MMM
3M · Industrials · Industrial Conglomerates
$179.01
52w 139.34 – 184.90
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$92.3B
P/E
28.4
P/FCF
66.1
FCF yield
1.5%
ROE
69.1%
Shldr yield
5.2%
div 1.7% + bb 3.5%
What today's price assumes
At $92.3B, the market is pricing in 24.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -11.9% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $14 · $14 · $17 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 8.7× across 19 years, MMM would trade near $39/share (25th–75th percentile: $29–$43); it trades at 40.0× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−1.6%
Rev 5y
−5.0%
Rev 10y
−1.9%
EPS 5y
−8.5%
EPS 10y
−2.3%
FCF 5y
−26.7%
FCF 10y
−11.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.5B | +2.5% | $933.0M | +29.0% | 1.78 | $986.0M |
| Q1'26 | $6.0B | +1.3% | $653.0M | −41.5% | 1.23 | $574.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $6.1B | +2.0% | $577.0M | −20.7% | 1.07 | $1.6B |
| Q3'25 | $6.5B | +3.5% | $834.0M | −39.2% | 1.55 | $1.8B |
| Q2'25 | $6.3B | +1.4% | $723.0M | −36.9% | 1.34 | −$954.0M |
| Q1'25 | $6.0B | −1.0% | $1.1B | +20.3% | 2.04 | −$79.0M |
| Q4'24 | $6.0B | +0.1% | $728.0M | −23.0% | 1.33 | $1.8B |
| Q3'24 | $6.3B | +0.4% | $1.4B | — | 2.48 | −$1.8B |
| Q2'24 | $6.3B | −0.4% | $1.1B | — | 2.07 | $1.0B |
| Q1'24 | $6.0B | −0.6% | $928.0M | −4.9% | 1.67 | $767.0M |
| Q4'23 | $6.0B | +54463.6% | $945.0M | +74.7% | 1.70 | $2.0B |
| Q3'23 | $6.3B | −27.3% | −$2.1B | −153.8% | -3.74 | $1.9B |
| Q2'23 | $6.3B | −27.8% | −$6.8B | −8870.5% | -12.35 | $1.5B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −1.6% | −5.0% | −1.9% | −0.4% |
| Operating cash flow | −25.6% | −22.2% | −9.7% | −5.2% |
| Free cash flow | −28.6% | −26.7% | −11.9% | −6.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | −16.2% | −8.5% | −2.3% | +0.4% |
| Equity | −31.6% | −18.2% | −8.5% | −7.7% |
| LT debt | −7.9% | −9.5% | +2.2% | +6.6% |
| Diluted shares | −1.6% | −1.4% | −1.6% | −1.9% |
| Stock price | +29.5% | +5.5% | +5.1% | +9.7% |
$100, 3 years ago
$217vs $176 in SPY
29.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$130vs $181 in SPY
5.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$164vs $412 in SPY
5.1% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$403vs $813 in SPY
9.7% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 10 years
$2.98
$24.8B created / $8.3B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
14.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.00
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
7.8y
SBC / FCF
16.1%
Owner earnings
$1.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.3%
Share count 5y
−1.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
28.5%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
11 of 26 checks pass · 42%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
2/7
- fail
Revenue growth
-5.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-8.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-26.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-22.2% vs -5.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
13.0% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
18.6% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
69.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
14.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
5.6% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.3B vs NI $3.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
7.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
48% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
2.32 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$4.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
10% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
16% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
345% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.5% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
28.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
24.1% vs -11.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
5.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24,948 | — | 4,629 | 3,250 | 6.00 | 2,306 | 910 | 1,396 | 1,562 | 3,251 | 225 | 5,235 | 10,932 | 4,702 | 541 |
| 2024 | 24,575 | — | 4,822 | 4,173 | 7.55 | 1,819 | 1,181 | 638 | 1,982 | 1,801 | 289 | 5,600 | 11,125 | 3,842 | 552 |
| 2023 | 24,610 | — | -10,689 | -6,995 | -12.63 | 6,680 | 1,615 | 5,065 | 3,311 | 33 | 274 | 5,933 | 13,088 | 4,807 | 554 |
| 2022 | 26,161 | — | 4,369 | 5,777 | 10.18 | 5,591 | 1,749 | 3,842 | 3,369 | 1,464 | 263 | 3,655 | 14,001 | 14,722 | 568 |
| 2021 | 35,355 | — | 7,369 | 5,921 | 10.12 | 7,454 | 1,603 | 5,851 | 3,420 | 2,199 | 274 | 4,564 | 16,056 | 15,046 | 585 |
| 2020 | 32,184 | — | 7,161 | 5,449 | 9.36 | 8,113 | 1,501 | 6,612 | 3,388 | 368 | 262 | 4,634 | 17,989 | 12,867 | 582 |
| 2019 | 32,136 | — | 6,174 | 4,517 | 7.72 | 7,070 | 1,699 | 5,371 | 3,316 | 1,407 | 278 | — | 17,518 | 10,063 | 585 |
| 2018 | 32,765 | — | 7,207 | 5,349 | 8.89 | 6,439 | 1,577 | 4,862 | 3,193 | 4,870 | 302 | 2,853 | 13,411 | 9,796 | 602 |
| 2017 | 31,657 | — | 7,692 | 4,858 | 7.93 | 6,240 | 1,373 | 4,867 | 2,803 | 2,068 | 324 | 3,053 | 12,096 | 11,563 | 613 |
| 2016 | 30,109 | — | 7,027 | 5,050 | 8.16 | 6,662 | 1,420 | 5,242 | 2,678 | 3,753 | 298 | 2,398 | 10,678 | 10,298 | 619 |
| 2015 | 30,274 | — | 6,946 | 4,833 | 7.58 | 6,420 | 1,461 | 4,959 | 2,561 | 5,238 | 276 | 1,798 | 8,753 | 11,429 | 637 |
| 2014 | 31,821 | — | 7,135 | 4,956 | 7.49 | 6,626 | 1,493 | 5,133 | 2,216 | 5,652 | 280 | 1,897 | 6,705 | 13,109 | 662 |
| 2013 | 30,871 | — | 6,666 | 4,659 | 6.72 | 5,817 | 1,665 | 4,152 | 1,730 | 5,212 | 240 | 2,581 | 4,326 | 17,502 | 694 |
| 2012 | 29,904 | — | 6,483 | 4,444 | 6.32 | 5,300 | 1,484 | 3,816 | 1,635 | 2,204 | 223 | 2,883 | 4,916 | 17,575 | 703 |
| 2011 | 29,611 | — | 6,178 | 4,283 | 5.96 | 5,284 | 1,379 | 3,905 | 1,555 | 2,701 | 253 | 2,219 | 4,484 | 15,420 | 719 |
| 2010 | 26,662 | — | 5,918 | 4,085 | 5.63 | 5,174 | 1,091 | 4,083 | 1,500 | 854 | 274 | 3,377 | 4,183 | 15,663 | 726 |
| 2009 | 23,123 | — | 4,814 | 3,193 | 4.52 | 4,941 | 903 | 4,038 | 1,431 | 17 | 217 | 3,040 | 5,097 | 12,764 | 707 |
| 2008 | 25,269 | — | 5,218 | 3,460 | 4.89 | 4,533 | 1,471 | 3,062 | 1,398 | 1,631 | 202 | 1,849 | 5,166 | 9,880 | 707 |
| 2007 | 24,462 | — | 6,193 | 4,096 | 5.60 | 4,246 | 1,422 | 2,824 | 1,380 | 3,239 | 228 | 1,896 | — | 12,072 | 732 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.