MMarketMath

JPM

StalwartQuality: Medium (63/100)1 red flag

JPMorgan Chase · Financials · Diversified Banks

$356.39

52w 279.10 – 366.50

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$947.4B

P/E

16.9

P/FCF

FCF yield

-15.3%

ROE

15.7%

Shldr yield

5.0%

div 1.7% + bb 3.3%

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 4.2× across 13 years, JPM would trade near $20/share (25th–75th percentile: $11–$54); it trades at 73.0× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+12.3%

Rev 5y

+8.7%

Rev 10y

+6.9%

EPS 5y

+17.7%

EPS 10y

+12.8%

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $71.4B
2008: $67.3B
2009: $100.4B
2010: $102.7B
2011: $97.2B
2012: $97.0B
2013: $97.4B
2014: $95.1B
2015: $93.5B
2016: $96.6B
2017: $100.7B
2018: $108.8B
2019: $115.7B
2020: $120.0B
2021: $121.6B
2022: $128.7B
2023: $158.1B
2024: $177.6B
2025: $182.4B
$0$50.0B$100.0B$150.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $15.4B
2008: $5.6B
2009: $11.7B
2010: $17.4B
2011: $19.0B
2012: $21.3B
2013: $17.9B
2014: $21.7B
2015: $24.4B
2016: $24.7B
2017: $24.4B
2018: $32.5B
2019: $36.4B
2020: $29.1B
2021: $48.3B
2022: $37.7B
2023: $49.6B
2024: $58.5B
2025: $57.0B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: −$110.6B
2008: $23.9B
2009: $122.8B
2010: −$3.8B
2011: $95.9B
2012: $25.1B
2013: $108.0B
2014: $36.6B
2015: $73.5B
2016: $21.9B
2017: −$10.8B
2018: $15.6B
2019: $4.1B
2020: −$79.9B
2021: $78.1B
2022: $107.1B
2023: $13.0B
2024: −$42.0B
2025: −$147.8B
−$100.0B$0$100.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 3.4B
2008: 3.5B
2009: 3.9B
2010: 4.0B
2011: 3.9B
2012: 3.8B
2013: 3.8B
2014: 3.8B
2015: 3.8B
2016: 3.7B
2017: 3.6B
2018: 3.4B
2019: 3.2B
2020: 3.1B
2021: 3.0B
2022: 3.0B
2023: 2.9B
2024: 2.9B
2025: 2.8B
01.0B2.0B3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-100%0%100%07101316192225
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $13.2B
2008: $5.9B
2009: $3.4B
2010: $4.5B
2011: $3.9B
2012: $5.2B
2013: $6.1B
2014: $7.0B
2015: $13.5B
2016: $17.6B
2017: $24.4B
2018: $30.1B
2019: $36.3B
2020: $19.2B
2021: $31.3B
2022: $16.7B
2023: $23.3B
2024: $33.6B
2025: $48.2B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$400.0B$600.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $41.3B
Q3'23: $39.9B
Q4'23: $38.6B
Q1'24: $41.9B
Q2'24: $50.2B
Q3'24: $42.7B
Q4'24: $42.8B
Q1'25: $45.3B
Q2'25: $44.9B
Q3'25: $46.4B
Q4'25: $45.8B
Q1'26: $49.8B
Q2'26: $57.3B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $14.5B
Q3'23: $13.2B
Q4'23: $9.3B
Q1'24: $13.4B
Q2'24: $18.1B
Q3'24: $12.9B
Q4'24: $14.0B
Q1'25: $14.6B
Q2'25: $15.0B
Q3'25: $14.4B
Q4'25: $13.0B
Q1'26: $16.5B
Q2'26: $21.2B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$57.3B+27.7%$21.2B+41.2%7.70−$25.3B
Q1'26$49.8B+10.0%$16.5B+12.6%5.94−$211.8B
Q4'25 *$45.8B+7.1%$13.0B−7.0%4.64$119.7B
Q3'25$46.4B+8.8%$14.4B+11.6%5.07−$45.2B
Q2'25$44.9B−10.5%$15.0B−17.4%5.24$29.5B
Q1'25$45.3B+8.1%$14.6B+9.1%5.07−$251.8B
Q4'24 *$42.8B+10.9%$14.0B+50.5%4.82$147.8B
Q3'24$42.7B+7.0%$12.9B−1.9%4.37−$74.1B
Q2'24$50.2B+21.5%$18.1B+25.4%6.12$38.5B
Q1'24$41.9B+9.3%$13.4B+6.3%4.44−$154.2B
Q4'23 *$38.6B+11.7%$9.3B−15.5%3.05$60.2B
Q3'23$39.9B+21.9%$13.2B+35.1%4.33$45.1B
Q2'23$41.3B+34.5%$14.5B+67.3%4.75$18.9B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+12.3%+8.7%+6.9%+3.9%
Operating cash flow+33.4%−3.6%−19.1%−4.0%
Free cash flow+33.4%−3.6%−19.1%−4.0%
EPS (diluted)+18.3%+17.7%+12.8%+11.4%
Equity+7.4%+5.3%+3.9%+4.9%
LT debt+13.7%+9.1%+4.2%+3.2%
Diluted shares−2.2%−2.1%−3.0%−2.4%
Stock price+37.5%+20.4%+21.2%+19.4%

$100, 3 years ago

$260vs $176 in SPY

37.5% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$253vs $181 in SPY

20.4% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$687vs $412 in SPY

21.2% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,421vs $813 in SPY

19.4% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.76

$496.2B created / $179.8B retained

Last 10 years

$2.45

$672.7B created / $274.4B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

-18.5%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

MC vs 10× OCF

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

Owner earnings

−$151.4B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-15.7%

Share count 5y

−1.2%

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 5020.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -16.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -809.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

13 of 19 checks pass · 68%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

4/6

  • Revenue growth

    8.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    17.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    6 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    -3.6% vs 8.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

2/5

  • Net margin

    31.3% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    15.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    -18.5% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    -81.0% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF −$147.8B vs NI $57.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

3/3

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    na
  • Cash cushion

    79% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    1.20 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $362.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

2/2

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    na
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/3

  • FCF yield

    -15.3% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    16.9 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    5.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
2025182,44757,04820.02-147,782-147,78216,62531,5913,614343,338435,206362,4382,782
2024177,55658,47119.75-42,012-42,01214,78318,8303,504469,317401,418344,7582,879
2023158,10449,55216.2312,97412,97413,4639,8243,117624,151391,825327,8782,943
2022128,69537,67612.09107,119107,11913,5623,1622,794567,234295,865292,3322,970
2021121,64948,33415.3678,08478,08412,85818,4082,929740,834301,005294,1273,027
2020119,95129,1318.88-79,910-79,91012,6906,5172,451527,609281,685279,3543,087
2019115,72036,43110.724,0924,09212,34324,0012,256263,631291,498261,3303,230
2018108,78332,4749.0015,61415,61410,10919,9832,322278,793282,031256,5153,414
2017100,70524,4416.31-10,827-10,8278,99315,4102,070431,304284,080255,6933,577
201696,56924,7336.1921,88421,8848,4769,0821,940391,154295,245254,1903,690
201593,54324,4426.0073,46673,4667,8735,6161,987361,683288,651247,5733,774
201495,11221,7455.2936,59336,5936,9902,190276,379231,7273,798
201397,36717,8864.34107,953107,9536,0562,219267,889211,1783,815
201297,03121,2845.2025,07925,0795,1942,545249,024204,0693,822
201197,23418,9764.4895,93295,9323,8952,675256,775183,5733,920
2010102,69417,3703.96-3,752-3,7521,4862,9993,251270,653176,1063,977
2009100,43411,7282.26122,797122,7973,42203,355266,318160,8453,880
200867,2525,6051.3523,93023,9305,91102,637270,683166,8843,522
200771,37215,3654.33-110,560-110,5605,0518,1782,025123,2213,445

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.