MO
Altria · Consumer Staples · Tobacco
$68.47
52w 54.70 – 77.06
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$114.3B
P/E
15.9
P/FCF
12.2
FCF yield
8.2%
ROE
-198.4%
Shldr yield
7.2%
div 6.3% + bb 0.9%
What today's price assumes
At $114.3B, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.9% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $83 · $89 · $110 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.8× across 15 years, MO would trade near $38/share (25th–75th percentile: $35–$48); it trades at 12.3× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−2.5%
Rev 5y
−2.3%
Rev 10y
−0.9%
EPS 5y
+11.4%
EPS 10y
+4.4%
FCF 5y
+2.2%
FCF 10y
+4.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.1B | +0.1% | $2.3B | −3.4% | 1.37 | $719.0M |
| Q1'26 | $5.4B | +3.2% | $2.2B | +102.7% | 1.30 | $2.3B |
| Q4'25 * | $5.8B | −2.1% | $1.1B | −63.2% | 0.67 | $3.3B |
| Q3'25 | $6.1B | −3.0% | $2.4B | +3.6% | 1.41 | $3.1B |
| Q2'25 | $6.1B | −1.7% | $2.4B | −37.5% | 1.41 | $205.0M |
| Q1'25 | $5.3B | −5.7% | $1.1B | −49.4% | 0.63 | $2.7B |
| Q4'24 * | $6.0B | −0.0% | $3.0B | +47.5% | 1.78 | $3.3B |
| Q3'24 | $6.3B | −0.4% | $2.3B | +5.9% | 1.34 | $2.6B |
| Q2'24 | $6.2B | −4.6% | $3.8B | +79.6% | 2.21 | −$75.0M |
| Q1'24 | $5.6B | −2.5% | $2.1B | +19.1% | 1.21 | $2.9B |
| Q4'23 * | $6.0B | −2.2% | $2.1B | −23.4% | 1.16 | $3.2B |
| Q3'23 | $6.3B | −4.1% | $2.2B | +867.0% | 1.22 | $3.0B |
| Q2'23 | $6.5B | −0.5% | $2.1B | +137.6% | 1.19 | $124.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −2.5% | −2.3% | −0.9% | −0.3% |
| Operating cash flow | +4.0% | +2.1% | +4.7% | +8.4% |
| Free cash flow | +4.1% | +2.2% | +4.9% | +8.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | +8.9% | +11.4% | +4.4% | +5.4% |
| Equity | −43.1% | −0.3% | −5.9% | — |
| LT debt | −1.3% | −2.9% | +6.5% | +4.7% |
| Diluted shares | −2.3% | −2.0% | −1.4% | −1.4% |
| Stock price | +24.8% | +14.9% | +7.4% | +13.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$195vs $176 in SPY
24.8% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$201vs $181 in SPY
14.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$205vs $412 in SPY
7.4% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$632vs $813 in SPY
13.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$53.60
$51.0B created / $951.0M retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
45.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
7.2%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.19
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.7y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$9.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
8.2%
Share count 5y
−1.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
7.3%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
20 of 26 checks pass · 77%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- fail
Revenue growth
-2.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
11.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
2.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
1 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
2.1% vs -2.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
29.8% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
42.5% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
62.5% vs 56.8% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-198.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
45.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
39.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $9.3B vs NI $6.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
19% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
-6.89 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
−$3.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
12% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/3
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
88% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
8.2% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
15.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
0.9% vs 4.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
7.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23,279 | 14,542 | 9,899 | 6,947 | 4.12 | 9,290 | 216 | 9,074 | 6,960 | 1,000 | — | 4,474 | 24,140 | -3,502 | 1,683 |
| 2024 | 24,018 | 14,367 | 11,241 | 11,264 | 6.54 | 8,753 | 142 | 8,611 | 6,845 | 3,400 | — | 3,127 | 23,399 | -2,238 | 1,718 |
| 2023 | 24,483 | 14,284 | 11,547 | 8,130 | 4.57 | 9,287 | 196 | 9,091 | 6,779 | 1,000 | — | 3,686 | 25,112 | -3,540 | 1,777 |
| 2022 | 25,096 | 14,246 | 11,919 | 5,764 | 3.19 | 8,256 | 205 | 8,051 | 6,599 | 1,825 | — | 4,030 | 25,124 | -3,973 | 1,804 |
| 2021 | 26,013 | 13,992 | 11,560 | 2,475 | 1.34 | 8,405 | 169 | 8,236 | 6,446 | 1,675 | — | 4,544 | 26,939 | -1,606 | 1,845 |
| 2020 | 26,153 | 13,023 | 10,873 | 4,467 | 2.40 | 8,385 | 231 | 8,154 | 6,290 | 0 | — | 4,945 | 27,971 | 2,839 | 1,859 |
| 2019 | 25,110 | 12,711 | 10,326 | -1,293 | -0.70 | 7,837 | 246 | 7,591 | 6,069 | 845 | — | 2,117 | 27,042 | 6,222 | 1,869 |
| 2018 | 25,364 | 12,254 | 9,115 | 6,963 | 3.68 | 8,391 | 238 | 8,153 | 5,415 | 1,673 | — | 1,333 | 11,898 | 14,787 | 1,888 |
| 2017 | 25,576 | 11,963 | 9,593 | 10,222 | 5.31 | 4,901 | 199 | 4,702 | 4,807 | 2,917 | — | 1,253 | 13,030 | 15,377 | 1,921 |
| 2016 | 25,744 | 11,572 | 8,761 | 14,239 | 7.28 | 3,826 | 189 | 3,637 | 4,512 | 1,030 | — | 4,569 | 13,881 | 12,770 | 1,952 |
| 2015 | 25,434 | 11,114 | 8,361 | 5,241 | 2.67 | 5,843 | 229 | 5,614 | 4,179 | 554 | — | 2,369 | 12,843 | 2,880 | — |
| 2014 | 24,522 | 10,160 | 7,620 | 5,070 | 2.56 | 4,663 | 163 | 4,500 | 3,892 | 939 | — | 3,321 | 13,693 | 3,014 | — |
| 2013 | 24,466 | 10,457 | 8,084 | 4,535 | 2.26 | 4,375 | 131 | 4,244 | 3,612 | 634 | — | 3,175 | 13,992 | 4,119 | — |
| 2012 | 24,618 | 9,563 | 7,253 | 4,180 | 2.06 | 3,903 | 124 | 3,779 | 3,400 | 1,082 | — | 2,900 | 12,419 | 3,168 | 2,024 |
| 2011 | 23,800 | 8,939 | 6,068 | 3,390 | 1.64 | 3,613 | 105 | 3,508 | 3,222 | 1,327 | — | 3,270 | 13,089 | 3,680 | 2,064 |
| 2010 | 24,363 | 9,188 | 6,228 | 3,905 | 1.87 | 2,767 | 168 | 2,599 | 2,958 | 0 | — | 2,314 | 12,194 | 5,192 | 2,079 |
| 2009 | 23,556 | 8,834 | 5,462 | 3,206 | 1.54 | 3,443 | 273 | 3,170 | 2,693 | 0 | — | 1,871 | 11,185 | 4,069 | 2,071 |
| 2008 | 19,356 | 7,687 | 4,882 | 4,930 | 2.36 | 4,881 | 241 | 4,640 | 4,428 | 1,166 | — | 7,916 | 6,839 | 2,828 | 2,084 |
| 2007 | 18,664 | 7,385 | 4,373 | 9,786 | 4.62 | 10,316 | 386 | 9,930 | 6,652 | 0 | — | 4,842 | — | 19,320 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.