MAR
Marriott International · Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
$360.20
52w 256.76 – 410.98
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$93.9B
P/E
35.7
P/FCF
35.6
FCF yield
2.8%
ROE
-69.0%
Shldr yield
4.3%
div 0.8% + bb 3.6%
What today's price assumes
At $93.9B, the market is pricing in 15.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 8.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $152 · $204 · $254 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 16.2× across 17 years, MAR would trade near $200/share (25th–75th percentile: $144–$289); it trades at 29.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+8.0%
Rev 5y
+19.9%
Rev 10y
+6.1%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+11.7%
FCF 5y
+11.6%
FCF 10y
+8.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $7.1B | +4.8% | $766.0M | +0.4% | 2.90 | $948.0M |
| Q1'26 | $6.7B | +6.2% | $648.0M | −2.6% | 2.43 | $858.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $6.7B | +4.1% | $445.0M | −2.2% | 1.67 | $829.0M |
| Q3'25 | $6.5B | +3.7% | $728.0M | +24.7% | 2.67 | $1.1B |
| Q2'25 | $6.7B | +4.7% | $763.0M | −1.2% | 2.78 | $643.0M |
| Q1'25 | $6.3B | +4.8% | $665.0M | +17.9% | 2.39 | $647.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $6.4B | +5.5% | $455.0M | −46.3% | 1.64 | $318.0M |
| Q3'24 | $6.3B | +5.5% | $584.0M | −22.3% | 2.07 | $880.0M |
| Q2'24 | $6.4B | +6.0% | $772.0M | +6.3% | 2.69 | $772.0M |
| Q1'24 | $6.0B | +6.4% | $564.0M | −25.5% | 1.93 | $779.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $6.1B | +2.9% | $848.0M | +26.0% | 2.86 | $751.0M |
| Q3'23 | $5.9B | +11.6% | $752.0M | +19.4% | 2.51 | $881.0M |
| Q2'23 | $6.1B | +13.8% | $726.0M | +7.1% | 2.38 | $651.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +8.0% | +19.9% | +6.1% | +5.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +10.8% | +14.4% | +7.8% | +7.1% |
| Free cash flow | +8.7% | +11.6% | +8.0% | +7.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | +9.5% | +16.5% | +11.7% | +14.7% |
| Equity | −6.9% | −30.8% | −8.2% | −6.1% |
| LT debt | −37.0% | −30.6% | −40.0% | −27.2% |
| Diluted shares | −5.7% | −3.4% | +0.0% | −2.1% |
| Stock price | +22.0% | +22.6% | +18.7% | +19.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$182vs $176 in SPY
22.0% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$277vs $181 in SPY
22.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$553vs $412 in SPY
18.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,526vs $813 in SPY
19.9% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$5.38
$49.5B created / $9.2B retained
Last 10 years
$5.79
$70.8B created / $12.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
—
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.5%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.89
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.0y
SBC / FCF
9.0%
Owner earnings
$2.4B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.6%
Share count 5y
−1.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
7.5%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.03
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
16 of 24 checks pass · 67%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/6
- pass
Revenue growth
19.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
11.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
14.4% vs 19.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/5
- pass
Net margin
9.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
15.8% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-69.0% · ≥ 12%
- na
Cash ROIC
— · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
10.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.2B vs NI $2.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
1557% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
-0.01 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
−$3.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
20% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
9% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
154% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
35.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
15.6% vs 8.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26,186 | — | 4,141 | 2,601 | 9.51 | 3,212 | 604 | 2,608 | 718 | 3,300 | 236 | 358 | 23 | -3,771 | 274 |
| 2024 | 25,100 | — | 3,767 | 2,375 | 8.33 | 2,749 | 750 | 1,999 | 682 | 3,762 | 237 | 396 | 55 | -2,992 | 285 |
| 2023 | 23,713 | — | 3,864 | 3,083 | 10.18 | 3,170 | 452 | 2,718 | 587 | 3,953 | 205 | 338 | 56 | -682 | 303 |
| 2022 | 20,773 | — | 3,462 | 2,358 | 7.24 | 2,363 | 332 | 2,031 | 321 | 2,566 | 192 | 507 | 92 | 568 | 326 |
| 2021 | 13,857 | — | 1,750 | 1,099 | 3.34 | 1,177 | 183 | 994 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 1,393 | 135 | 1,414 | 329 |
| 2020 | 10,571 | — | 84 | -267 | -0.82 | 1,639 | 135 | 1,504 | 156 | 150 | 201 | 877 | 143 | 430 | 326 |
| 2019 | 20,972 | — | 1,800 | 1,273 | 3.80 | 1,685 | 653 | 1,032 | 612 | 2,260 | 187 | 225 | 247 | 703 | 336 |
| 2018 | 20,758 | — | 2,366 | 1,907 | 5.38 | 2,357 | 556 | 1,801 | 543 | 2,850 | 184 | 316 | 8,514 | 2,225 | 354 |
| 2017 | 20,452 | — | 2,504 | 1,459 | 3.84 | 2,227 | 240 | 1,987 | 482 | 3,013 | 181 | 383 | 7,840 | 3,582 | 380 |
| 2016 | 15,407 | — | 1,424 | 808 | 2.73 | 1,619 | 199 | 1,420 | 374 | 568 | 212 | 858 | 8,197 | 5,121 | 296 |
| 2015 | 14,486 | — | 1,350 | 859 | 3.15 | 1,515 | 305 | 1,210 | 253 | 1,917 | 113 | 96 | 3,807 | -3,590 | 273 |
| 2014 | 13,796 | — | 1,159 | 753 | 2.54 | 1,224 | 411 | 813 | 223 | 1,510 | 109 | 104 | 3,447 | -2,200 | 297 |
| 2013 | 12,784 | — | 988 | 626 | 2.00 | 1,140 | 296 | 844 | 196 | 834 | 116 | 126 | 3,147 | -1,415 | 313 |
| 2012 | 11,814 | — | 940 | 571 | 1.72 | 989 | 437 | 552 | 191 | 1,145 | 94 | 88 | 2,528 | -1,285 | 333 |
| 2011 | 12,317 | — | 526 | 198 | 0.55 | 1,089 | 183 | 906 | 134 | 1,425 | 103 | 102 | 1,816 | -781 | 362 |
| 2010 | 11,691 | — | 695 | 458 | 1.21 | 1,151 | 307 | 844 | 43 | 57 | 90 | 505 | 2,691 | 1,585 | 378 |
| 2009 | 12,879 | — | 765 | 362 | 0.98 | 641 | 357 | 284 | 115 | 434 | 112 | 134 | 2,975 | 1,380 | 371 |
| 2007 | 12,990 | — | 1,183 | 696 | 1.73 | 778 | 671 | 107 | 105 | 1,757 | — | 332 | — | 1,462 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.