LLY
Lilly (Eli) · Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
$1,246.93
52w 694.23 – 1,292.65
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$1.17T
P/E
57.3
P/FCF
70.3
FCF yield
1.4%
ROE
77.8%
Shldr yield
0.8%
div 0.5% + bb 0.3%
What today's price assumes
At $1.17T, the market is pricing in 24.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 19.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $272 · $611 · $880 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 17.4× across 18 years, LLY would trade near $311/share (25th–75th percentile: $147–$514); it trades at 69.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+31.7%
Rev 5y
+21.6%
Rev 10y
+12.6%
EPS 5y
+27.6%
EPS 10y
+26.1%
FCF 5y
+20.9%
FCF 10y
+19.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $23.0B | +47.7% | $7.1B | +25.3% | 7.94 | $10.7B |
| Q1'26 | $19.8B | +55.5% | $7.4B | +168.1% | 8.26 | $5.3B |
| Q4'25 * | $19.3B | +42.5% | $6.6B | +50.5% | 7.39 | $3.2B |
| Q3'25 | $17.6B | +53.9% | $5.6B | +475.3% | 6.21 | $8.8B |
| Q2'25 | $15.6B | +37.6% | $5.7B | +90.8% | 6.29 | $3.1B |
| Q1'25 | $12.7B | +45.2% | $2.8B | +23.0% | 3.06 | $1.7B |
| Q4'24 * | $13.5B | +44.7% | $4.4B | +101.4% | 4.88 | $2.5B |
| Q3'24 | $11.4B | +20.4% | $970.3M | — | 1.07 | $3.7B |
| Q2'24 | $11.3B | +36.0% | $3.0B | +68.3% | 3.28 | $1.5B |
| Q1'24 | $8.8B | +26.0% | $2.2B | +66.8% | 2.48 | $1.2B |
| Q4'23 * | $9.4B | +28.1% | $2.2B | +13.0% | 2.42 | −$312.0M |
| Q3'23 | $9.5B | +36.8% | −$57.4M | −104.0% | -0.06 | $2.2B |
| Q2'23 | $8.3B | +28.1% | $1.8B | +85.1% | 1.95 | $631.9M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +31.7% | +21.6% | +12.6% | +7.2% |
| Operating cash flow | +30.4% | +20.9% | +19.0% | +6.2% |
| Free cash flow | +30.4% | +20.9% | +19.0% | +6.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | +49.3% | +27.6% | +26.1% | +11.3% |
| Equity | +35.6% | +36.3% | +6.2% | +5.2% |
| LT debt | +40.5% | +19.8% | +17.8% | +12.7% |
| Diluted shares | −0.2% | −0.3% | −1.7% | −1.4% |
| Stock price | +31.9% | +38.2% | +34.0% | +29.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$229vs $176 in SPY
31.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$504vs $181 in SPY
38.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,873vs $412 in SPY
34.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$4,622vs $813 in SPY
29.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$27.23
$750.1B created / $27.5B retained
Last 10 years
$23.82
$858.8B created / $36.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
24.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
7.03
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.4y
SBC / FCF
3.7%
Owner earnings
$16.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.4%
Share count 5y
−1.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 92.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 24.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 23.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 24 checks pass · 71%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
21.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
27.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
20.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
20.9% vs 21.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/5
- pass
Net margin
31.7% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
77.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
24.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
25.8% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $16.8B vs NI $20.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
18% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
1.54 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$26.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
56% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.4% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
57.3 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
24.9% vs 19.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 65,179 | — | — | 20,640 | 22.95 | 16,813 | — | 16,813 | 5,384 | 4,108 | 626 | 7,268 | 40,868 | 26,535 | 899 |
| 2024 | 45,043 | — | — | 10,590 | 11.71 | 8,818 | — | 8,818 | 4,680 | 2,500 | 646 | 3,268 | 28,527 | 14,272 | 904 |
| 2023 | 34,124 | — | — | 5,240 | 5.80 | 4,240 | — | 4,240 | 4,069 | 750 | 629 | 2,819 | 18,321 | 10,772 | 903 |
| 2022 | 28,541 | — | — | 6,245 | 6.90 | 7,586 | — | 7,586 | 3,536 | 1,500 | 371 | 2,067 | 14,738 | 10,650 | 905 |
| 2021 | 28,318 | — | — | 5,582 | 6.12 | 7,366 | — | 7,366 | 3,087 | 1,250 | 343 | 3,819 | 15,346 | 8,979 | 912 |
| 2020 | 24,540 | — | — | 6,194 | 6.79 | 6,500 | — | 6,500 | 2,687 | 500 | 308 | 3,657 | 16,587 | 5,642 | 913 |
| 2019 | 22,320 | — | — | 8,318 | 8.89 | 4,837 | — | 4,837 | 2,410 | 4,400 | 312 | 2,338 | 13,818 | 2,607 | 936 |
| 2018 | 21,493 | — | — | 3,232 | 3.13 | 5,525 | — | 5,525 | 2,312 | 4,151 | 280 | 7,321 | 9,196 | 9,829 | 1,034 |
| 2017 | 19,974 | — | — | -204 | -0.19 | 5,616 | — | 5,616 | 2,192 | 300 | 281 | 6,536 | 9,941 | 11,592 | 1,052 |
| 2016 | 21,222 | — | — | 2,738 | 2.58 | 4,851 | — | 4,851 | 2,159 | 600 | 255 | 4,582 | 8,368 | 14,008 | 1,062 |
| 2015 | 19,959 | — | — | 2,408 | 2.26 | 2,965 | — | 2,965 | 2,127 | 750 | 218 | 3,666 | 7,972 | 14,571 | 1,066 |
| 2014 | 19,616 | — | — | 2,391 | 2.23 | 4,458 | — | 4,458 | 2,101 | 800 | 156 | 3,872 | 5,333 | 15,373 | 1,074 |
| 2013 | 23,113 | — | — | 4,685 | 4.32 | 5,735 | — | 5,735 | 2,121 | 1,698 | 145 | 3,830 | 4,200 | 17,631 | 1,085 |
| 2012 | 22,603 | — | — | 4,089 | 3.66 | 5,305 | — | 5,305 | 2,187 | 721 | 142 | 4,019 | 5,519 | 14,765 | 1,117 |
| 2011 | 24,287 | — | — | 4,348 | 3.90 | 7,235 | — | 7,235 | 2,180 | 0 | 147 | 5,923 | 5,465 | 13,542 | 1,114 |
| 2010 | 23,076 | — | — | 5,070 | 4.58 | 6,857 | — | 6,857 | 2,165 | 0 | 231 | 5,993 | 6,771 | 12,420 | 1,106 |
| 2009 | 21,836 | — | — | 4,329 | 3.94 | 4,336 | — | 4,336 | 2,152 | — | 369 | 4,463 | 6,635 | 9,525 | 1,098 |
| 2008 | 20,372 | — | — | -2,072 | -1.89 | 7,296 | — | 7,296 | 2,057 | — | 255 | 5,497 | 4,616 | 6,738 | 1,094 |
| 2007 | 18,634 | — | — | 2,953 | — | 5,155 | — | 5,155 | 1,854 | — | -282 | 3,221 | — | — | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.