LMT
Lockheed Martin · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
$564.14
52w 437.25 – 692.00
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$130.2B
P/E
25.9
P/FCF
18.8
FCF yield
5.3%
ROE
74.6%
Shldr yield
4.7%
div 2.4% + bb 2.3%
What today's price assumes
At $130.2B, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 5.2% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $456 · $498 · $620 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 11.5× across 18 years, LMT would trade near $426/share (25th–75th percentile: $303–$506); it trades at 15.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+4.4%
Rev 5y
+2.8%
Rev 10y
+6.4%
EPS 5y
−2.4%
EPS 10y
+6.5%
FCF 5y
+1.5%
FCF 10y
+5.2%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $20.1B | +10.5% | $1.8B | +436.8% | 7.94 | $3.2B |
| Q1'26 | $18.0B | +0.3% | $1.5B | −13.1% | 6.44 | $220.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $20.3B | +9.1% | $1.3B | +155.0% | 5.80 | $3.2B |
| Q3'25 | $18.6B | +8.8% | $1.6B | −0.2% | 6.95 | $3.7B |
| Q2'25 | $18.2B | +0.2% | $342.0M | −79.2% | 1.46 | $201.0M |
| Q1'25 | $18.0B | +4.5% | $1.7B | +10.8% | 7.28 | $1.4B |
| Q4'24 * | $18.6B | −1.3% | $527.0M | −71.8% | 2.27 | $1.0B |
| Q3'24 | $17.1B | +1.3% | $1.6B | −3.6% | 6.80 | $2.4B |
| Q2'24 | $18.1B | +8.6% | $1.6B | −2.4% | 6.85 | $1.9B |
| Q1'24 | $17.2B | +13.7% | $1.5B | −8.5% | 6.39 | $1.6B |
| Q4'23 * | $18.9B | −0.6% | $1.9B | −2.4% | 7.58 | $2.4B |
| Q3'23 | $16.9B | +1.8% | $1.7B | −5.3% | 6.73 | $2.9B |
| Q2'23 | $16.7B | +8.1% | $1.7B | +444.0% | 6.63 | $1.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.4% | +2.8% | +6.4% | +3.4% |
| Operating cash flow | +3.1% | +0.9% | +5.3% | +5.6% |
| Free cash flow | +4.1% | +1.5% | +5.2% | +6.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | −0.3% | −2.4% | +6.5% | +7.0% |
| Equity | −10.2% | +2.2% | +8.1% | +4.5% |
| LT debt | +10.0% | +12.0% | +3.7% | +9.8% |
| Diluted shares | −4.1% | −3.6% | −2.9% | −3.0% |
| Stock price | +10.6% | +12.2% | +11.6% | +17.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$135vs $176 in SPY
10.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$178vs $181 in SPY
12.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$300vs $412 in SPY
11.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,184vs $813 in SPY
17.9% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.84
$68.4B created / $14.1B retained
Last 10 years
$3.50
$96.1B created / $27.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
31.4%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.52
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.0y
SBC / FCF
4.4%
Owner earnings
$6.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.1%
Share count 5y
−3.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
11.8%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.17
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 21.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 4.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 0.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 27 checks pass · 63%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/7
- fail
Revenue growth
2.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-2.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
1.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
0.9% vs 2.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/7
- fail
Net margin
6.7% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
10.3% · ≥ 10%
- fail
Gross margin stable or rising
10.2% vs 12.6% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
74.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
31.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
9.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $8.6B vs NI $5.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
3.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
20% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
3.05 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$6.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
14% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-3.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
89% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
25.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
6.9% vs 5.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 75,048 | 7,619 | 7,731 | 5,017 | 21.49 | 8,557 | 1,649 | 6,908 | 3,131 | 3,000 | 304 | 4,121 | 20,532 | 6,721 | 234 |
| 2024 | 71,043 | 6,930 | 7,013 | 5,336 | 22.31 | 6,972 | 1,685 | 5,287 | 3,059 | 3,700 | 277 | 2,483 | 19,627 | 6,333 | 239 |
| 2023 | 67,571 | 8,479 | 8,507 | 6,920 | 27.55 | 7,920 | 1,691 | 6,229 | 3,056 | 6,000 | 265 | 1,442 | 17,291 | 6,835 | 251 |
| 2022 | 65,984 | 8,287 | 8,348 | 5,732 | 21.66 | 7,802 | 1,670 | 6,132 | 3,016 | 7,900 | 238 | 2,547 | 15,429 | 9,266 | 265 |
| 2021 | 67,044 | 9,061 | 9,123 | 6,315 | 22.76 | 9,221 | 1,522 | 7,699 | 2,940 | 4,087 | 227 | 3,604 | 11,670 | 10,959 | 277 |
| 2020 | 65,398 | 8,654 | 8,644 | 6,833 | 24.30 | 8,183 | 1,766 | 6,417 | 2,764 | 1,100 | 221 | 3,160 | 11,669 | 6,015 | 281 |
| 2019 | 59,812 | 8,367 | 8,545 | 6,230 | 21.95 | 7,311 | 1,484 | 5,827 | 2,556 | 1,200 | 189 | 1,514 | 11,404 | 3,127 | 284 |
| 2018 | 53,762 | 7,274 | 7,334 | 5,046 | 17.59 | 3,138 | 1,278 | 1,860 | 2,347 | 1,492 | 173 | 772 | 12,604 | 1,394 | 287 |
| 2017 | 49,960 | 6,371 | 6,744 | 1,963 | 6.75 | 6,476 | 1,177 | 5,299 | 2,163 | 2,001 | 158 | 2,861 | 13,513 | -850 | 291 |
| 2016 | 47,290 | 5,401 | 5,888 | 5,173 | 17.07 | 5,189 | 1,063 | 4,126 | 2,048 | 2,096 | 149 | 1,837 | 14,282 | 1,511 | 303 |
| 2015 | 40,536 | 4,492 | 4,712 | 3,605 | 11.46 | 5,101 | 939 | 4,162 | 1,932 | 3,071 | 138 | 1,090 | 14,305 | 3,097 | 315 |
| 2014 | 39,946 | 4,683 | 5,012 | 3,614 | 11.21 | 3,866 | 845 | 3,021 | 1,760 | 1,900 | 164 | 1,446 | 6,142 | 3,400 | 322 |
| 2013 | 45,358 | 4,187 | 4,505 | 2,981 | 9.13 | 4,546 | 836 | 3,710 | 1,540 | 1,762 | 189 | 2,617 | 6,152 | 4,918 | 327 |
| 2012 | 47,182 | 4,196 | 4,434 | 2,745 | 8.36 | 1,561 | 942 | 619 | 1,352 | 990 | 167 | 1,898 | 6,158 | 39 | 328 |
| 2011 | 46,499 | 3,744 | 4,020 | 2,655 | 7.81 | 4,253 | 987 | 3,266 | 1,095 | 2,465 | 157 | 3,582 | 6,460 | 1,001 | 340 |
| 2010 | 45,671 | 3,844 | 4,105 | 2,878 | 7.81 | 3,801 | 1,074 | 2,727 | 969 | 2,420 | 168 | 2,261 | 5,019 | 3,497 | 368 |
| 2009 | 43,867 | 4,147 | 4,367 | 2,973 | 7.64 | 3,487 | 852 | 2,635 | 908 | 1,851 | 154 | 2,391 | 5,052 | 3,966 | 389 |
| 2008 | 41,372 | 4,574 | 5,049 | 3,217 | 7.86 | 4,421 | 926 | 3,495 | 737 | 2,931 | 155 | 2,168 | 3,563 | 2,865 | 409 |
| 2007 | 41,862 | 4,234 | 4,527 | 3,033 | 7.10 | 4,238 | 940 | 3,298 | 615 | 2,127 | 149 | 2,648 | — | 9,805 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.