LRCX
Lam Research · Information Technology · Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
$310.17
52w 94.11 – 438.50
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$388.1B
P/E
56.5
P/FCF
83.9
FCF yield
1.2%
ROE
58.3%
Shldr yield
1.2%
div 0.3% + bb 0.9%
What today's price assumes
At $388.1B, the market is pricing in 27.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 15.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $60 · $134 · $171 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 14.0× across 17 years, LRCX would trade near $66/share (25th–75th percentile: $46–$99); it trades at 66.3× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+10.1%
Rev 5y
+9.7%
Rev 10y
+14.7%
EPS 5y
+15.6%
EPS 10y
+26.7%
FCF 5y
+8.6%
FCF 10y
+15.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 * | $6.7B | +30.0% | $2.3B | +32.4% | 1.81 | $1.5B |
| Q3'26 | $5.8B | +23.8% | $1.8B | +37.2% | 1.45 | $1.1B |
| Q2'26 | $5.3B | +22.1% | $1.6B | +33.8% | 1.26 | $1.5B |
| Q1'26 | $5.3B | +27.7% | $1.6B | +40.5% | 1.24 | $1.8B |
| Q4'25 * | $5.2B | +33.6% | $1.7B | +68.6% | 1.34 | $2.6B |
| Q3'25 | $4.7B | +24.4% | $1.3B | +37.8% | 1.03 | $1.3B |
| Q2'25 | $4.4B | +16.4% | $1.2B | +24.8% | 0.92 | $741.9M |
| Q1'25 | $4.2B | +19.7% | $1.1B | +25.8% | 0.86 | $1.6B |
| Q4'24 * | $3.9B | +20.7% | $1.0B | +27.1% | 0.78 | $862.4M |
| Q3'24 | $3.8B | −2.0% | $965.8M | +18.7% | 0.73 | $1.4B |
| Q2'24 | $3.8B | −28.8% | $954.3M | −35.0% | 0.72 | $1.5B |
| Q1'24 | $3.5B | −31.4% | $887.4M | −37.8% | 0.67 | $951.2M |
| Q4'23 * | $3.2B | −30.8% | $802.5M | −33.6% | -23.85 | $1.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.1% | +9.7% | +14.7% | +14.0% |
| Operating cash flow | +4.2% | +10.3% | +15.8% | +13.5% |
| Free cash flow | +1.5% | +8.6% | +15.3% | +13.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | +20.2% | +15.6% | +26.7% | +16.3% |
| Equity | +15.0% | +15.7% | +7.8% | +11.4% |
| LT debt | −9.2% | −5.6% | +1.0% | +9.9% |
| Diluted shares | −2.4% | −2.1% | −2.9% | +0.3% |
| Stock price | +65.5% | +40.1% | +43.9% | +35.8% |
$100, 3 years ago
$454vs $176 in SPY
65.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$540vs $181 in SPY
40.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$3,806vs $412 in SPY
43.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$9,838vs $813 in SPY
35.8% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$13.95
$284.6B created / $20.4B retained
Last 10 years
$11.79
$356.3B created / $30.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
36.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
7.01
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.8y
SBC / FCF
7.9%
Owner earnings
$4.5B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.1%
Share count 5y
+0.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
12.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.19
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 16.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 56.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
21 of 27 checks pass · 78%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
9.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
15.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
8.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
10.3% vs 9.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
31.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
35.3% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
50.5% vs 44.6% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
58.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
36.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
21.1% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.9B vs NI $7.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
150% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.30 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$12.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
2% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
105% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
56.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
27.4% vs 15.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23,233 | 11,725 | 8,200 | 7,265 | 5.76 | 5,858 | 966 | 4,891 | 1,271 | 3,851 | 386 | 5,579 | 3,722 | 12,471 | 1,261 |
| 2025 | 18,436 | 8,979 | 5,901 | 5,358 | 4.15 | 6,173 | 759 | 5,414 | 1,150 | 3,422 | 343 | 6,391 | 3,720 | 9,862 | 1,290 |
| 2024 | 14,905 | 7,053 | 4,264 | 3,828 | 2.90 | 4,652 | 397 | 4,256 | 1,019 | 2,843 | 293 | 5,848 | 4,466 | 8,539 | 1,320 |
| 2023 | 17,429 | 7,777 | 5,175 | 4,511 | 3.32 | 5,179 | 502 | 4,677 | 908 | 2,017 | 287 | 5,337 | 4,965 | 8,210 | 1,358 |
| 2022 | 17,227 | 7,872 | 5,382 | 4,605 | 3.39 | 3,100 | 546 | 2,554 | 815 | 3,866 | 259 | 3,522 | 4,962 | 6,278 | 1,358 |
| 2021 | 14,626 | 6,805 | 4,482 | 3,908 | 2.78 | 3,588 | 349 | 3,239 | 727 | 2,698 | 220 | 4,418 | 4,961 | 6,027 | 1,404 |
| 2020 | 10,045 | 4,609 | 2,674 | 2,252 | 1.56 | 2,126 | 203 | 1,923 | 657 | 1,370 | 189 | 4,915 | 4,959 | 5,172 | 1,440 |
| 2019 | 9,654 | 4,358 | 2,465 | 2,191 | 1.42 | 3,176 | 303 | 2,873 | 678 | 3,781 | 187 | 3,658 | 3,768 | 4,674 | 1,545 |
| 2018 | 11,077 | 5,165 | 3,213 | 2,381 | 1.36 | 2,656 | 273 | 2,382 | 308 | 2,653 | 172 | 4,512 | 1,760 | 6,502 | 1,746 |
| 2017 | 8,014 | 3,603 | 1,902 | 1,698 | 0.96 | 2,029 | 157 | 1,872 | 243 | 812 | 150 | 2,378 | 1,779 | 6,817 | 1,775 |
| 2016 | 5,886 | 2,619 | 1,074 | 914 | 0.54 | 1,350 | 175 | 1,175 | 190 | 158 | 142 | 5,039 | 3,378 | 5,895 | 1,692 |
| 2015 | 5,259 | 2,284 | 788 | 656 | 0.38 | 786 | 198 | 587 | 116 | 573 | 135 | 1,502 | 994 | 5,103 | 1,710 |
| 2014 | 4,607 | 2,007 | 678 | 632 | 0.37 | 717 | 146 | 572 | 0 | 245 | 104 | 1,453 | 807 | 5,030 | 1,686 |
| 2013 | 3,599 | 1,403 | 118 | 114 | 0.07 | 720 | 161 | 559 | — | 956 | 99 | 1,162 | 777 | 4,489 | 1,675 |
| 2012 | 2,665 | 1,084 | 238 | 169 | 0.14 | 499 | 107 | 392 | — | 773 | 82 | 1,565 | 749 | 5,132 | 1,210 |
| 2011 | 3,238 | 1,497 | 804 | 724 | 0.60 | 881 | 127 | 754 | — | 211 | 53 | 1,492 | 901 | 2,470 | 1,208 |
| 2010 | 2,134 | 970 | 425 | 347 | 0.28 | 351 | 36 | 315 | — | 93 | 50 | 546 | 7 | 1,768 | 1,238 |
| 2009 | 1,116 | 389 | -281 | -302 | -0.25 | -78 | 44 | -122 | — | 31 | 53 | 374 | — | 1,453 | 1,213 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.