MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems · Information Technology · Semiconductors
$1,285.03
52w 800.97 – 1,714.09
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$63.2B
P/E
103.6
P/FCF
96.7
FCF yield
1.0%
ROE
17.6%
Shldr yield
0.5%
div 0.4% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $63.2B, the market is pricing in 29.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 28.6% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $207 · $463 · $668 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 34.5× across 17 years, MPWR would trade near $589/share (25th–75th percentile: $392–$771); it trades at 75.3× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+15.9%
Rev 5y
+27.0%
Rev 10y
+23.7%
EPS 5y
+29.7%
EPS 10y
+31.1%
FCF 5y
+25.7%
FCF 10y
+28.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $980.6M | +47.6% | $257.3M | +90.6% | 5.22 | $227.9M |
| Q1'26 | $804.2M | +26.1% | $193.2M | +43.1% | 3.92 | $250.3M |
| Q4'25 * | $751.2M | +20.8% | $171.7M | −86.3% | 3.50 | $104.9M |
| Q3'25 | $737.2M | +18.9% | $179.8M | +24.5% | 3.74 | $239.3M |
| Q2'25 | $664.6M | +31.0% | $135.0M | +34.5% | 2.81 | $237.6M |
| Q1'25 | $637.6M | +39.2% | $135.1M | +45.9% | 2.81 | $256.4M |
| Q4'24 * | $621.7M | +36.9% | $1.3B | +1194.8% | 25.71 | $167.7M |
| Q3'24 | $620.1M | +30.6% | $144.4M | +19.2% | 2.95 | $231.7M |
| Q2'24 | $507.4M | +15.0% | $100.4M | +0.9% | 2.05 | $141.0M |
| Q1'24 | $457.9M | +1.5% | $92.5M | −15.7% | 1.89 | $248.1M |
| Q4'23 * | $454.0M | −1.3% | $96.9M | −18.6% | 1.98 | $153.3M |
| Q3'23 | $474.9M | −4.1% | $121.2M | −2.6% | 2.48 | $175.9M |
| Q2'23 | $441.1M | −4.3% | $99.5M | −13.2% | 2.04 | $90.2M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +15.9% | +27.0% | +23.7% | +18.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +50.3% | +25.6% | +28.2% | +20.9% |
| Free cash flow | +52.5% | +25.7% | +28.6% | +24.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | +12.4% | +29.7% | +31.1% | +90.1% |
| Equity | +28.4% | +29.6% | +25.4% | +19.4% |
| LT debt | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.0% | +0.5% | +1.7% | +2.1% |
| Stock price | +36.1% | +21.9% | +33.6% | +37.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$252vs $176 in SPY
36.1% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$269vs $181 in SPY
21.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,818vs $412 in SPY
33.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$11,926vs $813 in SPY
37.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$16.11
$38.1B created / $2.4B retained
Last 10 years
$19.75
$51.8B created / $2.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
23.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
7.68
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
34.1%
Owner earnings
$438.7M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.7%
Share count 5y
+2.0%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
22.5%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.18
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 63.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 31.7% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 20.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 26 checks pass · 69%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
27.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
29.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
25.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
25.6% vs 27.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
22.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
26.1% · ≥ 10%
- fail
Gross margin stable or rising
55.2% vs 58.4% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
17.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
23.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
23.9% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $838.2M vs NI $621.5M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
— · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$3.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
2.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
34% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
44% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
3 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.0% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
103.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
29.4% vs 28.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2,790 | 1,540 | 729 | 621 | 12.86 | 838 | 172 | 666 | 285 | 7 | 227 | 1,099 | — | 3,531 | 48 |
| 2024 | 2,207 | 1,221 | 539 | 1,592 | 32.60 | 788 | 146 | 642 | 241 | 636 | 206 | 692 | — | 2,951 | 49 |
| 2023 | 1,821 | 1,021 | 482 | 427 | 8.76 | 638 | 58 | 581 | 186 | 4 | 150 | 528 | — | 2,050 | 49 |
| 2022 | 1,794 | 1,049 | 527 | 438 | 9.05 | 247 | 59 | 188 | 138 | 0 | 161 | 289 | — | 1,669 | 48 |
| 2021 | 1,208 | 685 | 262 | 242 | 5.05 | 320 | 94 | 226 | 109 | 0 | 123 | 189 | — | 1,244 | 48 |
| 2020 | 844 | 466 | 159 | 164 | 3.50 | 268 | 56 | 212 | 89 | — | 86 | 335 | — | 967 | 47 |
| 2019 | 628 | 346 | 103 | 109 | 2.38 | 216 | 96 | 120 | 67 | — | 79 | 173 | — | 773 | 46 |
| 2018 | 582 | 323 | 113 | 105 | 2.36 | 141 | 23 | 119 | 47 | — | 61 | 173 | — | 640 | 45 |
| 2017 | 471 | 258 | 77 | 65 | 1.50 | 134 | 66 | 68 | 34 | — | 53 | 83 | — | 522 | 44 |
| 2016 | 389 | 211 | 54 | 53 | 1.26 | 108 | 37 | 71 | — | — | 45 | 113 | — | 431 | 42 |
| 2015 | 333 | 180 | 41 | 35 | 0.86 | 70 | 16 | 54 | — | 32 | 42 | 91 | — | 369 | 41 |
| 2014 | 283 | 153 | 35 | 35 | 0.89 | 74 | 10 | 65 | — | 41 | 33 | 126 | — | 346 | 40 |
| 2013 | 238 | 128 | 24 | 23 | 0.59 | 61 | 16 | 45 | — | 21 | 21 | 101 | — | 323 | 39 |
| 2012 | 214 | 113 | 17 | 16 | 0.43 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 36 | — | 19 | 75 | — | 258 | 36 |
| 2011 | 197 | 102 | 13 | 13 | 0.38 | 44 | 21 | 23 | — | 38 | 13 | 96 | — | 243 | 35 |
| 2010 | 219 | 121 | 30 | 30 | 0.00 | 48 | 23 | 26 | — | 32 | 17 | 48 | — | 247 | 35 |
| 2009 | 165 | 98 | 20 | 20 | 0.56 | 32 | 10 | 22 | — | — | 15 | 47 | — | 213 | 35 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.