MDT
Medtronic · Health Care · Health Care Equipment
$92.90
52w 73.31 – 106.33
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$118.9B
P/E
24.8
P/FCF
21.9
FCF yield
4.6%
ROE
9.7%
Shldr yield
3.9%
div 3.1% + bb 0.9%
What today's price assumes
At $118.9B, the market is pricing in 9.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 2.7% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $59 · $59 · $73 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 14.7× across 14 years, MDT would trade near $84/share (25th–75th percentile: $75–$93); it trades at 16.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+5.2%
Rev 5y
+3.8%
Rev 10y
+2.3%
EPS 5y
+7.0%
EPS 10y
+4.2%
FCF 5y
+2.1%
FCF 10y
+2.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2013–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 * | $9.8B | +9.9% | $1.2B | +17.8% | 0.96 | $2.6B |
| Q3'26 | $9.0B | +8.7% | $1.1B | −11.7% | 0.89 | $2.7B |
| Q2'26 | $9.0B | +6.6% | $1.4B | +8.2% | 1.07 | $925.0M |
| Q1'26 | $8.6B | +8.4% | $1.0B | −0.2% | 0.81 | $1.1B |
| Q4'25 * | $8.9B | +3.9% | $1.1B | +61.5% | 0.81 | $2.5B |
| Q3'25 | $8.3B | +2.5% | $1.3B | −2.1% | 1.01 | $2.6B |
| Q2'25 | $8.4B | +5.2% | $1.3B | +39.7% | 0.99 | $958.0M |
| Q1'25 | $7.9B | +2.8% | $1.0B | +31.7% | 0.80 | $986.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $8.6B | +0.5% | $654.0M | −44.6% | 0.50 | $2.8B |
| Q3'24 | $8.1B | +4.7% | $1.3B | +8.2% | 0.99 | $2.5B |
| Q2'24 | $8.0B | +5.3% | $909.0M | +112.9% | 0.68 | $661.0M |
| Q1'24 | $7.7B | +4.5% | $791.0M | −14.9% | 0.59 | $875.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $8.5B | +5.6% | $1.2B | −20.5% | 0.88 | $2.5B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.2% | +3.8% | +2.3% | — |
| Operating cash flow | +6.7% | +3.3% | +3.5% | — |
| Free cash flow | +5.8% | +2.1% | +2.7% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +9.8% | +7.0% | +4.2% | — |
| Equity | −1.3% | −0.8% | −0.5% | — |
| LT debt | +2.4% | −0.2% | −1.3% | — |
| Diluted shares | −1.1% | −1.0% | −1.0% | — |
| Stock price | +8.0% | −4.0% | +3.3% | +9.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$126vs $176 in SPY
8.0% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$81vs $181 in SPY
-4.0% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$139vs $412 in SPY
3.3% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$383vs $813 in SPY
9.4% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$-12.76
−$51.6B created / $4.0B retained
Last 10 years
$0.59
$6.3B created / $10.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
9.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.62
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
4.8y
SBC / FCF
8.4%
Owner earnings
$5.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.2%
Share count 5y
+1.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
20.4%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.35
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
16 of 26 checks pass · 62%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- fail
Revenue growth
3.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
7.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
2.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
3.3% vs 3.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/6
- pass
Net margin
13.2% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
17.8% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
9.7% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
9.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
14.9% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $7.3B vs NI $4.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
4.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
7% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.53 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$49.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
11% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
86% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.6% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
24.8 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
9.0% vs 2.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36,364 | — | 6,467 | 4,801 | 3.73 | 7,330 | 1,904 | 5,426 | 3,639 | 1,035 | 457 | 1,949 | 26,173 | 49,463 | 1,288 |
| 2025 | 33,537 | — | 5,955 | 4,662 | 3.61 | 7,044 | 1,859 | 5,185 | 3,589 | 3,235 | 429 | 2,218 | 25,642 | 48,024 | 1,290 |
| 2024 | 32,364 | — | 5,144 | 3,676 | 2.76 | 6,787 | 1,587 | 5,200 | 3,666 | 2,138 | 393 | 1,284 | 23,932 | 50,214 | 1,330 |
| 2023 | 31,227 | — | 5,485 | 3,758 | 2.82 | 6,039 | 1,459 | 4,580 | 3,616 | 645 | 355 | 1,543 | 24,344 | 51,483 | 1,333 |
| 2022 | 31,686 | — | 5,752 | 5,039 | 3.73 | 7,346 | 1,368 | 5,978 | 3,383 | 2,544 | 359 | 3,714 | 20,372 | 52,551 | 1,351 |
| 2021 | 30,117 | — | 4,484 | 3,606 | 2.66 | 6,240 | 1,355 | 4,885 | 3,120 | 652 | 344 | 3,593 | 26,378 | 51,428 | 1,354 |
| 2020 | 28,913 | — | 4,791 | 4,789 | 3.54 | 7,234 | 1,213 | 6,021 | 2,894 | 1,326 | 297 | 4,140 | 22,140 | 50,737 | 1,351 |
| 2019 | 30,557 | — | 6,268 | 4,631 | 3.41 | 7,007 | 1,134 | 5,873 | 2,693 | 2,877 | 290 | 4,393 | 24,552 | 50,091 | 1,358 |
| 2018 | 29,953 | 20,898 | 6,640 | 3,104 | 2.27 | 4,684 | 1,068 | 3,616 | 2,494 | 2,171 | 344 | 3,669 | 23,692 | 50,720 | 1,368 |
| 2017 | 29,710 | 20,419 | 5,383 | 4,028 | 2.89 | 6,880 | 1,254 | 5,626 | 2,376 | 3,544 | 348 | 4,967 | 25,874 | 50,208 | 1,391 |
| 2016 | 28,833 | 19,691 | 5,361 | 3,538 | 2.48 | 5,218 | 1,046 | 4,172 | 2,139 | 2,830 | 375 | 2,876 | 29,944 | 52,063 | 1,426 |
| 2015 | 20,261 | 13,952 | 3,766 | 2,675 | 2.41 | 4,902 | 571 | 4,331 | 1,337 | 1,920 | 439 | 4,843 | 33,171 | 53,230 | 1,109 |
| 2014 | 17,005 | 12,672 | 3,813 | 3,065 | 3.02 | 4,959 | 396 | 4,563 | 1,116 | 2,553 | 145 | 1,403 | 10,315 | 19,443 | 1,014 |
| 2013 | 16,590 | — | 4,402 | 3,467 | 3.37 | 4,942 | 457 | 4,485 | 1,055 | 1,247 | 152 | 919 | — | 18,671 | 1,028 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.