MMarketMath

MET

Fast growerQuality: High (85/100)

MetLife · Financials · Life & Health Insurance

$96.21

52w 67.33 – 100.93

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$61.1B

P/E

18.1

P/FCF

3.6

FCF yield

28.0%

ROE

11.9%

Shldr yield

7.2%

div 2.5% + bb 4.7%

What today's price assumes

At $61.1B, the market is pricing in -17.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 2.0% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $354 · $354 · $440 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 2.9× across 18 years, MET would trade near $79/share (25th–75th percentile: $57–$93); it trades at 3.6× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+4.9%

Rev 5y

+12.5%

Rev 10y

−27.6%

EPS 5y

−3.7%

EPS 10y

+0.2%

FCF 5y

+8.0%

FCF 10y

+2.0%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $47.2B
2008: $51.0B
2009: $40.7B
2010: $52.2B
2011: $70.2B
2012: $68.2B
2013: $68.2B
2014: $73.3B
2015: $61.3B
2016: $60.8B
2017: $62.3B
2018: $1.3B
2019: $1.3B
2020: $1.4B
2021: $2.1B
2022: $2.1B
2023: $2.2B
2024: $2.2B
2025: $2.4B
$0$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $4.3B
2008: $3.2B
2009: −$2.2B
2010: $2.7B
2011: $6.4B
2012: $1.3B
2013: $3.4B
2014: $6.3B
2015: $5.4B
2016: $850.0M
2017: $4.0B
2018: $5.1B
2019: $5.9B
2020: $5.4B
2021: $6.9B
2022: $5.3B
2023: $1.6B
2024: $4.4B
2025: $3.4B
$0$2.5B$5.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $9.9B
2008: $10.7B
2009: $3.8B
2010: $8.0B
2011: $10.3B
2012: $17.2B
2013: $16.1B
2014: $16.4B
2015: $14.1B
2016: $14.8B
2017: $12.3B
2018: $11.7B
2019: $13.8B
2020: $11.6B
2021: $12.3B
2022: $13.0B
2023: $13.7B
2024: $14.6B
2025: $17.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 744.8M
2009: 818.5M
2010: 889.6M
2011: 1.1B
2012: 1.1B
2013: 1.1B
2014: 1.1B
2015: 1.1B
2016: 1.1B
2017: 1.1B
2018: 1.0B
2019: 944.4M
2020: 913.2M
2021: 869.4M
2022: 808.9M
2023: 762.3M
2024: 711.1M
2025: 673.3M
0500.0M1.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

0%500%1000%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $2.2B
2008: $1.8B
2009: $610.0M
2010: $784.0M
2011: $787.0M
2012: $811.0M
2013: $1.1B
2014: $2.5B
2015: $3.6B
2016: $2.1B
2017: $4.6B
2018: $5.7B
2019: $3.9B
2020: $2.8B
2021: $6.0B
2022: $4.9B
2023: $4.7B
2024: $4.7B
2025: $4.4B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$10.0B$20.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $546.0M
Q3'23: $554.0M
Q4'23: $19.0B
Q1'24: $577.0M
Q2'24: $558.0M
Q3'24: $554.0M
Q4'24: $556.0M
Q1'25: $611.0M
Q2'25: $604.0M
Q3'25: $621.0M
Q4'25: $600.0M
Q1'26: $734.0M
Q2'26: $724.0M
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $402.0M
Q3'23: $489.0M
Q4'23: $607.0M
Q1'24: $867.0M
Q2'24: $946.0M
Q3'24: $1.3B
Q4'24: $1.3B
Q1'25: $945.0M
Q2'25: $729.0M
Q3'25: $896.0M
Q4'25: $809.0M
Q1'26: $1.2B
Q2'26: $736.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$724.0M+19.9%$736.0M+1.0%1.09$2.2B
Q1'26$734.0M+20.1%$1.2B+25.4%1.74$2.7B
Q4'25 *$600.0M+7.9%$809.0M−36.3%1.18$7.1B
Q3'25$621.0M+12.1%$896.0M−33.2%1.22$3.6B
Q2'25$604.0M+8.2%$729.0M−22.9%1.03$2.2B
Q1'25$611.0M+5.9%$945.0M+9.0%1.28$4.3B
Q4'24 *$556.0M−97.1%$1.3B+109.4%1.75$4.6B
Q3'24$554.0M0.0%$1.3B+174.4%1.81$4.2B
Q2'24$558.0M+2.2%$946.0M+135.3%1.28$3.5B
Q1'24$577.0M+2.7%$867.0M+983.8%1.10$2.3B
Q4'23$19.0B+21.9%$607.0M−61.5%0.77$5.2B
Q3'23$554.0M+8.4%$489.0M−57.9%0.56$3.5B
Q2'23$546.0M+4.0%$402.0M−55.8%0.48$3.0B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+4.9%+12.5%−27.6%−18.5%
Operating cash flow+9.4%+8.0%+2.0%+5.2%
Free cash flow+9.4%+8.0%+2.0%+5.2%
EPS (diluted)−9.2%−3.7%+0.2%+3.4%
Equity−1.7%−17.6%−8.4%−3.5%
LT debt−0.4%−0.2%−2.2%−4.2%
Diluted shares−5.9%−5.9%−5.0%−1.8%
Stock price+18.4%+12.5%+13.3%+11.6%

$100, 3 years ago

$166vs $176 in SPY

18.4% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$180vs $181 in SPY

12.5% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$347vs $412 in SPY

13.3% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$520vs $813 in SPY

11.6% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$1.10

$15.1B created / $13.7B retained

Last 10 years

$0.78

$20.7B created / $26.5B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

39.9%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

31.9%

MC vs 10× OCF

0.36

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

0.8y

SBC / FCF

0.8%

Owner earnings

$17.0B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

27.7%

Share count 5y

−0.6%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

22 of 26 checks pass · 85%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/7

  • Revenue growth

    12.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    -3.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • FCF growth

    8.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    8.0% vs 12.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

5/6

  • Net margin

    138.7% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    251.9% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    11.9% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    39.9% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    701.6% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $17.1B vs NI $3.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    0.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    152% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    0.51 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $28.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail
  • Interest burden

    12% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -0.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    26% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    28.0% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    18.1 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    -17.6% vs 2.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    7.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20252,4366,1373,3794.7117,09217,0921,5092,88313122,03214,46728,398673
20242,2455,9964,4265.9414,59814,5981,5273,20716820,06815,08627,445711
20232,2295,7231,5781.8113,72113,7211,5663,10317120,63915,54830,015762
20222,1105,9785,2846.3013,04413,0441,5983,32618420,19514,64729,881809
20212,0746,8557.6512,34712,3471,6474,30317320,04713,93367,482869
20201,3545,4075.6811,63911,6391,6571,15112719,79514,60374,558913
20191,2895,8996.0613,78613,7861,6432,28515016,59813,46666,144944
20181,2565,1234.9111,73811,7381,6783,9928615,82112,82952,7411,014
201762,3084,0103.6212,28312,2831,7172,92712812,70115,68658,6761,079
201660,7878500.6714,77414,7741,73637214712,65116,44167,5311,109
201561,3435,3734.6214,05214,0521,6531,93013711,18218,02368,0981,128
201473,3166,3095.4216,37616,3761,4991,0001929,20516,28672,2081,143
201368,1993,3682.9116,13116,1311,11901757,58518,65361,5531,116
201268,1501,3241.1217,16017,160811016815,73864,4531,077
201170,2416,4235.7610,27310,27378714410,46123,69257,5191,068
201052,2472,6672.867,9857,98578408412,95727,58648,625890
200940,657-2,246-2.893,8033,80361006910,02413,22033,121818
200850,9823,2094.1410,70210,7025921,25012324,1319,66723,734745
200747,1524,3175.489,9029,9025411,7059,96137,002

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.