MA
Mastercard · Financials · Transaction & Payment Processing Services
$599.86
52w 464.52 – 601.62
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$73.5B
P/E
4.8
P/FCF
4.1
FCF yield
24.1%
ROE
193.5%
Shldr yield
20.4%
div 3.9% + bb 16.5%
What today's price assumes
At $73.5B, the market is pricing in -15.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 15.9% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $2,134 · $4,788 · $6,368 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 30.5× across 19 years, MA would trade near $4,391/share (25th–75th percentile: $3,193–$5,003); it trades at 4.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+13.8%
Rev 5y
+6.8%
Rev 10y
+13.0%
EPS 5y
+21.0%
EPS 10y
+17.3%
FCF 5y
+20.0%
FCF 10y
+15.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $9.3B | +14.1% | $4.4B | +18.6% | 4.97 | $3.8B |
| Q1'26 | $8.4B | +15.8% | $3.9B | +18.4% | 4.35 | $3.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $8.8B | +17.6% | $4.1B | +21.5% | 4.52 | $5.0B |
| Q3'25 | $8.6B | +16.7% | $3.9B | +20.3% | 4.34 | $5.7B |
| Q2'25 | $8.1B | +16.8% | $3.7B | +13.6% | 4.07 | $4.6B |
| Q1'25 | $7.3B | +14.2% | $3.3B | +8.9% | 3.59 | $2.4B |
| Q4'24 * | $7.5B | +14.4% | $3.3B | +19.7% | 3.64 | $4.8B |
| Q3'24 | $7.4B | +12.8% | $3.3B | +2.0% | 3.53 | $5.1B |
| Q2'24 | $7.0B | +11.0% | $3.3B | +14.5% | 3.50 | $3.1B |
| Q1'24 | $6.3B | +10.4% | $3.0B | +27.5% | 3.22 | $1.7B |
| Q4'23 * | $6.5B | — | $2.8B | +10.5% | 2.97 | $4.1B |
| Q3'23 | $6.5B | −28.7% | $3.2B | +28.0% | 3.39 | $3.2B |
| Q2'23 | $6.3B | −28.0% | $2.8B | +25.1% | 3.00 | $2.7B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +13.8% | +6.8% | +13.0% | +12.6% |
| Operating cash flow | +16.4% | +19.6% | +15.7% | +16.9% |
| Free cash flow | +16.9% | +20.0% | +15.9% | +17.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | +17.4% | +21.0% | +17.3% | +17.7% |
| Equity | +7.1% | +3.9% | +2.5% | +2.7% |
| LT debt | +9.9% | +8.7% | +18.8% | +52.2% |
| Diluted shares | −2.3% | −2.1% | −2.2% | −2.3% |
| Stock price | +14.0% | +12.3% | +20.7% | +22.0% |
$100, 3 years ago
$148vs $176 in SPY
14.0% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$178vs $181 in SPY
12.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$658vs $412 in SPY
20.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,980vs $813 in SPY
22.0% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$3.82
$178.3B created / $46.6B retained
Last 10 years
$5.65
$391.4B created / $69.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
67.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
22.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.40
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.1y
SBC / FCF
3.5%
Owner earnings
$16.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
23.3%
Share count 5y
−2.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
7.0%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.04
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 10.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 146.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 16.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
25 of 26 checks pass · 96%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
6.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
21.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
20.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
19.6% vs 6.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
45.6% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
57.6% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
193.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
67.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
52.3% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $17.6B vs NI $15.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
58% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
2.36 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$7.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
84% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
24.1% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
4.8 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-15.1% vs 15.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
20.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32,791 | — | 18,897 | 14,968 | 16.52 | 17,648 | 489 | 17,159 | 2,756 | 11,727 | 597 | 10,566 | 18,251 | 7,737 | 906 |
| 2024 | 28,167 | — | 15,582 | 12,874 | 13.89 | 14,780 | 474 | 14,306 | 2,448 | 10,954 | 526 | 8,442 | 17,476 | 6,485 | 927 |
| 2023 | 25,098 | — | 14,008 | 11,195 | 11.83 | 11,980 | 371 | 11,609 | 2,158 | 9,032 | 460 | 8,588 | 14,344 | 6,929 | 946 |
| 2022 | 22,237 | — | 12,264 | 9,930 | 10.22 | 11,195 | 442 | 10,753 | 1,903 | 8,753 | 295 | 7,008 | 13,749 | 6,298 | 971 |
| 2021 | 29,845 | — | 10,082 | 8,687 | 8.76 | 9,463 | 407 | 9,056 | 1,741 | 5,904 | 273 | 7,421 | 13,109 | 7,312 | 992 |
| 2020 | 23,616 | — | 8,081 | 6,411 | 6.37 | 7,224 | 339 | 6,885 | 1,605 | 4,473 | 254 | 10,113 | 12,023 | 6,391 | 1,006 |
| 2019 | 24,980 | — | 9,664 | 8,118 | 7.94 | 8,183 | 422 | 7,761 | 1,345 | 6,497 | 250 | 6,988 | 8,527 | 5,893 | 1,022 |
| 2018 | 21,831 | — | 7,282 | 5,859 | 5.60 | 6,223 | 330 | 5,893 | 1,044 | 4,933 | 196 | 6,682 | 5,834 | 5,395 | 1,047 |
| 2017 | 12,497 | — | 6,622 | 3,915 | 3.65 | 5,664 | 300 | 5,364 | 942 | 3,762 | 176 | 5,933 | 5,424 | 5,468 | 1,072 |
| 2016 | 10,776 | — | 5,761 | 4,059 | 3.69 | 4,637 | 215 | 4,422 | 837 | 3,511 | 149 | 6,721 | 5,180 | 5,656 | 1,101 |
| 2015 | 9,667 | — | 5,078 | 3,808 | 3.35 | 4,101 | 177 | 3,924 | 727 | 3,518 | 122 | 5,747 | 3,268 | 6,028 | 1,137 |
| 2014 | 9,473 | — | 5,106 | 3,617 | 3.10 | 3,407 | 175 | 3,232 | 515 | 3,386 | -15 | 5,137 | 1,494 | 6,790 | 1,169 |
| 2013 | 8,346 | — | 4,503 | 3,116 | 2.56 | 4,135 | 155 | 3,980 | 255 | 2,443 | 63 | 3,599 | 0 | 7,484 | 1,215 |
| 2012 | 7,391 | — | 3,937 | 2,759 | 2.19 | 2,948 | 96 | 2,852 | 132 | 1,748 | 0 | 2,052 | — | 6,917 | 1,258 |
| 2011 | 6,714 | — | 2,713 | 1,906 | 1.48 | 2,684 | 77 | 2,607 | 77 | 1,148 | 35 | 3,734 | — | 5,868 | 1,284 |
| 2010 | 5,539 | — | 2,752 | 1,846 | 1.43 | 1,697 | 61 | 1,636 | 79 | 0 | 63 | 3,067 | — | 5,205 | 1,284 |
| 2009 | 5,099 | — | 2,260 | 1,463 | 1.14 | 1,378 | 57 | 1,321 | 79 | 0 | 88 | 2,055 | 22 | 3,504 | 1,274 |
| 2008 | 4,992 | — | -534 | -254 | -0.20 | 413 | 76 | 337 | 79 | 649 | 61 | 1,505 | 19 | 1,927 | 1,274 |
| 2007 | 4,068 | — | 1,108 | 1,086 | 0.81 | 770 | 82 | 688 | 74 | 601 | 58 | 1,659 | — | 3,032 | 1,325 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.