LIN
Linde plc · Materials · Industrial Gases
$490.03
52w 387.78 – 548.20
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$225.9B
P/E
32.7
P/FCF
44.4
FCF yield
2.3%
ROE
18.0%
Shldr yield
3.3%
div 1.2% + bb 2.0%
What today's price assumes
At $225.9B, the market is pricing in 18.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 16.1% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $168 · $377 · $511 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 16.4× across 10 years, LIN would trade near $368/share (25th–75th percentile: $317–$450); it trades at 21.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+0.6%
Rev 5y
+4.5%
Rev 10y
+13.9%
EPS 5y
+25.4%
EPS 10y
+12.1%
FCF 5y
+4.8%
FCF 10y
+16.1%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $9.3B | +9.3% | $1.9B | +9.2% | 4.15 | $2.3B |
| Q1'26 | $8.8B | +8.2% | $1.9B | +11.0% | 3.98 | $2.2B |
| Q4'25 * | $8.8B | +5.8% | $1.5B | −11.3% | 3.28 | $3.0B |
| Q3'25 | $8.6B | +3.1% | $1.9B | +24.5% | 4.09 | $2.9B |
| Q2'25 | $8.5B | +2.8% | $1.8B | +6.2% | 3.73 | $2.2B |
| Q1'25 | $8.1B | +0.1% | $1.7B | +2.8% | 3.51 | $2.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $8.3B | −0.2% | $1.7B | +11.8% | 3.61 | $2.8B |
| Q3'24 | $8.4B | +2.5% | $1.6B | −1.0% | 3.22 | $2.7B |
| Q2'24 | $8.3B | +0.8% | $1.7B | +5.6% | 3.44 | $1.9B |
| Q1'24 | $8.1B | −1.1% | $1.6B | +7.3% | 3.35 | $2.0B |
| Q4'23 * | $8.3B | +5.1% | $1.5B | +16.2% | 3.15 | $2.7B |
| Q3'23 | $8.2B | −7.3% | $1.6B | +22.9% | 3.19 | $2.5B |
| Q2'23 | $8.2B | −3.0% | $1.6B | +323.4% | 3.19 | $2.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +0.6% | +4.5% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +5.3% | +6.9% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | −3.7% | +4.8% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +21.1% | +25.4% | — | — |
| Equity | −1.5% | −4.2% | — | — |
| LT debt | +19.2% | +11.2% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −2.2% | −2.3% | — | — |
| Stock price | +9.6% | +10.8% | +16.9% | +13.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$132vs $176 in SPY
9.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$167vs $181 in SPY
10.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$475vs $412 in SPY
16.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$657vs $813 in SPY
13.4% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$6.17
$93.5B created / $15.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
17.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.18
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
4.1y
SBC / FCF
3.2%
Owner earnings
$4.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.2%
Share count 5y
+5.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
83.2%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$-0.07
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
16 of 26 checks pass · 62%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- fail
Revenue growth
4.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
25.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
4.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
6.9% vs 4.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
20.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
26.3% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
18.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
17.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
15.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $10.3B vs NI $6.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
4.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
24% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.54 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$38.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
6% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
5.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
146% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
32.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
18.6% vs 16.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33,986 | — | 8,923 | 6,898 | 14.61 | 10,350 | 5,261 | 5,089 | 2,811 | 4,601 | 164 | 5,056 | 20,683 | 38,245 | 472 |
| 2024 | 33,005 | — | 8,635 | 6,565 | 13.62 | 9,423 | 4,497 | 4,926 | 2,655 | 4,482 | 160 | 4,850 | 15,343 | 38,092 | 482 |
| 2023 | 32,854 | — | 8,024 | 6,199 | 12.59 | 9,305 | 3,787 | 5,518 | 2,482 | 3,958 | 141 | 4,664 | 13,397 | 39,720 | 492 |
| 2022 | 33,364 | — | 5,369 | 4,147 | 8.23 | 8,864 | 3,173 | 5,691 | 2,344 | 5,168 | 107 | 5,436 | 12,198 | 40,028 | 504 |
| 2021 | 30,793 | — | 4,984 | 3,826 | 7.33 | 9,725 | 3,086 | 6,639 | 2,189 | 4,612 | 128 | 2,823 | 11,335 | 44,035 | 522 |
| 2020 | 27,243 | — | 3,322 | 2,501 | 4.71 | 7,429 | 3,400 | 4,029 | 2,028 | 2,457 | 133 | 3,754 | 12,152 | 47,317 | 531 |
| 2019 | 28,228 | — | 2,933 | 2,285 | 4.19 | 6,119 | 3,682 | 2,437 | 1,891 | 2,658 | 95 | 2,700 | 10,693 | 49,074 | 545 |
| 2018 | 14,836 | — | 5,247 | 4,381 | 13.11 | 3,654 | 1,883 | 1,771 | 1,166 | 599 | 62 | 4,466 | 12,288 | 51,596 | 334 |
| 2017 | 11,358 | — | 2,444 | 1,247 | 4.32 | 3,041 | 1,311 | 1,730 | 901 | 12 | 59 | 617 | 7,783 | 6,018 | 289 |
| 2016 | 10,534 | — | 2,247 | 1,500 | 5.21 | 2,789 | 1,465 | 1,324 | 856 | 228 | 39 | 524 | — | 5,441 | 288 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.