LITE
Lumentum · Information Technology · Communications Equipment
$830.17
52w 119.25 – 1,085.68
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$74.5B
P/E
—
P/FCF
226.4
FCF yield
0.4%
ROE
-149.3%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $74.5B, the market is pricing in 41.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 51.9% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $51 · $114 · $165 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 20.3× across 12 years, LITE would trade near $170/share (25th–75th percentile: $114–$530); it trades at 99.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+19.5%
Rev 5y
+11.6%
Rev 10y
+12.8%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
−14.4%
FCF 10y
+51.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2013–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 * | $1.0B | +109.3% | −$7.2B | −3457.6% | -95.40 | $363.0M |
| Q3'26 | $808.4M | +90.1% | $144.2M | — | 1.50 | $203.8M |
| Q2'26 | $665.5M | +65.5% | $78.2M | — | 0.89 | $126.7M |
| Q1'26 | $533.8M | +58.4% | $4.2M | — | 0.05 | $57.9M |
| Q4'25 * | $480.7M | +55.9% | $213.3M | — | 3.10 | $64.0M |
| Q3'25 | $425.2M | +16.0% | −$44.1M | — | -0.64 | −$1.6M |
| Q2'25 | $402.2M | +9.7% | −$60.9M | — | -0.88 | $24.3M |
| Q1'25 | $336.9M | +6.1% | −$82.4M | — | -1.21 | $39.6M |
| Q4'24 * | $308.3M | −16.9% | −$252.5M | — | -3.75 | $35.5M |
| Q3'24 | $366.5M | −4.4% | −$127.0M | — | -1.88 | −$7.0M |
| Q2'24 | $366.8M | −27.5% | −$99.1M | — | -1.47 | −$1.5M |
| Q1'24 | $317.6M | −37.3% | −$67.9M | — | -1.02 | −$2.3M |
| Q4'23 * | $370.8M | −12.2% | −$60.2M | −273.5% | -0.89 | $49.2M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +19.5% | +11.6% | +12.8% | — |
| Operating cash flow | +61.1% | +0.3% | +24.1% | — |
| Free cash flow | +80.2% | −14.4% | +51.9% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | −48.3% | −26.7% | +6.8% | — |
| Equity | +50.7% | +18.7% | +25.0% | — |
| LT debt | −64.0% | −51.6% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +3.0% | −1.0% | +2.4% | — |
| Stock price | +148.5% | +57.1% | +37.2% | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$1,534vs $176 in SPY
148.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$958vs $181 in SPY
57.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$2,364vs $412 in SPY
37.2% vs 15.2%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
16.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
9.04
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.1y
SBC / FCF
56.7%
Owner earnings
$129.9M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.2%
Share count 5y
+2.0%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.40
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
14 of 25 checks pass · 56%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
2/6
- pass
Revenue growth
11.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-14.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
7 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
5 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
0.3% vs 11.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/7
- fail
Net margin
-230.1% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
17.4% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
41.7% vs 32.2% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-149.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
16.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
10.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $751.4M vs NI −$6.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
5046% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.01 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$4.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
2.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
57% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
4 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/3
- fail
FCF yield
0.4% · ≥ 3%
- na
Earnings multiple
— · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
41.9% vs 51.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Net loss
The company reported a net loss in the latest fiscal year.
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3,014 | 1,256 | 525 | -6,935 | -92.96 | 751 | 451 | 300 | — | — | 170 | 2,044 | 41 | 4,644 | 75 |
| 2025 | 1,645 | 460 | -180 | 26 | 0.37 | 126 | 231 | -105 | — | 0 | 177 | 521 | 2,563 | 1,135 | 70 |
| 2024 | 1,359 | 252 | -434 | -547 | -8.12 | 25 | 133 | -108 | — | 0 | 129 | 437 | 2,503 | 957 | 67 |
| 2023 | 1,767 | 569 | -116 | -132 | -1.93 | 180 | 129 | 51 | — | 176 | 148 | 859 | — | 1,356 | 68 |
| 2022 | 1,713 | 789 | 303 | 199 | 2.68 | 459 | 91 | 368 | — | 544 | 103 | 1,290 | 2,411 | 1,875 | 74 |
| 2021 | 1,743 | 783 | 527 | 397 | 5.07 | 739 | 85 | 654 | — | 236 | 93 | 774 | 1,532 | 1,973 | 78 |
| 2020 | 1,679 | 650 | 204 | 136 | 1.75 | 524 | 86 | 438 | — | 200 | 73 | 298 | 1,539 | 1,749 | 78 |
| 2019 | 1,565 | 426 | -22 | -36 | -0.54 | 330 | 166 | 164 | — | 0 | 61 | 433 | — | 1,497 | 71 |
| 2018 | 1,248 | 432 | 140 | 248 | 3.82 | 248 | 93 | 154 | — | 0 | 47 | 397 | 457 | 926 | 63 |
| 2017 | 1,002 | 318 | 48 | -103 | -1.71 | 85 | 138 | -53 | — | — | 33 | 273 | 457 | 619 | 61 |
| 2016 | 903 | 277 | 12 | 9 | -0.05 | 87 | 82 | 5 | — | — | 25 | 157 | — | 497 | 59 |
| 2015 | 837 | 258 | -23 | -3 | -0.06 | 9 | 54 | -44 | — | — | 18 | 15 | — | 381 | 59 |
| 2014 | 818 | 257 | 9 | 11 | 0.18 | 63 | 64 | -1 | — | — | 19 | 20 | — | 336 | 59 |
| 2013 | 770 | 223 | 4 | 7 | 0.11 | 55 | 32 | 23 | — | — | 16 | 8 | — | 282 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.