KMI
Kinder Morgan · Energy · Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
$33.08
52w 25.60 – 34.81
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$73.7B
P/E
23.5
P/FCF
24.8
FCF yield
4.0%
ROE
9.8%
Shldr yield
3.6%
div 3.6% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $73.7B, the market is pricing in 10.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 7.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $20 · $25 · $32 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.6× across 12 years, KMI would trade near $18/share (25th–75th percentile: $14–$24); it trades at 12.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−5.7%
Rev 5y
+8.5%
Rev 10y
+0.5%
EPS 5y
+93.9%
EPS 10y
+29.9%
FCF 5y
+0.3%
FCF 10y
+7.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $4.1B | +13.6% | $867.0M | +21.3% | 0.39 | $2.0B |
| Q1'26 | $4.5B | +15.3% | $976.0M | +36.1% | 0.44 | $1.5B |
| Q4'25 * | $4.0B | +12.3% | $996.0M | +49.3% | 0.45 | $1.7B |
| Q3'25 | $3.7B | +13.2% | $628.0M | +0.5% | 0.28 | $1.4B |
| Q2'25 | $3.6B | +12.2% | $715.0M | +24.3% | 0.32 | $1.6B |
| Q1'25 | $3.9B | +13.3% | $717.0M | −3.9% | 0.32 | $1.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $3.6B | +0.2% | $667.0M | +12.3% | 0.30 | $1.5B |
| Q3'24 | $3.3B | −7.0% | $625.0M | +17.5% | 0.28 | $1.2B |
| Q2'24 | $3.2B | +3.6% | $575.0M | −1.9% | 0.26 | $1.7B |
| Q1'24 | $3.4B | −1.0% | $746.0M | +9.9% | 0.33 | $1.2B |
| Q4'23 * | $3.6B | −14.2% | $594.0M | −11.3% | 0.26 | $2.3B |
| Q3'23 | $3.5B | −27.7% | $532.0M | −7.6% | 0.24 | $1.3B |
| Q2'23 | $3.1B | −37.9% | $586.0M | −7.7% | 0.26 | $1.6B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −5.7% | +8.5% | +0.5% | +4.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +6.0% | +5.4% | +1.1% | +7.8% |
| Free cash flow | −4.8% | +0.3% | +7.4% | +8.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | +6.9% | +93.9% | +29.9% | — |
| Equity | +0.5% | −0.2% | −1.2% | +9.0% |
| LT debt | +2.7% | −0.9% | −3.2% | +5.5% |
| Diluted shares | −0.5% | −0.4% | +0.1% | — |
| Stock price | +32.4% | +20.6% | +10.4% | +5.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$232vs $192 in SPY
32.4% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$255vs $181 in SPY
20.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$268vs $428 in SPY
10.4% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$236vs $803 in SPY
5.9% vs 14.9%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
9.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.21
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
10.6y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$2.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.0%
Share count 5y
+0.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
258.7%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.68
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
14 of 24 checks pass · 58%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- pass
Revenue growth
8.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
93.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
0.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
5.4% vs 8.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/6
- pass
Net margin
20.1% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
31.1% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
9.8% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
9.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
19.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.9B vs NI $3.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
10.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
0% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.99 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$31.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
0.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
90% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
7 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.0% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
23.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
10.7% vs 7.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15,202 | — | 4,724 | 3,056 | 1.37 | 5,917 | 3,026 | 2,891 | 2,604 | 0 | — | 63 | 30,777 | 31,162 | 2,223 |
| 2024 | 13,483 | — | 4,384 | 2,613 | 1.17 | 5,635 | 2,629 | 3,006 | 2,557 | 7 | — | 88 | 29,881 | 30,531 | 2,220 |
| 2023 | 13,647 | — | 4,263 | 2,391 | 1.06 | 6,491 | 2,317 | 4,174 | 2,529 | 522 | — | 83 | 28,067 | 30,306 | 2,234 |
| 2022 | 18,128 | — | 4,065 | 2,548 | 1.12 | 4,967 | 1,621 | 3,346 | 2,504 | 368 | — | 745 | 28,403 | 30,742 | 2,258 |
| 2021 | 16,154 | — | 2,916 | 1,784 | 0.78 | 5,708 | 1,281 | 4,427 | 2,443 | 0 | — | 1,140 | 30,674 | 30,823 | 2,266 |
| 2020 | 10,097 | — | 1,560 | 119 | 0.05 | 4,550 | 1,707 | 2,843 | 2,362 | 50 | — | 1,184 | 32,131 | 31,436 | 2,263 |
| 2019 | 12,080 | — | 4,873 | 2,190 | 0.96 | 4,748 | 2,270 | 2,478 | 2,163 | 2 | — | 185 | 31,915 | 33,742 | 2,264 |
| 2018 | 13,318 | — | 3,794 | 1,609 | 0.66 | 5,043 | 2,904 | 2,139 | 1,618 | 273 | — | 3,280 | 33,936 | 33,678 | — |
| 2017 | 13,705 | — | 3,529 | 183 | 0.01 | 4,601 | 3,188 | 1,413 | 1,120 | 250 | — | 264 | 35,015 | 33,636 | 2,230 |
| 2016 | 13,058 | — | 3,538 | 708 | 0.25 | 4,758 | 2,882 | 1,876 | 1,118 | 0 | — | 684 | 37,354 | 34,431 | 2,230 |
| 2015 | 14,403 | — | 2,447 | 253 | 0.10 | 5,313 | 3,896 | 1,417 | 4,224 | — | — | 229 | 42,406 | 35,119 | 2,193 |
| 2014 | 16,226 | — | 4,448 | 1,026 | 0.46 | 4,467 | 3,617 | 850 | 1,760 | 94 | 0 | 315 | 40,097 | 34,076 | 2,193 |
| 2013 | 14,070 | — | 3,990 | 1,193 | 0.60 | 4,122 | 3,369 | 753 | 1,622 | 172 | 0 | 598 | 33,887 | 13,093 | 1,998 |
| 2012 | 9,973 | — | 2,593 | 315 | — | 2,808 | 2,022 | 786 | 1,184 | — | 87 | 714 | 32,000 | 13,866 | — |
| 2011 | 7,943 | — | 1,423 | 594 | — | 2,366 | 1,200 | 1,166 | 770 | — | 0 | 411 | 14,356 | 8,568 | — |
| 2010 | 7,852 | — | 1,133 | -41 | — | 1,913 | 1,006 | 907 | 700 | — | 0 | 502 | 13,813 | 8,539 | — |
| 2009 | 7,185 | — | 1,407 | 495 | — | 1,579 | 1,324 | 255 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.