MCO
Moody's Corporation · Financials · Financial Exchanges & Data
$511.35
52w 402.28 – 546.88
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$88.6B
P/E
35.5
P/FCF
33.9
FCF yield
3.0%
ROE
60.7%
Shldr yield
2.6%
div 0.8% + bb 1.8%
What today's price assumes
At $88.6B, the market is pricing in 14.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 8.8% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $227 · $322 · $401 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 17.1× across 19 years, MCO would trade near $287/share (25th–75th percentile: $185–$525); it trades at 30.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+12.2%
Rev 5y
+7.5%
Rev 10y
+8.3%
EPS 5y
+7.8%
EPS 10y
+11.4%
FCF 5y
+4.7%
FCF 10y
+8.8%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $2.2B | +15.1% | $878.0M | +51.9% | 5.03 | $779.0M |
| Q1'26 | $2.1B | +8.1% | $661.0M | +5.8% | 3.73 | $939.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $1.9B | +13.0% | $610.0M | +54.4% | 3.40 | $858.0M |
| Q3'25 | $2.0B | +10.7% | $646.0M | +21.0% | 3.60 | $743.0M |
| Q2'25 | $1.9B | +4.5% | $578.0M | +4.7% | 3.21 | $543.0M |
| Q1'25 | $1.9B | +7.7% | $625.0M | +8.3% | 3.46 | $757.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.7B | +13.0% | $395.0M | +16.2% | 2.16 | $674.0M |
| Q3'24 | $1.8B | +23.2% | $534.0M | +37.3% | 2.93 | $703.0M |
| Q2'24 | $1.8B | +21.6% | $552.0M | +46.4% | 3.02 | $686.0M |
| Q1'24 | $1.8B | +21.5% | $577.0M | +15.2% | 3.15 | $775.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.5B | +14.7% | $340.0M | +38.2% | 1.85 | $477.0M |
| Q3'23 | $1.5B | +15.5% | $389.0M | +28.4% | 2.11 | $462.0M |
| Q2'23 | $1.5B | +8.2% | $377.0M | +15.3% | 2.05 | $604.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +12.2% | +7.5% | +8.3% | +9.3% |
| Operating cash flow | +25.3% | +6.2% | +9.2% | +10.4% |
| Free cash flow | +29.3% | +4.7% | +8.8% | +10.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | +22.5% | +7.8% | +11.4% | +13.1% |
| Equity | +17.2% | +20.9% | +23.0% | — |
| LT debt | −1.8% | +1.7% | +7.5% | +12.3% |
| Diluted shares | −0.9% | −1.0% | −1.2% | −1.8% |
| Stock price | +15.8% | +6.9% | +17.8% | +21.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$155vs $176 in SPY
15.8% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$140vs $181 in SPY
6.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$516vs $412 in SPY
17.8% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,954vs $813 in SPY
21.9% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$6.45
$44.2B created / $6.8B retained
Last 10 years
$6.96
$76.0B created / $10.9B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
26.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.2%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.00
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.7y
SBC / FCF
9.0%
Owner earnings
$2.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.7%
Share count 5y
−2.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
9.4%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.19
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 28.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 23.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 6.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 25 checks pass · 72%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
7.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
7.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
4.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
6.2% vs 7.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
31.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
43.4% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
60.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
26.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
33.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.9B vs NI $2.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
34% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
1.73 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$4.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
9% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
90% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
3.0% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
35.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
14.9% vs 8.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7,718 | — | 3,351 | 2,459 | 13.67 | 2,901 | 326 | 2,575 | 701 | 1,607 | 232 | 2,384 | 6,994 | 4,054 | 180 |
| 2024 | 7,088 | — | 2,875 | 2,058 | 11.26 | 2,838 | 317 | 2,521 | 620 | 1,292 | 220 | 2,408 | 6,731 | 3,565 | 183 |
| 2023 | 5,916 | — | 2,137 | 1,607 | 8.73 | 2,151 | 271 | 1,880 | 564 | 490 | 193 | 2,130 | 7,001 | 3,318 | 184 |
| 2022 | 5,468 | — | 1,883 | 1,374 | 7.44 | 1,474 | 283 | 1,191 | 515 | 983 | 169 | 1,769 | 7,389 | 2,519 | 185 |
| 2021 | 6,218 | — | 2,844 | 2,214 | 11.78 | 2,005 | 139 | 1,866 | 463 | 750 | 175 | 1,811 | 7,413 | 2,727 | 188 |
| 2020 | 5,371 | — | 2,388 | 1,778 | 9.39 | 2,146 | 103 | 2,043 | 420 | 503 | 154 | 2,597 | 6,422 | 1,569 | 189 |
| 2019 | 4,829 | — | 1,998 | 1,422 | 7.42 | 1,675 | 69 | 1,606 | 378 | 991 | 136 | 1,832 | 5,581 | 612 | 192 |
| 2018 | 4,443 | — | 1,868 | 1,310 | 6.74 | 1,461 | 91 | 1,370 | 337 | 203 | 130 | 1,685 | 5,226 | 459 | 194 |
| 2017 | 4,204 | — | 1,821 | 1,001 | 5.15 | 755 | 91 | 664 | 290 | 200 | 123 | 1,072 | 5,111 | -328 | 194 |
| 2016 | 3,604 | — | 651 | 267 | 1.36 | 1,259 | 115 | 1,144 | 285 | 739 | 98 | 2,052 | 3,063 | -1,225 | 195 |
| 2015 | 3,485 | — | 1,473 | 941 | 4.63 | 1,198 | 89 | 1,109 | 272 | 1,098 | 87 | 1,757 | 3,381 | -565 | 203 |
| 2014 | 3,334 | — | 1,439 | 989 | 4.61 | 1,019 | 75 | 944 | 236 | 1,221 | 80 | 1,220 | 2,547 | -188 | 215 |
| 2013 | 2,973 | — | 1,235 | 805 | 3.60 | 927 | 42 | 885 | 197 | 893 | 67 | 1,920 | 2,102 | 337 | 224 |
| 2012 | 2,730 | — | 1,077 | 690 | 3.05 | 823 | 45 | 778 | 143 | 197 | 65 | 1,755 | 1,607 | 385 | 227 |
| 2011 | 2,281 | — | 888 | 571 | 2.49 | 803 | 68 | 736 | 121 | 334 | 57 | 760 | 1,173 | -169 | 229 |
| 2010 | 2,032 | — | 773 | 508 | 2.15 | 653 | 79 | 574 | 99 | 224 | 57 | 660 | 1,228 | -310 | 237 |
| 2009 | 1,797 | — | 688 | 402 | 1.69 | 644 | 91 | 553 | 95 | 0 | 57 | 474 | 746 | -606 | 238 |
| 2008 | 1,755 | — | 748 | 458 | 1.87 | 540 | 84 | 455 | 97 | 593 | 63 | 246 | 750 | -994 | 245 |
| 2007 | 2,259 | — | 1,131 | 702 | 2.58 | 988 | 182 | 806 | 85 | 1,738 | 90 | 426 | — | -772 | 272 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.