MMarketMath

MCK

StalwartQuality: Medium (59/100)

McKesson Corporation · Health Care · Health Care Distributors

$873.79

52w 673.38 – 999.00

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$101.9B

P/E

21.0

P/FCF

17.5

FCF yield

5.7%

ROE

-219.2%

Shldr yield

5.1%

div 0.4% + bb 4.7%

What today's price assumes

At $101.9B, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 6.0% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $748 · $867 · $1,081 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 9.3× across 19 years, MCK would trade near $489/share (25th–75th percentile: $355–$698); it trades at 16.6× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+13.4%

Rev 5y

+11.1%

Rev 10y

+7.8%

EPS 5y

EPS 10y

+14.7%

FCF 5y

+6.9%

FCF 10y

+6.0%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings

Revenue

2008: $101.7B
2009: $106.6B
2010: $108.7B
2011: $112.1B
2012: $122.3B
2013: $122.2B
2014: $137.4B
2015: $179.0B
2016: $190.9B
2017: $198.5B
2018: $208.4B
2019: $214.3B
2020: $231.1B
2021: $238.2B
2022: $264.0B
2023: $276.7B
2024: $309.0B
2025: $359.1B
2026: $403.4B
$0$200.0B$400.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Net income

2008: $990.0M
2009: $823.0M
2010: $1.3B
2011: $1.2B
2012: $1.4B
2013: $1.3B
2014: $1.3B
2015: $1.5B
2016: $2.3B
2017: $5.1B
2018: $67.0M
2019: $34.0M
2020: $900.0M
2021: −$4.5B
2022: $1.1B
2023: $3.6B
2024: $3.0B
2025: $3.3B
2026: $4.8B
−$2.5B$0$2.5B$5.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Free cash flow

2008: $674.0M
2009: $1.2B
2010: $2.1B
2011: $2.1B
2012: $2.7B
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.9B
2015: $2.7B
2016: $3.2B
2017: $4.3B
2018: $3.9B
2019: $3.6B
2020: $4.0B
2021: $4.1B
2022: $4.0B
2023: $4.8B
2024: $3.9B
2025: $5.5B
2026: $5.7B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 298.0M
2009: 279.0M
2010: 273.0M
2011: 263.0M
2012: 251.0M
2013: 239.0M
2014: 233.0M
2015: 235.0M
2016: 233.0M
2017: 223.0M
2018: 209.0M
2019: 197.3M
2020: 181.6M
2021: 160.6M
2022: 154.1M
2023: 142.2M
2024: 134.1M
2025: 128.1M
2026: 124.1M
0100.0M200.0M
08
12
16
20
24

Margins

-3%0%3%5%08111417202326
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2008: $70.0M
2009: $116.0M
2010: $454.0M
2011: $2.2B
2012: $2.1B
2013: $1.4B
2014: $344.0M
2015: $677.0M
2016: $1.9B
2017: $2.6B
2018: $2.0B
2019: $1.9B
2020: $2.2B
2021: $1.0B
2022: $3.8B
2023: $3.9B
2024: $3.3B
2025: $3.5B
2026: $5.1B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$5.0B$10.0B08111417202326
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'24: $74.5B
Q2'24: $77.2B
Q3'24: $80.9B
Q4'24: $76.4B
Q1'25: $79.3B
Q2'25: $93.7B
Q3'25: $95.3B
Q4'25: $90.8B
Q1'26: $97.8B
Q2'26: $103.2B
Q3'26: $106.2B
Q4'26: $96.3B
Q1'27: $105.4B
$0$50.0B$100.0B
24
24
25
26
27

Net income by quarter

Q1'24: $958.0M
Q2'24: $664.0M
Q3'24: $589.0M
Q4'24: $791.0M
Q1'25: $915.0M
Q2'25: $241.0M
Q3'25: $879.0M
Q4'25: $1.3B
Q1'26: $784.0M
Q2'26: $1.1B
Q3'26: $1.2B
Q4'26: $1.7B
Q1'27: $614.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
24
24
25
26
27
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'27$105.4B+7.7%$614.0M−21.7%5.15−$220.0M
Q4'26 *$96.3B+6.0%$1.7B+33.5%13.62$3.4B
Q3'26$106.2B+11.4%$1.2B+34.9%9.59$1.2B
Q2'26$103.2B+10.1%$1.1B+360.6%8.92$2.4B
Q1'26$97.8B+23.4%$784.0M−14.3%6.25−$918.0M
Q4'25 *$90.8B+18.9%$1.3B+59.3%9.90$7.7B
Q3'25$95.3B+17.8%$879.0M+49.2%6.95−$2.4B
Q2'25$93.7B+21.3%$241.0M−63.7%1.87$2.1B
Q1'25$79.3B+6.4%$915.0M−4.5%7.00−$1.4B
Q4'24 *$76.4B+10.8%$791.0M+0.5%6.03$4.1B
Q3'24$80.9B+14.8%$589.0M−45.4%4.42$254.0M
Q2'24$77.2B+10.1%$664.0M−28.3%4.92$965.0M
Q1'24$74.5B+10.9%$958.0M+24.7%7.02−$1.1B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+13.4%+11.1%+7.8%+8.9%
Operating cash flow+6.1%+6.3%+5.3%+6.7%
Free cash flow+6.2%+6.9%+6.0%+6.9%
EPS (diluted)+15.3%+40.7%+14.7%+15.2%
Equity−22.9%−8.6%−3.8%
LT debt+5.3%−1.8%−2.1%+4.1%
Diluted shares−4.4%−5.0%−6.1%−4.9%
Stock price+29.0%+34.4%+17.7%+18.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$215vs $176 in SPY

29.0% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$439vs $181 in SPY

34.4% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$510vs $412 in SPY

17.7% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,219vs $813 in SPY

18.1% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$5.08

$71.8B created / $14.1B retained

Last 10 years

$4.54

$64.9B created / $14.3B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

141.4%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

6.0%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.63

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.1y

SBC / FCF

4.3%

Owner earnings

$5.5B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

5.5%

Share count 5y

−4.8%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

0.7%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.00

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

20 of 26 checks pass · 77%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/6

  • Revenue growth

    11.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • FCF growth

    6.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    6.3% vs 11.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

3/7

  • Net margin

    1.2% · ≥ 8%

    fail
  • Operating margin

    1.5% · ≥ 10%

    fail
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    3.6% vs 4.5% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    -219.2% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    141.4% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    1.4% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $6.2B vs NI $4.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    61% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    -3.00 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    −$2.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail
  • Interest burden

    4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -4.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    90% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    5.7% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    21.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    5.9% vs 6.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    5.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
2026403,43014,5506,2124,76238.386,1554365,7193814,7502473,9756,526-2,172124
2025359,05113,3234,4223,29525.726,0855375,5483453,1462265,6915,654-2,074128
2024308,95112,8283,9093,00222.394,3144313,8833143,0251824,5835,629-1,971134
2023276,71112,3584,3813,56025.035,1593904,7692923,6381624,6785,594-1,857142
2022263,96613,1302,0381,1147.234,4343884,0462773,5161613,5325,879-2,272154
2021238,22812,148-5,040-4,539-28.264,5424514,0912767421516,2787,148-21161
2020231,05112,0232,4899004.954,3743624,0122941,9341194,0157,3875,092182
2019214,31911,754886340.174,0364263,6102921,639952,9817,5958,094197
2018208,35711,184762670.324,3454053,9402621,709692,6727,8809,804209
2017198,53311,2717,1225,07022.734,7444044,3402532,3111152,7838,36211,095223
2016190,88411,4163,5452,2589.703,6724883,1842441,6121234,0488,1078,924233
2015179,04511,4112,9681,4766.273,1123762,7362274501745,3419,7098,001235
2014137,3928,3522,4391,2635.413,1362782,8582141301604,19310,3468,522233
2013122,1966,8812,3471,3385.592,4832412,2421941,2141672,4564,8737,070239
2012122,3216,4022,1241,4035.592,9502212,7291951,8741543,1493,0726,831251
2011112,0845,9701,8211,2024.572,3382332,1051712,0501373,6123,5877,220263
2010108,7025,6762,0081,2634.622,3161992,1171313231143,7312,2937,532273
2009106,6325,3781,1968232.951,3511951,156116992,1092,2906,193279
2008101,7035,0091,4789903.3286919567470911,3626,121298

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.