MRNA
Moderna · Health Care · Biotechnology
$138.89
52w 22.28 – 176.66
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$55.4B
P/E
—
P/FCF
—
FCF yield
-8.2%
ROE
-32.6%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−53.4%
Rev 5y
+19.3%
Rev 10y
+37.8%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $145.0M | +2.1% | −$782.0M | — | -1.97 | −$526.0M |
| Q1'26 | $389.0M | +260.2% | −$1.3B | — | -3.40 | −$630.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $678.0M | −29.8% | −$826.0M | — | -2.10 | $930.0M |
| Q3'25 | $1.0B | −45.4% | −$200.0M | −1638.5% | -0.51 | −$847.0M |
| Q2'25 | $142.0M | −41.1% | −$825.0M | — | -2.13 | −$919.0M |
| Q1'25 | $108.0M | −35.3% | −$971.0M | — | -2.52 | −$1.0B |
| Q4'24 * | $966.0M | −65.6% | −$1.1B | −616.1% | -2.91 | $825.0M |
| Q3'24 | $1.9B | +1.7% | $13.0M | — | 0.03 | −$1.6B |
| Q2'24 | $241.0M | −29.9% | −$1.3B | — | -3.33 | −$1.3B |
| Q1'24 | $167.0M | −91.0% | −$1.2B | −1587.3% | -3.07 | −$989.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $2.8B | −44.7% | $217.0M | −85.2% | 0.63 | $622.0M |
| Q3'23 | $1.8B | −45.6% | −$3.6B | −448.0% | -9.53 | −$1.6B |
| Q2'23 | $344.0M | −92.8% | −$1.4B | −162.8% | -3.62 | −$915.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −53.4% | +19.3% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +105.2% | +105.2% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +126.9% | +126.9% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | — |
| Equity | −23.2% | +27.6% | — | — |
| LT debt | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −2.2% | +0.4% | — | — |
| Stock price | +7.1% | −18.1% | — | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$123vs $176 in SPY
7.1% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$37vs $181 in SPY
-18.1% vs 12.6%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$-5.16
−$48.8B created / $9.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
-20.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
—
MC vs 10× OCF
—
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
−$2.5B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
-10.1%
Share count 5y
+2.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 63.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -58.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -36.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
6 of 18 checks pass · 33%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
2/5
- pass
Revenue growth
19.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
4 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
2 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
105.2% vs 19.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
1/6
- fail
Net margin
-145.2% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
-158.1% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-32.6% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
-20.3% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
-106.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF −$1.9B vs NI −$2.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/3
- na
Debt payable from cash flow
— · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
440% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.07 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$8.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
0/2
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
2.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- na
Distributions funded by FCF
— · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
4 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/2
- fail
FCF yield
-8.2% · ≥ 3%
- na
Earnings multiple
— · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Negative free cash flow
Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.
Net loss
The company reported a net loss in the latest fiscal year.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1,944 | — | -3,074 | -2,822 | -7.26 | -1,873 | 192 | -2,065 | — | 2 | 483 | 2,595 | 590 | 8,650 | 389 |
| 2024 | 3,236 | — | -3,945 | -3,561 | -9.28 | -3,004 | 1,051 | -4,055 | — | 0 | 429 | 1,927 | 0 | 10,901 | 384 |
| 2023 | 6,848 | — | -4,239 | -4,714 | -12.33 | -3,118 | 707 | -3,825 | — | 1,153 | 305 | 2,907 | — | 13,854 | 382 |
| 2022 | 19,263 | — | 9,420 | 8,362 | 20.12 | 4,981 | 400 | 4,581 | — | 3,329 | 226 | 3,205 | — | 19,123 | 416 |
| 2021 | 18,471 | — | 13,296 | 12,202 | 28.29 | 13,620 | 284 | 13,336 | — | 857 | 142 | 6,848 | — | 14,145 | 431 |
| 2020 | 803 | — | -763 | -747 | -1.96 | 2,027 | 68 | 1,959 | — | 0 | 93 | 2,624 | — | 2,561 | 381 |
| 2019 | 60 | — | -546 | -514 | -1.55 | -459 | 32 | -491 | — | 0 | 81 | 236 | — | 1,175 | 331 |
| 2018 | 135 | — | -413 | -385 | -4.95 | -331 | 106 | -437 | — | — | 73 | 658 | — | 1,530 | — |
| 2017 | 206 | — | -269 | -256 | -4.18 | -331 | 58 | -390 | — | — | 40 | 135 | — | -551 | — |
| 2016 | 108 | — | -224 | -216 | -3.79 | 67 | 33 | 34 | — | — | 39 | 50 | — | -335 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.