JNJ
Johnson & Johnson · Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
$273.04
52w 173.33 – 276.47
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$658.0B
P/E
24.4
P/FCF
33.2
FCF yield
3.0%
ROE
32.9%
Shldr yield
2.8%
div 1.9% + bb 0.9%
What today's price assumes
At $658.0B, the market is pricing in 14.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 1.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $102 · $102 · $127 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 15.3× across 8 years, JNJ would trade near $155/share (25th–75th percentile: $145–$171); it trades at 26.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+6.2%
Rev 5y
+2.3%
Rev 10y
+2.6%
EPS 5y
+11.9%
EPS 10y
+48.4%
FCF 5y
−0.2%
FCF 10y
+1.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2017–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $25.3B | +6.6% | $5.5B | −0.1% | 2.27 | $8.6B |
| Q1'26 | $24.1B | +9.9% | $5.2B | −52.4% | 2.14 | $2.5B |
| Q4'25 * | $24.6B | +9.1% | $5.1B | +49.1% | 2.08 | $7.3B |
| Q3'25 | $24.0B | +6.8% | $5.2B | +91.2% | 2.12 | $9.2B |
| Q2'25 | $23.7B | +5.8% | $5.5B | +18.2% | 2.29 | $3.9B |
| Q1'25 | $21.9B | +2.4% | $11.0B | +237.9% | 4.54 | $4.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $22.5B | +5.3% | $3.4B | −15.3% | 1.41 | $7.0B |
| Q3'24 | $22.5B | +5.2% | $2.7B | −89.6% | 1.11 | $8.0B |
| Q2'24 | $22.4B | +4.3% | $4.7B | −8.9% | 1.93 | $5.6B |
| Q1'24 | $21.4B | +2.3% | $3.3B | — | 1.34 | $3.7B |
| Q4'23 | $21.4B | +7.3% | $4.0B | +15.0% | 1.67 | $7.9B |
| Q3'23 | $21.4B | +6.8% | $26.0B | +483.8% | 10.21 | $7.5B |
| Q2'23 | $21.5B | +6.5% | $5.1B | +6.9% | 1.96 | $4.2B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.2% | +2.3% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +1.6% | +0.8% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | −0.1% | −0.2% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +12.2% | +11.9% | — | — |
| Equity | +3.3% | +5.4% | — | — |
| LT debt | +9.6% | +6.9% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −3.1% | −1.6% | — | — |
| Stock price | +22.3% | +12.5% | +11.6% | +13.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$183vs $176 in SPY
22.3% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$180vs $181 in SPY
12.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$299vs $412 in SPY
11.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$632vs $813 in SPY
13.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$3.92
$212.2B created / $54.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
20.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.66
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.0y
SBC / FCF
6.9%
Owner earnings
$18.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.8%
Share count 5y
−1.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
24.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.45
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (6y): reinvested 27.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 3.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 0.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 25 checks pass · 72%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- fail
Revenue growth
2.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
11.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-0.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 7 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
8 of 8 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 8 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
0.8% vs 2.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/6
- pass
Net margin
28.5% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- fail
Gross margin stable or rising
67.9% vs 70.3% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
32.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
20.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
20.9% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $24.5B vs NI $26.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
50% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.48 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$81.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
7% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
93% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
8 of 8 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.0% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
24.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
14.6% vs 1.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 94,193 | 63,937 | — | 26,804 | 11.03 | 24,530 | 4,832 | 19,698 | 12,381 | 5,953 | 1,354 | 19,709 | 39,438 | 81,544 | 2,429 |
| 2024 | 88,821 | 61,350 | — | 14,066 | 5.79 | 24,266 | 4,424 | 19,842 | 11,823 | 2,432 | 1,176 | 24,105 | 30,651 | 71,490 | 2,429 |
| 2023 | 85,159 | 58,606 | — | 35,153 | 13.72 | 22,791 | 4,543 | 18,248 | 11,770 | 5,054 | 1,162 | 21,859 | 25,881 | 68,774 | 2,560 |
| 2022 | 78,740 | 55,338 | — | 20,878 | 7.81 | 23,410 | 3,652 | 19,758 | 11,032 | 3,456 | 1,135 | 14,487 | 29,985 | 74,023 | 2,674 |
| 2021 | 82,584 | 54,157 | — | 14,714 | 5.51 | 23,536 | 3,347 | 20,189 | 10,481 | 3,221 | 1,005 | 13,985 | 32,635 | 63,278 | 2,671 |
| 2019 | 82,059 | 54,503 | — | 15,119 | 5.63 | 23,416 | 3,498 | 19,918 | 9,917 | 6,746 | 977 | 17,305 | 26,494 | 59,471 | 2,684 |
| 2018 | 81,581 | 54,490 | — | 15,297 | 5.61 | 22,201 | 3,670 | 18,531 | 9,494 | 5,868 | 978 | 18,107 | 27,684 | 59,752 | 2,729 |
| 2017 | 76,450 | 51,011 | — | 1,300 | 0.47 | 21,056 | 3,279 | 17,777 | 8,943 | 6,358 | 962 | 17,824 | 30,675 | 60,160 | 2,745 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.