MPC
Marathon Petroleum · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$362.52
52w 161.93 – 367.60
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$101.8B
P/E
25.4
P/FCF
21.6
FCF yield
4.6%
ROE
23.4%
Shldr yield
4.5%
div 1.1% + bb 3.4%
What today's price assumes
At $101.8B, the market is pricing in 8.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 8.7% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $259 · $364 · $454 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 4.6× across 15 years, MPC would trade near $134/share (25th–75th percentile: $114–$171); it trades at 12.3× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−9.2%
Rev 5y
+13.7%
Rev 10y
+6.3%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+9.7%
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
+8.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $52.0B | +53.8% | $5.1B | +322.5% | 17.73 | $10.3B |
| Q1'26 | $34.2B | +8.5% | $511.0M | — | 1.73 | $1.1B |
| Q4'25 * | $32.6B | −1.7% | $1.5B | +313.7% | 4.99 | $3.1B |
| Q3'25 | $34.8B | −0.8% | $1.4B | +120.3% | 4.51 | $2.6B |
| Q2'25 | $33.8B | −10.9% | $1.2B | −19.7% | 3.96 | $2.6B |
| Q1'25 | $31.5B | −3.6% | −$74.0M | −107.9% | -0.24 | −$64.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $33.1B | −8.6% | $371.0M | −74.4% | 1.30 | $2.2B |
| Q3'24 | $35.1B | −14.2% | $622.0M | −81.0% | 1.87 | $1.7B |
| Q2'24 | $37.9B | +4.3% | $1.5B | −31.9% | 4.33 | $3.2B |
| Q1'24 | $32.7B | −6.2% | $937.0M | −65.6% | 2.58 | $1.5B |
| Q4'23 * | $36.3B | −8.9% | $1.5B | −56.3% | 3.94 | $1.1B |
| Q3'23 | $40.9B | −10.6% | $3.3B | −26.7% | 8.28 | $5.0B |
| Q2'23 | $36.3B | −32.4% | $2.2B | −62.1% | 5.32 | $4.0B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −9.2% | +13.7% | +6.3% | +5.1% |
| Operating cash flow | −20.4% | +27.8% | +7.3% | +9.2% |
| Free cash flow | −30.1% | +0.5% | +8.7% | +11.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | −22.2% | +22.2% | +9.7% | +19.3% |
| Equity | −14.5% | −4.8% | +2.7% | +5.1% |
| LT debt | +6.0% | +1.2% | +9.9% | +37.1% |
| Diluted shares | −16.0% | −14.0% | −5.6% | −5.0% |
| Stock price | +39.0% | +46.8% | +27.6% | +25.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$269vs $176 in SPY
39.0% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$682vs $181 in SPY
46.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,146vs $412 in SPY
27.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,975vs $813 in SPY
25.4% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$0.83
$29.1B created / $35.1B retained
Last 10 years
$1.24
$37.1B created / $30.0B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
17.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
6.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.25
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
6.4y
SBC / FCF
3.4%
Owner earnings
$4.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.5%
Share count 5y
−4.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
13 of 24 checks pass · 54%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/5
- pass
Revenue growth
13.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
27.8% vs 13.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/6
- fail
Net margin
3.0% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
6.2% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
23.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
17.3% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
3.6% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $8.3B vs NI $4.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
0/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
6.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
12% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
1.76 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$17.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
18% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-4.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
97% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.6% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
25.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
8.7% vs 8.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 132,699 | — | 8,291 | 4,047 | 13.22 | 8,253 | 3,486 | 4,767 | 1,140 | 3,488 | 160 | 3,672 | 30,505 | 17,314 | 306 |
| 2024 | 138,864 | — | 6,796 | 3,445 | 10.08 | 8,665 | 2,533 | 6,132 | 1,154 | 9,189 | 137 | 3,210 | 24,432 | 17,745 | 341 |
| 2023 | 148,379 | — | 14,514 | 9,681 | 23.63 | 14,117 | 1,890 | 12,227 | 1,261 | 11,572 | 211 | 5,443 | 25,329 | 24,404 | 409 |
| 2022 | 177,453 | — | 21,469 | 14,516 | 28.12 | 16,361 | 2,420 | 13,941 | 1,279 | 11,922 | 153 | 8,625 | 25,634 | 27,715 | 516 |
| 2021 | 119,983 | — | 4,300 | 9,738 | 15.24 | 4,360 | 1,464 | 2,896 | 1,484 | 4,654 | 88 | 5,291 | 24,968 | 26,206 | 638 |
| 2020 | 69,779 | — | -12,247 | -9,826 | -15.13 | 2,419 | 2,787 | -368 | 1,510 | 0 | 100 | 415 | 28,730 | 22,199 | 649 |
| 2019 | 111,148 | — | 4,462 | 2,637 | 3.97 | 9,441 | 4,810 | 4,631 | 1,398 | 1,950 | 153 | 1,393 | 28,020 | 33,694 | 664 |
| 2018 | 86,086 | — | 4,690 | 2,780 | 5.28 | 6,158 | 3,179 | 2,979 | 954 | 3,287 | 127 | 1,687 | 26,980 | 35,175 | 526 |
| 2017 | 74,733 | — | 4,018 | 3,432 | 6.70 | 6,612 | 2,732 | 3,880 | 773 | 2,372 | 51 | 3,011 | 12,322 | 14,033 | 512 |
| 2016 | 63,277 | — | 2,386 | 1,174 | 2.21 | 4,017 | 2,892 | 1,125 | 719 | 197 | 45 | 887 | 10,544 | 13,557 | 530 |
| 2015 | 72,051 | — | 4,692 | 2,852 | 5.26 | 4,073 | 1,998 | 2,075 | 613 | 965 | 42 | 1,127 | 11,896 | 13,237 | 542 |
| 2014 | 97,817 | — | 4,051 | 2,524 | 4.39 | 3,110 | 1,480 | 1,630 | 524 | 2,131 | 40 | 1,494 | 6,575 | 10,751 | 574 |
| 2013 | 100,160 | — | 3,425 | 2,112 | 3.32 | 3,405 | 1,206 | 2,199 | 484 | 2,793 | 42 | 2,292 | 3,373 | 10,920 | 634 |
| 2012 | 82,243 | — | 5,347 | 3,389 | 5.33 | 4,492 | 1,369 | 3,123 | 407 | 1,350 | 35 | 4,860 | 3,342 | 11,694 | 634 |
| 2011 | 78,638 | — | 3,745 | 2,389 | 3.60 | 3,309 | 1,185 | 2,124 | 160 | 0 | 28 | 3,079 | 3,292 | 9,505 | 662 |
| 2010 | 62,487 | — | 1,011 | 623 | 0.94 | 2,217 | 1,217 | 1,000 | — | — | 16 | 118 | 268 | 8,244 | 664 |
| 2009 | 45,530 | — | 836 | 449 | 0.67 | 2,455 | 2,891 | -436 | — | — | 18 | 128 | — | 9,172 | 664 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.