MRSH
Marsh McLennan · Financials · Insurance Brokers
$194.67
52w 156.60 – 211.28
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$92.9B
P/E
21.4
P/FCF
17.8
FCF yield
5.6%
ROE
27.2%
Shldr yield
4.2%
div 1.9% + bb 2.3%
What today's price assumes
At $92.9B, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 12.3% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $160 · $295 · $368 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 20.4× across 10 years, MRSH would trade near $226/share (25th–75th percentile: $185–$242); it trades at 17.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+9.2%
Rev 5y
+9.4%
Rev 10y
+8.3%
EPS 5y
+16.4%
EPS 10y
+10.7%
FCF 5y
+10.5%
FCF 10y
+12.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $7.4B | +6.2% | $1.3B | +4.5% | 2.63 | $1.5B |
| Q1'26 | $7.6B | +7.6% | $1.1B | −17.0% | 2.36 | −$688.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $6.6B | +8.7% | $821.0M | +4.2% | 1.68 | $2.2B |
| Q3'25 | $6.4B | +11.5% | $747.0M | 0.0% | 1.51 | $2.1B |
| Q2'25 | $7.0B | +12.1% | $1.2B | +7.6% | 2.45 | $1.7B |
| Q1'25 | $7.1B | +9.1% | $1.4B | −1.4% | 2.79 | −$622.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $6.1B | +9.2% | $788.0M | +4.2% | 1.58 | $2.0B |
| Q3'24 | $5.7B | +5.9% | $747.0M | +2.3% | 1.51 | $1.9B |
| Q2'24 | $6.2B | +5.9% | $1.1B | +8.7% | 2.27 | $1.2B |
| Q1'24 | $6.5B | +9.3% | $1.4B | +13.4% | 2.82 | −$781.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $5.6B | +10.6% | $756.0M | +62.2% | 1.52 | $1.8B |
| Q3'23 | $5.4B | +12.8% | $730.0M | +33.7% | 1.47 | $1.8B |
| Q2'23 | $5.9B | +9.2% | $1.0B | +7.0% | 2.07 | $1.5B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +9.2% | +9.4% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +15.2% | +9.4% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +18.6% | +10.5% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +11.8% | +16.4% | — | — |
| Equity | +12.5% | +10.6% | — | — |
| LT debt | +17.7% | +11.2% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.7% | −0.7% | — | — |
| Stock price | +1.6% | +6.0% | +13.0% | +15.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$105vs $176 in SPY
1.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$134vs $181 in SPY
6.0% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$341vs $412 in SPY
13.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$874vs $813 in SPY
15.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$3.51
$40.3B created / $11.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
15.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.68
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.7y
SBC / FCF
7.9%
Owner earnings
$4.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.2%
Share count 5y
−0.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
3.1%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$-0.00
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 62.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 14.7% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
23 of 26 checks pass · 88%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
9.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
16.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
10.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
9.4% vs 9.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
15.4% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
23.1% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
27.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
15.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
18.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.3B vs NI $4.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
15% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.20 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$15.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
15% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
74% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.6% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
21.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
6.1% vs 12.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26,981 | — | 6,223 | 4,160 | 8.43 | 5,292 | 291 | 5,001 | 1,699 | 2,012 | 394 | 2,687 | 18,320 | 15,315 | 494 |
| 2024 | 24,458 | — | 5,817 | 4,060 | 8.18 | 4,302 | 316 | 3,986 | 1,513 | 900 | 368 | 2,398 | 19,428 | 13,535 | 496 |
| 2023 | 22,736 | — | 5,282 | 3,756 | 7.53 | 4,258 | 416 | 3,842 | 1,298 | 1,150 | 363 | 3,358 | 11,844 | 12,370 | 499 |
| 2022 | 20,720 | — | 4,280 | 3,050 | 6.04 | 3,465 | 470 | 2,995 | 1,138 | 1,950 | 367 | 1,442 | 11,227 | 10,749 | 505 |
| 2021 | 19,820 | — | 4,312 | 3,143 | 6.13 | 3,516 | 406 | 3,110 | 1,026 | 1,159 | 348 | 1,752 | 10,933 | 11,222 | 513 |
| 2020 | 17,224 | — | 3,066 | 2,016 | 3.94 | 3,382 | 348 | 3,034 | 943 | 0 | 290 | 2,089 | 10,796 | 9,260 | 512 |
| 2019 | 16,652 | — | 2,677 | 1,742 | 3.41 | 2,361 | 421 | 1,940 | 890 | 485 | 252 | 1,155 | 10,741 | 7,943 | 511 |
| 2018 | 14,950 | — | 2,761 | 1,650 | 3.23 | 2,428 | 314 | 2,114 | 807 | 675 | 193 | 1,066 | 5,510 | 7,584 | 511 |
| 2017 | 14,024 | — | 2,655 | 1,492 | 2.87 | 1,893 | 302 | 1,591 | 740 | 900 | 149 | 1,205 | 5,225 | 7,442 | 519 |
| 2016 | 13,211 | — | 2,431 | 1,768 | 3.38 | 2,007 | 253 | 1,754 | 682 | 800 | 109 | 1,026 | 4,495 | 6,272 | 524 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.