.0% vs 9.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    18.4% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    25.6% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    51.7% vs 46.4% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass

  • Return on equity

    89.4% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    26.2% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    22.0% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $2.8B vs NI $2.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    3.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    14% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    3.49 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $2.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    12% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -3.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    11% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    73% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.3% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    36.1 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    13.3% vs 11.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    2.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202511,6826,0352,9882,15412.752,8372652,5727281,1542931,1658,4132,410169
202410,8175,5122,6881,5779.232,3912572,1346542442432,1025,6751,703171
20239,9784,9702,2941,7099.932,0442531,7915898042121,7054,705724172
20229,1124,2291,6611,3637.931,8232561,5675308361721,3256,013116172
20218,1714,0401,6671,2457.171,8372431,5944825281291,8745,688-40174
20207,4143,6081,3839495.451,6132171,3964366121291,2545,163-558174
20197,8873,9311,5818684.951,8232481,5753793151181,0015,113-700176
20187,3433,4801,2559665.621,075197878337132731,2575,289-1,293172
20176,3803,0241,284-155-0.951,3462271,119307483661,2054,419-1,742163
20166,0382,8691,0485603.241,165271894280842689674,392-964173
20155,6952,7199946103.021,0211758462773,177781,9804,345-106202
20145,8812,831-1,0061,2995.29-637181-8183182,546943,9543,3962,735246
20136,2273,1099471,0994.065551693862921,6941203,2252,4573,659271
20126,2693,1949208812.966741705042702,4381461,4681,8593,265297
20118,2034,1468581,1583.41848186662721,1101681,8811,1305,214340
20107,6173,8127516331.87803192611001444,2082,09810,885338
20096,9473,477567-51-0.1562713649111401372,8693,3659,775330
200825,1096,938-2,542-4,244-13.11-325408-7334531382363,0644,0929,507324
200736,6229,952-553-49-0.147855272584683,0353152,752——324

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗