MMarketMath

KLAC

Fast growerQuality: High (95/100)

KLA Corporation · Information Technology · Semiconductor Materials & Equipment

$181.57

52w 83.22 – 307.37

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$237.2B

P/E

49.8

P/FCF

63.8

FCF yield

1.6%

ROE

76.1%

Shldr yield

1.4%

div 0.4% + bb 1.0%

What today's price assumes

At $237.2B, the market is pricing in 23.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 17.9% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $44 · $99 · $142 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 14.0× across 18 years, KLAC would trade near $45/share (25th–75th percentile: $32–$57); it trades at 57.3× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+9.0%

Rev 5y

+14.4%

Rev 10y

+16.4%

EPS 5y

+21.6%

EPS 10y

+23.0%

FCF 5y

+14.0%

FCF 10y

+17.9%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2009–2026, from SEC filings

Revenue

2009: $1.5B
2010: $1.8B
2011: $3.2B
2012: $3.2B
2013: $2.8B
2014: $2.9B
2015: $2.8B
2016: $3.0B
2017: $3.5B
2018: $4.0B
2019: $4.6B
2020: $5.8B
2021: $6.9B
2022: $9.2B
2023: $10.5B
2024: $9.8B
2025: $12.2B
2026: $13.6B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Net income

2009: −$523.4M
2010: $212.3M
2011: $794.5M
2012: $756.0M
2013: $543.1M
2014: $582.8M
2015: $366.2M
2016: $704.4M
2017: $926.1M
2018: $802.3M
2019: $1.2B
2020: $1.2B
2021: $2.1B
2022: $3.3B
2023: $3.4B
2024: $2.8B
2025: $4.1B
2026: $4.8B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Free cash flow

2009: $173.5M
2010: $417.6M
2011: $772.0M
2012: $884.0M
2013: $838.6M
2014: $711.4M
2015: $560.1M
2016: $728.0M
2017: $1.0B
2018: $1.2B
2019: $1.0B
2020: $1.6B
2021: $2.0B
2022: $3.0B
2023: $3.3B
2024: $3.0B
2025: $3.7B
2026: $3.8B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2009: 1.7B
2010: 1.7B
2011: 1.7B
2012: 1.7B
2013: 1.6B
2014: 1.6B
2015: 1.6B
2016: 1.5B
2017: 1.5B
2018: 1.5B
2019: 1.5B
2020: 1.5B
2021: 1.5B
2022: 1.5B
2023: 1.4B
2024: 1.4B
2025: 1.3B
2026: 1.3B
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Margins

-25%0%25%091215182124
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2009: $328.7M
2010: $238.7M
2011: $402.2M
2012: $497.4M
2013: $539.1M
2014: $539.7M
2015: $3.6B
2016: $528.0M
2017: $369.0M
2018: $605.2M
2019: $1.6B
2020: $1.4B
2021: $1.5B
2022: $4.6B
2023: $2.0B
2024: $2.5B
2025: $3.1B
2026: $3.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B091215182124
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q4'23: $2.4B
Q1'24: $2.4B
Q2'24: $2.5B
Q3'24: $2.4B
Q4'24: $2.6B
Q1'25: $2.8B
Q2'25: $3.1B
Q3'25: $3.1B
Q4'25: $3.2B
Q1'26: $3.2B
Q2'26: $3.3B
Q3'26: $3.4B
Q4'26: $3.7B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
25
26
26

Net income by quarter

Q4'23: $684.7M
Q1'24: $741.4M
Q2'24: $582.5M
Q3'24: $601.5M
Q4'24: $836.4M
Q1'25: $945.9M
Q2'25: $824.5M
Q3'25: $1.1B
Q4'25: $1.2B
Q1'26: $1.1B
Q2'26: $1.1B
Q3'26: $1.2B
Q4'26: $1.4B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
25
26
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q4'26 *$3.7B+15.2%$1.4B+13.3%-22.61$906.4M
Q3'26$3.4B+11.5%$1.2B+10.3%9.12$707.5M
Q2'26$3.3B+7.2%$1.1B+39.0%8.68$1.4B
Q1'26$3.2B+13.0%$1.1B+18.5%8.47$1.2B
Q4'25 *$3.2B+23.6%$1.2B+43.8%-18.29$1.2B
Q3'25$3.1B+29.8%$1.1B+80.9%8.16$1.1B
Q2'25$3.1B+23.7%$824.5M+41.5%6.16$849.5M
Q1'25$2.8B+18.5%$945.9M+27.6%7.01$995.2M
Q4'24 *$2.6B+9.1%$836.4M+22.2%-12.09$892.6M
Q3'24$2.4B−3.0%$601.5M−13.8%4.43$910.0M
Q2'24$2.5B−16.7%$582.5M−40.5%4.28$622.2M
Q1'24$2.4B−12.0%$741.4M−27.7%5.41$883.7M
Q4'23 *$2.4B−5.3%$684.7M−15.0%5.03$959.1M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+9.0%+14.4%+16.4%+10.2%
Operating cash flow+4.1%+13.7%+18.5%+11.4%
Free cash flow+4.2%+14.0%+17.9%+11.1%
EPS (diluted)+13.7%+21.6%+23.0%+14.5%
Equity+29.6%+13.5%+24.9%+5.5%
LT debt−0.0%+11.5%+6.8%
Diluted shares−1.0%−2.7%−1.4%−1.5%
Stock price+54.7%+41.1%+40.8%+34.3%

$100, 3 years ago

$370vs $176 in SPY

54.7% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$560vs $181 in SPY

41.1% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$3,067vs $412 in SPY

40.8% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$8,384vs $813 in SPY

34.3% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$13.42

$191.3B created / $14.3B retained

Last 10 years

$12.75

$231.5B created / $18.2B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

33.9%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

1.7%

MC vs 10× OCF

5.80

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.6y

SBC / FCF

8.2%

Owner earnings

$3.5B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

1.4%

Share count 5y

−1.3%

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 28.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 37.5% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

18 of 24 checks pass · 75%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    14.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    21.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    14.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    13.7% vs 14.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

4/5

  • Net margin

    35.6% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    76.1% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    33.9% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    27.7% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $4.1B vs NI $4.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

3/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    28% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    0.93 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $6.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    89% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

0/4

  • FCF yield

    1.6% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    49.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    23.6% vs 17.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    1.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202613,5794,8313.664,1433763,7671,0582,2903101,6505,8876,3501,320
202512,1564,0623.044,0823353,7479052,1502652,0795,8844,6921,338
20249,8122,7622.033,3092773,0317731,7362131,9775,8803,3681,362
202310,4963,3872.493,6703423,3287331,3121711,9285,8912,9201,362
20229,2123,3222.263,3133073,0056393,9681271,5856,6611,4011,472
20216,9192,0781.382,1852321,9535599391121,4353,4233,3781,510
20205,8061,2170.791,7791531,6265228291111,2343,4702,6651,534
20194,5691,1760.771,1531301,0224721,095941,0163,1732,6591,524
20184,0378020.531,229671,162402203631,4042,2371,6211,528
20173,4809260.611,080391,04134425511,1532,6801,3261,529
20162,9847040.4676032728346182451,1083,0586891,523
20152,8143660.23606465603,041603558383,1734211,590
20142,9297725830.3677968711299241616317453,6691,633
20132,8437305430.3391375839266273709853,4821,644
20123,1721,0167560.4694258884234264797513,3161,652
20113,1751,1607940.4882351772167235817112,8611,654
20101,8213142120.1344830418102136865302,2471,680
20091,520-578-523-0.32196221731022271065252,1841,653

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.