MRVL
Marvell Technology · Information Technology · Semiconductors
$229.29
52w 61.44 – 329.88
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$200.6B
P/E
77.7
P/FCF
148.5
FCF yield
0.7%
ROE
18.7%
Shldr yield
1.1%
div 0.1% + bb 1.0%
What today's price assumes
At $200.6B, the market is pricing in 35.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 30.8% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $24 · $55 · $79 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 40.6× across 7 years, MRVL would trade near $81/share (25th–75th percentile: $78–$92); it trades at 114.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+11.4%
Rev 5y
+22.5%
Rev 10y
+20.3%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+4.6%
FCF 5y
+14.5%
FCF 10y
+30.8%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2020–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | $2.4B | +27.6% | $34.5M | −80.6% | 0.04 | $638.8M |
| Q4'26 * | $2.2B | +22.1% | $396.1M | +97.9% | 0.45 | $373.7M |
| Q3'26 | $2.1B | +36.8% | $1.9B | — | 2.20 | $582.3M |
| Q2'26 | $2.0B | +57.6% | $194.8M | — | 0.22 | $461.6M |
| Q1'26 | $1.9B | +63.3% | $177.9M | — | 0.20 | $332.9M |
| Q4'25 * | $1.8B | +27.4% | $200.2M | — | 0.23 | $514.0M |
| Q3'25 | $1.5B | +6.9% | −$676.3M | — | -0.78 | $536.3M |
| Q2'25 | $1.3B | −5.1% | −$193.3M | — | -0.22 | $306.4M |
| Q1'25 | $1.2B | −12.2% | −$215.6M | — | -0.25 | $324.5M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.4B | +0.6% | −$392.7M | — | -0.45 | $546.6M |
| Q3'24 | $1.4B | −7.7% | −$164.3M | −1335.3% | -0.19 | $503.0M |
| Q2'24 | $1.3B | −11.6% | −$207.5M | −4925.6% | -0.24 | $112.5M |
| Q1'24 | $1.3B | −8.7% | −$168.9M | — | -0.20 | $208.4M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11.4% | +22.5% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +10.7% | +16.5% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +8.9% | +14.5% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +4.6% | +4.6% | — | — |
| Equity | −2.9% | +11.1% | — | — |
| LT debt | +0.5% | +31.9% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +0.7% | +5.4% | — | — |
| Stock price | +58.4% | +30.7% | +34.9% | +22.3% |
$100, 3 years ago
$397vs $176 in SPY
58.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$382vs $181 in SPY
30.7% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,990vs $412 in SPY
34.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,049vs $813 in SPY
22.3% vs 15.0%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
9.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
0.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
11.85
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.8y
SBC / FCF
42.3%
Owner earnings
$805.6M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.4%
Share count 5y
+4.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
11.4%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.12
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 100.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 13.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 13.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
15 of 26 checks pass · 58%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/6
- pass
Revenue growth
22.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
14.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
5 of 6 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
7 of 7 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
2 of 7 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
16.5% vs 22.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/7
- pass
Net margin
32.6% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
16.1% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
51.0% vs 50.5% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
18.7% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
9.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
17.0% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $1.8B vs NI $2.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
66% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.28 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$14.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
14% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
4.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
42% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
161% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
6 of 7 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
0.7% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
77.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
35.6% vs 30.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8,195 | 4,181 | 1,323 | 2,670 | 3.07 | 1,751 | 354 | 1,396 | 205 | 2,040 | 591 | 2,639 | 3,971 | 14,308 | 870 |
| 2025 | 5,767 | 2,382 | -720 | -885 | -1.02 | 1,681 | 285 | 1,397 | 208 | 725 | 597 | 948 | 3,934 | 13,427 | 866 |
| 2024 | 5,508 | 2,294 | -568 | -933 | -1.08 | 1,371 | 336 | 1,034 | 207 | 150 | 610 | 951 | 4,059 | 14,831 | 861 |
| 2023 | 5,920 | 2,988 | 238 | -164 | -0.19 | 1,289 | 206 | 1,083 | 204 | 115 | 552 | 911 | 3,908 | 15,637 | 851 |
| 2022 | 4,462 | 2,064 | -348 | -421 | -0.53 | 819 | 169 | 650 | 191 | 0 | 461 | 614 | 4,485 | 15,702 | 797 |
| 2021 | 2,969 | 1,488 | -258 | -277 | -0.41 | 817 | 107 | 711 | 161 | 25 | 242 | 748 | 993 | 8,436 | 669 |
| 2020 | 2,699 | 1,357 | -243 | 1,584 | 2.34 | 360 | 82 | 278 | 160 | 364 | 242 | 648 | — | 8,679 | 676 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.