MS
Morgan Stanley · Financials · Investment Banking & Brokerage
$190.02
52w 151.88 – 232.25
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$298.4B
P/E
17.7
P/FCF
—
FCF yield
-6.0%
ROE
15.1%
Shldr yield
2.2%
div 2.2% + bb 0.0%
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 1.7× across 11 years, MS would trade near $1/share (25th–75th percentile: $1–$8); it trades at 219.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+9.6%
Rev 5y
+7.7%
Rev 10y
+7.2%
EPS 5y
+9.6%
EPS 10y
+13.4%
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $21.3B | +27.1% | $5.6B | +57.7% | 3.46 | −$2.7B |
| Q1'26 | $20.6B | +16.0% | $5.6B | +29.0% | 3.43 | −$7.1B |
| Q4'25 * | $17.9B | +10.3% | $4.4B | +18.4% | 2.68 | −$2.4B |
| Q3'25 | $18.2B | +18.5% | $4.6B | +44.6% | 2.80 | −$3.3B |
| Q2'25 | $16.8B | +11.8% | $3.5B | +15.1% | 2.13 | $11.8B |
| Q1'25 | $17.7B | +17.2% | $4.3B | +26.5% | 2.60 | −$24.0B |
| Q4'24 * | $16.2B | +25.8% | $3.7B | +144.8% | 2.23 | $11.8B |
| Q3'24 | $15.4B | +15.9% | $3.2B | +32.4% | 1.88 | −$17.3B |
| Q2'24 | $15.0B | +11.6% | $3.1B | +41.0% | 1.82 | $2.5B |
| Q1'24 | $15.1B | +4.3% | $3.4B | +14.5% | 2.02 | $4.4B |
| Q4'23 * | $12.9B | +1.2% | $1.5B | −32.2% | 0.86 | −$17.8B |
| Q3'23 | $13.3B | +2.2% | $2.4B | −8.5% | 1.38 | $3.7B |
| Q2'23 | $13.5B | +2.5% | $2.2B | −12.5% | 1.24 | −$9.7B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +9.6% | +7.7% | +7.2% | +5.6% |
| Operating cash flow | −65.8% | −49.3% | +2.3% | −22.1% |
| Free cash flow | −65.8% | −49.3% | +2.3% | −22.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | +18.4% | +9.6% | +13.4% | +9.5% |
| Equity | +3.7% | +1.9% | +4.0% | +4.6% |
| LT debt | +13.5% | +9.9% | +8.3% | +3.9% |
| Diluted shares | −2.4% | −0.4% | −2.0% | +0.8% |
| Stock price | +42.7% | +16.6% | +22.2% | +19.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$291vs $192 in SPY
42.7% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$215vs $181 in SPY
16.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$745vs $428 in SPY
22.2% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,523vs $803 in SPY
19.9% vs 14.9%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$5.25
$196.1B created / $37.3B retained
Last 10 years
$3.75
$250.2B created / $66.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
-3.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
—
MC vs 10× OCF
—
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
−$19.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
-6.6%
Share count 5y
+2.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Checklist
9 of 19 checks pass · 47%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/6
- pass
Revenue growth
7.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
9.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
5 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-49.3% vs 7.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
2/5
- pass
Net margin
23.9% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
15.1% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
-3.9% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
-25.3% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF −$17.9B vs NI $16.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/3
- na
Debt payable from cash flow
— · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
33% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
3.06 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$111.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
0/2
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
2.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- na
Distributions funded by FCF
— · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/3
- fail
FCF yield
-6.0% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
17.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Negative free cash flow
Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 70,645 | — | — | 16,861 | 10.21 | -17,889 | — | -17,889 | 6,593 | — | 1,926 | 111,695 | 341,681 | 111,632 | 1,592 |
| 2024 | 61,761 | — | — | 13,390 | 7.95 | 1,362 | — | 1,362 | 6,138 | — | 1,622 | 105,386 | 284,307 | 104,511 | 1,611 |
| 2023 | 54,143 | — | — | 9,087 | 5.18 | -33,536 | — | -33,536 | 5,763 | — | 1,709 | 89,232 | 260,544 | 99,038 | 1,646 |
| 2022 | 53,668 | — | — | 11,029 | 6.15 | -6,397 | — | -6,397 | 5,401 | — | 1,875 | 128,127 | 233,867 | 100,141 | 1,713 |
| 2021 | 59,755 | — | — | 15,034 | 8.03 | 33,971 | — | 33,971 | 4,171 | — | 2,085 | 127,725 | 227,363 | 105,441 | 1,814 |
| 2020 | 48,757 | — | — | 10,996 | 6.46 | -25,231 | — | -25,231 | 2,739 | — | 1,312 | 105,654 | 213,388 | 101,781 | 1,624 |
| 2019 | 41,538 | — | — | 9,042 | 5.19 | 40,773 | — | 40,773 | 2,627 | — | 1,153 | 82,171 | 190,060 | 81,549 | 1,640 |
| 2018 | 40,107 | — | — | 8,748 | 4.73 | 7,305 | — | 7,305 | 2,375 | — | 920 | 87,196 | 188,117 | 80,246 | 1,738 |
| 2017 | 37,945 | — | — | 6,111 | 3.07 | -4,505 | — | -4,505 | 2,085 | — | 1,026 | 80,395 | 191,063 | 77,391 | 1,821 |
| 2016 | 34,631 | — | — | 5,979 | 2.92 | 5,383 | — | 5,383 | 1,746 | — | 1,136 | 77,360 | 164,775 | 76,050 | 1,887 |
| 2015 | 35,155 | — | — | 6,127 | 2.90 | -4,463 | — | -4,463 | 1,455 | — | 1,104 | 85,552 | 153,768 | 75,182 | 1,953 |
| 2014 | 34,275 | — | — | 3,467 | 1.60 | 1,086 | — | 1,086 | 904 | — | 1,260 | 87,591 | 152,772 | 70,900 | 1,971 |
| 2013 | 32,493 | — | — | 2,932 | 1.36 | 35,009 | — | 35,009 | 475 | 691 | 1,180 | 59,883 | 153,575 | 65,921 | 1,957 |
| 2012 | 26,178 | — | — | 68 | -0.02 | 24,548 | — | 24,548 | 469 | 227 | 891 | 46,904 | 169,571 | 62,109 | 1,919 |
| 2011 | 32,227 | — | — | 4,110 | 1.23 | 15,892 | — | 15,892 | 834 | 317 | 1,300 | 47,312 | 184,234 | 62,049 | 1,675 |
| 2010 | 31,230 | — | — | 4,703 | 2.63 | 40,614 | — | 40,614 | 1,156 | 317 | 1,260 | 47,615 | 192,457 | 57,211 | 1,411 |
| 2009 | 23,280 | — | — | 1,346 | -0.77 | -45,951 | — | -45,951 | 1,732 | 50 | 1,265 | 31,991 | 193,374 | 46,688 | 1,185 |
| 2008 | 22,140 | — | — | 1,707 | 1.39 | 73,417 | — | 73,417 | 1,227 | 1,117 | 1,838 | 78,654 | — | 51,536 | 1,073 |
| 2007 | 26,478 | — | — | 3,209 | 2.90 | -22,249 | — | -22,249 | 1,219 | 438 | 1,927 | 25,598 | — | 32,897 | 1,025 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.