ISRG
Intuitive Surgical · Health Care · Health Care Equipment
$373.57
52w 328.57 – 603.88
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$132.0B
P/E
46.2
P/FCF
53.0
FCF yield
1.9%
ROE
16.0%
Shldr yield
1.7%
div 0.0% + bb 1.7%
What today's price assumes
At $132.0B, the market is pricing in 21.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 13.1% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $107 · $210 · $262 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 41.8× across 19 years, ISRG would trade near $359/share (25th–75th percentile: $228–$485); it trades at 43.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+17.4%
Rev 5y
+18.2%
Rev 10y
+15.5%
EPS 5y
+21.8%
EPS 10y
+16.4%
FCF 5y
+16.9%
FCF 10y
+13.1%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $2.9B | +18.5% | $818.1M | +24.3% | 2.29 | $1.1B |
| Q1'26 | $2.8B | +23.0% | $821.5M | +17.6% | 2.28 | $911.9M |
| Q4'25 * | $2.9B | +18.8% | $794.8M | +15.9% | 2.19 | $892.5M |
| Q3'25 | $2.5B | +22.9% | $704.4M | +24.7% | 1.95 | $841.0M |
| Q2'25 | $2.4B | +21.4% | $658.4M | +25.0% | 1.81 | $715.4M |
| Q1'25 | $2.3B | +19.2% | $698.4M | +28.2% | 1.92 | $581.6M |
| Q4'24 * | $2.4B | +25.2% | $685.7M | +13.1% | 1.89 | $822.6M |
| Q3'24 | $2.0B | +16.9% | $565.1M | +35.9% | 1.56 | $706.5M |
| Q2'24 | $2.0B | +14.5% | $526.9M | +25.2% | 1.46 | $620.5M |
| Q1'24 | $1.9B | +11.5% | $544.9M | +53.4% | 1.51 | $265.4M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.9B | +16.5% | $606.2M | +86.6% | 1.69 | $228.3M |
| Q3'23 | $1.7B | +12.0% | $415.7M | +28.3% | 1.16 | $548.4M |
| Q2'23 | $1.8B | +15.4% | $420.8M | +36.7% | 1.18 | $665.7M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +17.4% | +18.2% | +15.5% | +14.0% |
| Operating cash flow | +26.7% | +15.3% | +14.2% | +12.1% |
| Free cash flow | +37.5% | +16.9% | +13.1% | +12.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | +29.2% | +21.8% | +16.4% | +14.4% |
| Equity | +17.3% | +12.9% | +15.2% | +15.6% |
| LT debt | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.6% | −0.1% |
| Stock price | +6.1% | +1.2% | +17.2% | +15.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$119vs $176 in SPY
6.1% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$106vs $181 in SPY
1.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$490vs $412 in SPY
17.2% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$882vs $813 in SPY
15.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$9.29
$92.9B created / $10.0B retained
Last 10 years
$10.83
$162.3B created / $15.0B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
17.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.35
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
31.6%
Owner earnings
$1.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.3%
Share count 5y
+0.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
53.1%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.66
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 58.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 24.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 14.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
20 of 26 checks pass · 77%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
18.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
21.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
16.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
15.3% vs 18.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
28.4% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
29.3% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
66.0% vs 67.4% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
16.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
17.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
24.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.0B vs NI $2.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
— · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$17.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
32% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
92% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
7 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.9% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
46.2 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
21.0% vs 13.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10,065 | 6,642 | 2,946 | 2,856 | 7.87 | 3,031 | 540 | 2,491 | — | 2,295 | 788 | 3,368 | — | 17,824 | 363 |
| 2024 | 8,352 | 5,634 | 2,349 | 2,323 | 6.42 | 2,415 | 1,111 | 1,304 | — | 0 | 677 | 2,027 | — | 16,434 | 362 |
| 2023 | 7,124 | 4,730 | 1,767 | 1,798 | 5.03 | 1,814 | 1,064 | 750 | — | 416 | 593 | 2,750 | — | 13,308 | 357 |
| 2022 | 6,222 | 4,196 | 1,577 | 1,322 | 3.65 | 1,491 | 532 | 958 | — | 2,607 | 513 | 1,581 | — | 11,042 | 362 |
| 2021 | 5,710 | 3,959 | 1,821 | 1,705 | 4.66 | 2,089 | 340 | 1,750 | — | 0 | 449 | 1,291 | — | 11,901 | 366 |
| 2020 | 4,358 | 2,861 | 1,050 | 1,061 | 2.94 | 1,485 | 342 | 1,143 | — | 134 | 395 | 1,623 | — | 9,732 | 361 |
| 2019 | 4,479 | 3,110 | 1,375 | 1,379 | 3.85 | 1,598 | 426 | 1,173 | — | 270 | 336 | 1,168 | — | 8,264 | 358 |
| 2018 | 3,724 | 2,604 | 1,199 | 1,128 | 3.15 | 1,170 | 187 | 982 | — | 0 | 261 | 858 | — | 6,679 | 358 |
| 2017 | 3,138 | 2,202 | 1,063 | 671 | 1.91 | 1,144 | 191 | 953 | — | 2,274 | 209 | 648 | — | 4,779 | 351 |
| 2016 | 2,707 | 1,893 | 950 | 738 | 2.08 | 1,087 | 54 | 1,033 | — | 43 | 178 | 1,037 | — | 5,778 | 356 |
| 2015 | 2,384 | 1,578 | 740 | 589 | 1.72 | 806 | 81 | 725 | — | 184 | 168 | 715 | — | 4,320 | 343 |
| 2014 | 2,132 | 1,414 | 545 | 419 | 1.22 | 665 | 106 | 560 | — | 1,000 | 169 | 600 | — | 3,379 | 343 |
| 2013 | 2,265 | 1,594 | 853 | 671 | 1.84 | 880 | 105 | 775 | — | 1,109 | 169 | 782 | — | 3,501 | 365 |
| 2012 | 2,179 | 1,570 | 878 | 657 | 1.76 | 814 | 114 | 700 | — | 238 | 153 | 554 | — | 3,580 | 374 |
| 2011 | 1,757 | 1,274 | 695 | 495 | 1.35 | 678 | 83 | 595 | — | 332 | 136 | 466 | — | 2,646 | 366 |
| 2010 | 1,413 | 1,030 | 555 | 382 | 1.04 | 546 | 96 | 450 | — | 199 | 118 | 280 | — | 2,037 | 367 |
| 2009 | 1,052 | 751 | 377 | 233 | 0.65 | 392 | 53 | 339 | — | 150 | 97 | 221 | — | 1,537 | 357 |
| 2008 | 875 | 621 | 311 | 204 | 0.56 | 278 | 106 | 172 | — | 0 | 77 | 195 | — | 1,267 | 363 |
| 2007 | 601 | 414 | 207 | 145 | 0.41 | 206 | 24 | 182 | — | 0 | 36 | 123 | — | 889 | 355 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.