MMarketMath

KKR

Fast growerQuality: Medium (46/100)3 red flags

KKR & Co. · Financials · Asset Management & Custody Banks

$107.32

52w 82.67 – 152.10

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$96.3B

P/E

40.5

P/FCF

201.1

FCF yield

0.5%

ROE

7.7%

Shldr yield

0.7%

div 0.7% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $96.3B, the market is pricing in 40.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).

Simple DCF per-share range: $8 · $11 · $14 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+50.6%

Rev 5y

+57.5%

Rev 10y

+37.5%

EPS 5y

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2016: $1.1B
2017: $1.5B
2018: $1.8B
2019: $1.8B
2020: $2.0B
2021: $16.2B
2022: $5.7B
2023: $14.5B
2024: $21.9B
2025: $19.5B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Net income

2016: $309.3M
2017: $1.0B
2018: $1.1B
2019: $2.0B
2020: $2.0B
2021: $4.7B
2022: −$521.7M
2023: $3.7B
2024: $3.1B
2025: $2.4B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Free cash flow

2016: −$1.5B
2017: −$3.6B
2018: −$7.7B
2019: −$5.9B
2020: −$6.0B
2021: −$7.2B
2022: −$5.3B
2023: −$1.5B
2024: $6.6B
2025: $477.8M
−$5.0B$0$5.0B
16
18
20
22
24
No data

Margins

-400%-200%0%1618202224
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2016: $285.4M
2017: $312.0M
2018: $495.5M
2019: $343.6M
2020: $543.5M
2021: $601.1M
2022: $791.0M
2023: $853.1M
2024: $612.1M
2025: $653.3M
$0$250.0M$500.0M$750.0M
16
18
20
22
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B1618202224
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $3.6B
Q3'23: $3.3B
Q4'23: $4.4B
Q1'24: $9.7B
Q2'24: $4.2B
Q3'24: $4.8B
Q4'24: $3.3B
Q1'25: $3.1B
Q2'25: $5.1B
Q3'25: $5.5B
Q4'25: $5.7B
Q1'26: $4.3B
Q2'26: $5.7B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $861.7M
Q3'23: $1.5B
Q4'23: $1.0B
Q1'24: $682.2M
Q2'24: $667.9M
Q3'24: $600.5M
Q4'24: $1.1B
Q1'25: −$185.9M
Q2'25: $510.1M
Q3'25: $900.4M
Q4'25: $1.1B
Q1'26: $405.2M
Q2'26: $700.5M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$5.7B+12.5%$700.5M+37.3%$3.3B
Q1'26$4.3B+38.8%$405.2M$1.7B
Q4'25 *$5.7B+76.1%$1.1B+1.8%−$4.9B
Q3'25$5.5B+15.3%$900.4M+49.9%$2.4B
Q2'25$5.1B+22.0%$510.1M−23.6%$438.8M
Q1'25$3.1B−67.8%−$185.9M−127.3%$2.5B
Q4'24 *$3.3B−26.4%$1.1B+8.2%−$111.7M
Q3'24$4.8B+44.5%$600.5M−59.7%$1.9B
Q2'24$4.2B+15.0%$667.9M−22.5%$3.4B
Q1'24$9.7B+208.8%$682.2M+100.7%$1.5B
Q4'23 *$4.4B+75.4%$1.0B+652.0%$1.1B
Q3'23$3.3B+78.6%$1.5B+2887.0%$2.0B
Q2'23$3.6B+1021.4%$861.7M−$2.6B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+50.6%+57.5%
Operating cash flow
Free cash flow
EPS (diluted)
Equity+18.0%+17.6%
LT debt+17.7%+14.6%
Diluted shares
Stock price+20.3%+11.7%+23.7%+19.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$174vs $176 in SPY

20.3% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$174vs $181 in SPY

11.7% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$838vs $412 in SPY

23.7% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,383vs $813 in SPY

19.1% vs 15.0%/yr

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

1.5%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

0.6%

MC vs 10× OCF

20.11

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

151.1%

Owner earnings

−$244.3M

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-0.3%

Share count 5y

per year; negative = buybacks

Checklist

8 of 19 checks pass · 42%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

2/4

  • Revenue growth

    57.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail
  • FCF consistently positive

    2 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail
  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    na

Profitability

1/5

  • Net margin

    12.2% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    7.7% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    1.5% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    2.5% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $477.8M vs NI $2.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

4/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $30.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

1/3

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    na
  • Stock comp restrained

    151% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    fail
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    137% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    fail
  • Repurchases are a habit

    7 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

0/3

  • FCF yield

    0.5% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    40.5 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    0.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Revenue declining

Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.

Heavy stock compensation

Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.

Distributions exceed FCF

Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202519,4642,370478478650372217,15230,903
202421,8793,0766,6506,650612074615,36823,652
202314,4993,732-1,494-1,49456329061820,80822,859
20225,704-522-5,279-5,27944434773013,38518,808
202116,2264,732-7,177-7,17733127053010,52636,91417,582
20202,0072,003-5,954-5,9542972463275,36333,50113,717
20191,7902,005-5,682195-5,877271722982,34727,15210,807
20181,8411,131-7,606103-7,7093221733321,75122,6398,650
20171,5421,018-3,53297-3,62931203351,87721,4357,186
20161,105309-1,44163-1,5042852652,50918,663

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.