JCI
Johnson Controls · Industrials · Building Products
$155.41
52w 104.49 – 160.41
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$94.8B
P/E
29.4
P/FCF
45.7
FCF yield
2.2%
ROE
25.5%
Shldr yield
7.2%
div 1.0% + bb 6.2%
What today's price assumes
At $94.8B, the market is pricing in 19.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 16.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $53 · $119 · $164 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 16.1× across 18 years, JCI would trade near $67/share (25th–75th percentile: $47–$79); it trades at 37.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+4.6%
Rev 5y
+1.1%
Rev 10y
+3.3%
EPS 5y
+43.0%
EPS 10y
+7.9%
FCF 5y
+0.8%
FCF 10y
+16.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.1B | +8.2% | $613.0M | +28.2% | 1.00 | — |
| Q1'26 | $5.8B | +6.8% | $524.0M | +25.1% | 0.85 | — |
| Q4'25 * | $6.4B | +3.1% | $1.7B | +167.5% | 2.61 | — |
| Q3'25 | $6.1B | +2.6% | $701.0M | −28.1% | 1.07 | — |
| Q2'25 | $5.7B | +1.4% | $478.0M | — | 0.72 | — |
| Q1'25 | $5.4B | +4.2% | $419.0M | +12.0% | 0.63 | — |
| Q4'24 * | $6.2B | +155.6% | $633.0M | +15.3% | 0.93 | $996.0M |
| Q3'24 | $5.9B | −17.3% | $975.0M | −7.1% | 1.45 | $1.0B |
| Q2'24 | $5.6B | −16.3% | −$277.0M | −308.3% | -0.41 | −$203.0M |
| Q1'24 | $5.2B | −14.2% | $374.0M | +216.9% | 0.55 | −$246.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $2.4B | +18.5% | $549.0M | −27.9% | 0.80 | $1.0B |
| Q3'23 | $7.1B | +7.8% | $1.0B | +176.8% | 1.53 | $813.0M |
| Q2'23 | $6.7B | +9.6% | $133.0M | +1109.1% | 0.19 | $314.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.6% | +1.1% | +3.3% | +5.2% |
| Operating cash flow | +27.3% | +0.6% | +4.8% | +7.4% |
| Free cash flow | +41.4% | +0.8% | +16.4% | +9.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | +31.9% | +43.0% | +7.9% | +5.3% |
| Equity | −7.4% | −5.8% | +2.3% | −0.6% |
| LT debt | +7.4% | +4.1% | +4.8% | +5.4% |
| Diluted shares | −2.2% | −2.8% | −0.1% | +2.0% |
| Stock price | +49.0% | +18.3% | +16.9% | +16.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$330vs $192 in SPY
49.0% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$232vs $181 in SPY
18.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$478vs $428 in SPY
16.9% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,005vs $803 in SPY
16.6% vs 14.9%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$8.51
$45.8B created / $5.4B retained
Last 10 years
$5.49
$56.6B created / $10.3B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
11.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.79
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
4.3y
SBC / FCF
6.6%
Owner earnings
$2.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.0%
Share count 5y
+1.6%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
9.3%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$-0.68
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
12 of 25 checks pass · 48%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- fail
Revenue growth
1.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
43.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
0.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
0.6% vs 1.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/6
- pass
Net margin
13.9% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
36.4% vs 34.4% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
25.5% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
11.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
9.0% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.6B vs NI $3.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
4.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
4% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.71 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$12.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
7% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
329% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
29.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
19.0% vs 16.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
7.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23,596 | 8,592 | — | 3,291 | 5.03 | 2,554 | 434 | 2,120 | 976 | 5,991 | 140 | 379 | 9,195 | 12,927 | 654 |
| 2024 | 22,952 | 8,077 | — | 1,705 | 2.52 | 1,568 | 494 | 1,074 | 1,000 | 1,246 | 107 | 606 | 8,568 | 16,098 | 676 |
| 2023 | 22,331 | 7,804 | — | 1,849 | 2.69 | 1,856 | 446 | 1,410 | 980 | 625 | 107 | 828 | 8,462 | 16,545 | 687 |
| 2022 | 20,637 | 7,090 | — | 1,532 | 2.19 | 1,237 | 487 | 750 | 916 | 1,441 | 98 | 2,029 | 7,426 | 16,268 | 700 |
| 2021 | 23,668 | 8,059 | — | 1,637 | 2.27 | 2,551 | 552 | 1,999 | 762 | 1,307 | 76 | 1,336 | 7,506 | 17,562 | 721 |
| 2020 | 22,317 | 7,411 | — | 631 | 0.84 | 2,479 | 443 | 2,036 | 790 | 2,204 | 74 | 1,951 | 7,526 | 17,447 | 754 |
| 2019 | 23,968 | 7,693 | — | 5,674 | 6.49 | 1,743 | 586 | 1,157 | 920 | 5,983 | 95 | 2,805 | 6,708 | 19,766 | 874 |
| 2018 | 23,400 | 7,667 | — | 2,162 | 2.32 | 1,520 | 645 | 875 | 954 | 300 | 106 | 185 | 9,623 | 21,164 | 932 |
| 2017 | 22,835 | 7,530 | — | 1,611 | 1.71 | 371 | 760 | -389 | 702 | 651 | 134 | 301 | 11,964 | 20,447 | 945 |
| 2016 | 20,837 | 5,654 | — | -868 | -1.29 | 1,908 | 1,249 | 659 | 915 | 501 | 142 | 579 | 11,053 | 24,118 | 673 |
| 2015 | 17,100 | 4,531 | — | 1,563 | 2.36 | 1,600 | 1,135 | 465 | 657 | 1,362 | 90 | 553 | 5,745 | 10,335 | 662 |
| 2014 | 38,749 | 6,305 | — | 1,215 | 1.80 | 2,395 | 1,199 | 1,196 | 568 | 1,249 | 82 | 364 | — | 11,270 | 675 |
| 2013 | 10,058 | — | 712 | 536 | 1.14 | 701 | 269 | 432 | 288 | 300 | 63 | 563 | 1,463 | 5,098 | 472 |
| 2012 | 9,892 | — | 578 | 472 | 1.02 | 556 | 295 | 261 | 461 | 500 | 140 | 844 | 1,491 | 4,994 | 463 |
| 2011 | 10,557 | — | 982 | 1,719 | 3.59 | 661 | 371 | 290 | 458 | 1,300 | 0 | 844 | 4,106 | 14,149 | 479 |
| 2010 | 11,020 | — | 615 | 1,130 | 2.31 | 871 | 351 | 520 | 416 | 900 | 120 | 844 | 4,188 | 14,084 | 488 |
| 2009 | 16,882 | — | -1,506 | -1,798 | -3.80 | 2,387 | 702 | 1,685 | 388 | — | 99 | 2,115 | 4,274 | 12,941 | 473 |
| 2008 | 19,733 | — | 1,896 | 1,553 | 3.19 | -912 | 722 | -1,634 | 292 | 192 | 104 | 1,519 | 3,709 | 15,494 | 488 |
| 2007 | 18,477 | — | -1,732 | -1,742 | -3.52 | 1,814 | 666 | 1,148 | 791 | — | — | 1,894 | — | 15,624 | 495 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.