KO
Coca-Cola Company (The) · Consumer Staples · Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
$91.99
52w 65.35 – 92.49
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$395.8B
P/E
29.9
P/FCF
74.0
FCF yield
1.4%
ROE
40.7%
Shldr yield
2.4%
div 2.2% + bb 0.2%
What today's price assumes
At $395.8B, the market is pricing in 25.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -2.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $12 · $12 · $15 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 21.1× across 10 years, KO would trade near $36/share (25th–75th percentile: $32–$38); it trades at 53.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+3.7%
Rev 5y
+7.7%
Rev 10y
+1.5%
EPS 5y
+11.2%
EPS 10y
+8.2%
FCF 5y
−9.4%
FCF 10y
−2.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $12.5B | +12.1% | $3.9B | +17.8% | 0.91 | $2.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $11.8B | +2.4% | $2.3B | +3.5% | 0.53 | $3.8B |
| Q3'25 | $12.5B | +5.1% | $3.7B | +29.8% | 0.86 | $5.0B |
| Q2'25 | $12.5B | +1.4% | $3.8B | +58.0% | 0.88 | $3.8B |
| Q1'25 | $11.1B | −1.5% | $3.3B | +4.8% | 0.77 | −$5.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $11.5B | +6.4% | $2.2B | +11.3% | 0.50 | $4.0B |
| Q3'24 | $11.9B | −0.8% | $2.8B | −7.7% | 0.66 | −$1.3B |
| Q2'24 | $12.4B | +3.3% | $2.4B | −5.3% | 0.56 | $3.6B |
| Q1'24 | $11.3B | +2.9% | $3.2B | +2.3% | 0.74 | $528.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $10.8B | +7.2% | $2.0B | −2.9% | 0.45 | $2.7B |
| Q3'23 | $12.0B | +8.0% | $3.1B | +9.3% | 0.71 | $4.3B |
| Q2'23 | $12.0B | +5.7% | $2.5B | +33.7% | 0.59 | $4.5B |
| Q1'23 | $11.0B | +4.7% | $3.1B | +11.7% | 0.72 | $160.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.7% | +7.7% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | −12.4% | −5.5% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | −17.8% | −9.4% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +11.6% | +11.2% | — | — |
| Equity | +10.1% | +10.8% | — | — |
| LT debt | +5.0% | +1.0% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.3% | −0.0% | — | — |
| Stock price | +18.9% | +13.6% | +11.2% | +9.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$168vs $176 in SPY
18.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$189vs $181 in SPY
13.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$289vs $412 in SPY
11.2% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$414vs $813 in SPY
9.9% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$10.26
$141.7B created / $13.8B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
10.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.7%
MC vs 10× OCF
5.29
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
8.0y
SBC / FCF
5.3%
Owner earnings
$5.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.3%
Share count 5y
−0.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
20.1%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$-0.08
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 23.0% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -21.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -4.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 27 checks pass · 59%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- pass
Revenue growth
7.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
11.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-9.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-5.5% vs 7.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/7
- pass
Net margin
27.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
28.7% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
61.6% vs 58.1% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
40.7% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
10.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
11.0% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $7.4B vs NI $13.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
8.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
24% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.31 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$32.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
12% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
180% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.4% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
29.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
25.6% vs -2.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47,941 | 29,544 | 13,762 | 13,107 | 3.04 | 7,408 | 2,112 | 5,296 | 8,779 | 746 | 279 | 10,270 | 42,119 | 32,169 | 4,313 |
| 2024 | 47,061 | 28,737 | 9,992 | 10,631 | 2.46 | 6,805 | 2,064 | 4,741 | 8,359 | 1,795 | 286 | 10,828 | 42,375 | 24,856 | 4,320 |
| 2023 | 45,754 | 27,234 | 11,311 | 10,714 | 2.47 | 11,599 | 1,852 | 9,747 | 7,952 | 2,289 | 254 | 9,366 | 35,547 | 25,941 | 4,339 |
| 2022 | 43,004 | 25,004 | 10,909 | 9,542 | 2.19 | 11,018 | 1,484 | 9,534 | 7,616 | 1,418 | 356 | 9,519 | 36,377 | 24,105 | 4,350 |
| 2021 | 38,655 | 23,298 | 10,308 | 9,771 | 2.25 | 12,625 | 1,367 | 11,258 | 7,252 | 111 | 337 | 9,684 | 38,116 | 22,999 | 4,340 |
| 2020 | 33,014 | 19,581 | 8,997 | 7,747 | 1.79 | 9,844 | 1,177 | 8,667 | 7,047 | 118 | 126 | 6,795 | 40,125 | 19,299 | 4,323 |
| 2019 | 37,266 | 22,647 | 10,086 | 8,920 | 2.07 | 10,471 | 2,054 | 8,417 | 6,845 | 1,103 | 201 | 6,480 | 27,516 | 18,981 | 4,314 |
| 2018 | 34,300 | 21,233 | 9,152 | 6,434 | 1.50 | 7,627 | 1,548 | 6,079 | 6,644 | 1,912 | 225 | 9,077 | 25,376 | 16,981 | 4,299 |
| 2017 | 36,212 | 22,491 | 7,755 | 1,248 | 0.29 | 7,041 | 1,750 | 5,291 | 6,320 | 3,682 | 219 | 6,102 | 31,182 | 17,072 | 4,324 |
| 2016 | 41,863 | 25,398 | 8,657 | 6,527 | 1.49 | 8,792 | 2,262 | 6,530 | 6,043 | 3,681 | 258 | 8,555 | 29,684 | 23,062 | 4,367 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.