MMarketMath

MDLZ

StalwartQuality: Medium (55/100)3 red flags

Mondelez International · Consumer Staples · Packaged Foods & Meats

$64.70

52w 51.20 – 66.65

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$83.1B

P/E

33.6

P/FCF

25.5

FCF yield

3.9%

ROE

9.5%

Shldr yield

5.9%

div 3.0% + bb 2.9%

What today's price assumes

At $83.1B, the market is pricing in 11.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 3.9% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $38 · $38 · $47 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 15.0× across 18 years, MDLZ would trade near $53/share (25th–75th percentile: $27–$67); it trades at 18.4× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+7.0%

Rev 5y

+7.7%

Rev 10y

+2.7%

EPS 5y

−5.2%

EPS 10y

−8.2%

FCF 5y

+0.8%

FCF 10y

+3.9%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $35.9B
2008: $40.5B
2009: $38.8B
2010: $31.5B
2011: $35.8B
2012: $35.0B
2013: $35.3B
2014: $34.2B
2015: $29.6B
2016: $25.9B
2017: $25.9B
2018: $25.9B
2019: $25.9B
2020: $26.6B
2021: $28.7B
2022: $31.5B
2023: $36.0B
2024: $36.4B
2025: $38.5B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $2.7B
2008: $2.9B
2009: $3.0B
2010: $4.1B
2011: $3.6B
2012: $3.1B
2013: $3.9B
2014: $2.2B
2015: $7.3B
2016: $1.6B
2017: $2.8B
2018: $3.3B
2019: $3.9B
2020: $3.6B
2021: $4.3B
2022: $2.7B
2023: $5.0B
2024: $4.6B
2025: $2.5B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $2.3B
2008: $2.8B
2009: $3.8B
2010: $2.1B
2011: $2.7B
2012: $2.3B
2013: $4.8B
2014: $1.9B
2015: $2.2B
2016: $1.6B
2017: $1.6B
2018: $2.9B
2019: $3.0B
2020: $3.1B
2021: $3.2B
2022: $3.0B
2023: $3.6B
2024: $3.5B
2025: $3.2B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 1.5B
2009: 1.5B
2010: 1.7B
2011: 1.8B
2012: 1.8B
2013: 1.8B
2014: 1.7B
2015: 1.6B
2016: 1.6B
2017: 1.5B
2018: 1.5B
2019: 1.5B
2020: 1.4B
2021: 1.4B
2022: 1.4B
2023: 1.4B
2024: 1.3B
2025: 1.3B
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

10%20%30%40%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $5.3B
2008: $2.4B
2009: $1.7B
2010: $2.2B
2011: $2.0B
2012: $2.1B
2013: $3.8B
2014: $2.7B
2015: $4.6B
2016: $3.7B
2017: $3.4B
2018: $3.4B
2019: $3.0B
2020: $3.1B
2021: $3.9B
2022: $4.0B
2023: $3.7B
2024: $4.7B
2025: $4.9B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$10.0B$20.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $9.2B
Q2'23: $8.5B
Q3'23: $9.0B
Q4'23: $9.3B
Q1'24: $9.3B
Q2'24: $8.3B
Q3'24: $9.2B
Q4'24: $9.6B
Q1'25: $9.3B
Q2'25: $9.0B
Q3'25: $9.7B
Q4'25: $10.5B
Q1'26: $10.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $2.1B
Q2'23: $944.0M
Q3'23: $984.0M
Q4'23: $950.0M
Q1'24: $1.4B
Q2'24: $601.0M
Q3'24: $853.0M
Q4'24: $1.7B
Q1'25: $402.0M
Q2'25: $641.0M
Q3'25: $743.0M
Q4'25: $665.0M
Q1'26: $560.0M
$0$1.0B$2.0B
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$10.1B+8.2%$560.0M+39.3%0.44$467.0M
Q4'25 *$10.5B+9.3%$665.0M−61.9%0.52$2.4B
Q3'25$9.7B+5.9%$743.0M−12.9%0.57$717.0M
Q2'25$9.0B+7.7%$641.0M+6.7%0.49$308.0M
Q1'25$9.3B+0.2%$402.0M−71.5%0.31$1.1B
Q4'24 *$9.6B+3.1%$1.7B+83.7%1.30$1.5B
Q3'24$9.2B+1.9%$853.0M−13.3%0.63$1.3B
Q2'24$8.3B−1.9%$601.0M−36.3%0.45$822.0M
Q1'24$9.3B+1.4%$1.4B−32.1%1.04$1.3B
Q4'23 *$9.3B+7.1%$950.0M+63.0%0.69$1.6B
Q3'23$9.0B+16.3%$984.0M+85.0%0.72$1.2B
Q2'23$8.5B+17.0%$944.0M+26.4%0.69$850.0M
Q1'23$9.2B+18.1%$2.1B+143.4%1.52$1.1B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+7.0%+7.7%+2.7%+1.4%
Operating cash flow+4.9%+2.6%+1.9%+1.2%
Free cash flow+2.5%+0.8%+3.9%+3.0%
EPS (diluted)−1.2%−5.2%−8.2%−1.6%
Equity−1.3%−1.3%−0.8%−2.2%
LT debt−5.3%−0.1%+1.2%−2.9%
Diluted shares−2.1%−2.1%−2.3%−1.9%
Stock price−0.3%+3.5%+6.2%+9.5%

$100, 3 years ago

$99vs $176 in SPY

-0.3% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$119vs $181 in SPY

3.5% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$182vs $412 in SPY

6.2% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$390vs $813 in SPY

9.5% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$0.65

$5.4B created / $8.2B retained

Last 10 years

$1.17

$19.4B created / $16.6B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

10.5%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

4.6%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.82

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

5.3y

SBC / FCF

3.5%

Owner earnings

$3.1B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.8%

Share count 5y

−0.9%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

—

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

—

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

12 of 27 checks pass · 44%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

4/7

  • Revenue growth

    7.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    -5.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • FCF growth

    0.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    2.6% vs 7.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

2/7

  • Net margin

    6.4% · ≥ 8%

    fail

  • Operating margin

    9.2% · ≥ 10%

    fail

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    28.4% vs 35.9% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    fail

  • Return on equity

    9.5% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    10.5% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • FCF margin

    8.4% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $4.5B vs NI $2.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

1/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    5.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    13% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.67 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $25.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail

  • Interest burden

    17% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -0.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    151% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    fail

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.9% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    33.6 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    11.0% vs 3.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    5.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy debt load

Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.

Distributions exceed FCF

Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.

Margin compression

Gross margin has fallen by more than 5 points over the last three years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202538,53710,9353,5482,4511.894,5141,2793,2352,4872,3851142,19517,22225,8381,298
202436,44114,2576,3454,6113.424,9101,3873,5232,3492,3341471,40015,66426,9321,347
202336,01613,7645,5024,9593.624,7141,1123,6022,1601,5471461,88416,88728,3321,370
202231,49611,3123,5342,7171.963,9089063,0021,9852,0171201,94820,25126,8831,385
202128,72011,2544,6534,3003.044,1419653,1761,8262,1101213,55317,55028,2691,413
202026,58110,4463,8533,5552.473,9648633,1011,6781,3901263,65017,27627,5781,441
201925,86810,3373,8433,9292.693,9659253,0401,5421,4801351,32815,87527,2411,458
201825,93810,3523,3123,3172.233,9481,0952,8531,3592,0201281,10015,25025,6371,486
201725,89610,0343,4622,8281.852,5931,0141,5791,1982,17413776114,19925,9941,531
201625,92310,1042,5541,6351.042,8381,2241,6141,0942,6011401,74114,73725,1611,573
201529,63611,5128,8977,2674.443,7281,5142,2141,0083,622136—15,23228,0121,637
201434,24412,5973,2422,1841.283,5621,6421,9209641,700141—15,40527,7501,709
201335,29913,1103,9713,9152.196,4101,6224,7889432,900128—15,51332,3731,789
201235,01513,0763,6373,0671.713,9231,6102,3132,058—1624,47519,16232,2761,789
201135,81013,1003,4983,5542.014,5201,7712,7492,043—1811,97423,09535,2171,772
201031,48911,8722,4964,1142.393,7481,6612,0872,175—1742,48126,85935,8341,720
200938,75413,9355,1833,0212.035,0841,3303,7541,71201642,10118,02425,8761,486
200840,49213,3283,5762,8841.904,1411,3672,7741,6637771781,24418,58922,2951,515
200735,85812,2024,1762,7211.703,5711,2412,3301,6383,708136567—27,445—

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗