MMarketMath

INTU

Fast growerQuality: High (85/100)1 red flag

Intuit · Information Technology · Application Software

$369.92

52w 252.84 – 705.08

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$101.2B

P/E

24.8

P/FCF

15.7

FCF yield

6.4%

ROE

19.6%

Shldr yield

4.1%

div 1.2% + bb 2.9%

What today's price assumes

At $101.2B, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 15.5% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $341 · $765 · $990 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 20.1× across 18 years, INTU would trade near $457/share (25th–75th percentile: $292–$691); it trades at 16.3× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+14.0%

Rev 5y

+19.7%

Rev 10y

+16.2%

EPS 5y

+14.6%

EPS 10y

+26.7%

FCF 5y

+21.1%

FCF 10y

+15.5%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2008: $3.0B
2009: $3.1B
2010: $3.4B
2011: $3.4B
2012: $3.8B
2013: $3.9B
2014: $4.2B
2015: $4.2B
2016: $4.7B
2017: $5.2B
2018: $6.0B
2019: $6.8B
2020: $7.7B
2021: $9.6B
2022: $12.7B
2023: $14.4B
2024: $16.3B
2025: $18.8B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Net income

2008: $477.0M
2009: $447.0M
2010: $574.0M
2011: $634.0M
2012: $792.0M
2013: $858.0M
2014: $907.0M
2015: $365.0M
2016: $979.0M
2017: $985.0M
2018: $1.3B
2019: $1.6B
2020: $1.8B
2021: $2.1B
2022: $2.1B
2023: $2.4B
2024: $3.0B
2025: $3.9B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Free cash flow

2008: $568.0M
2009: $681.0M
2010: $924.0M
2011: $899.0M
2012: $1.1B
2013: $1.2B
2014: $1.3B
2015: $1.4B
2016: $1.0B
2017: $1.5B
2018: $2.1B
2019: $2.2B
2020: $2.4B
2021: $3.2B
2022: $3.7B
2023: $4.8B
2024: $4.7B
2025: $6.1B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 339.0M
2009: 330.0M
2010: 325.0M
2011: 317.0M
2012: 305.0M
2013: 303.0M
2014: 291.0M
2015: 286.0M
2016: 265.0M
2017: 261.0M
2018: 261.0M
2019: 264.0M
2020: 264.0M
2021: 273.0M
2022: 284.0M
2023: 283.0M
2024: 284.0M
2025: 283.0M
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
08
11
14
17
20
23

Margins

10%20%30%081114172023
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2008: $800.0M
2009: $300.0M
2010: $900.0M
2011: $1.4B
2012: $1.1B
2013: $495.0M
2014: $1.8B
2015: $1.5B
2016: $2.6B
2017: $1.2B
2018: $679.0M
2019: $1.1B
2020: $884.0M
2021: $1.7B
2022: $2.6B
2023: $2.9B
2024: $3.0B
2025: $4.0B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B081114172023
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q3'23: $6.0B
Q4'23: $2.7B
Q1'24: $3.0B
Q2'24: $3.4B
Q3'24: $6.7B
Q4'24: $3.2B
Q1'25: $3.3B
Q2'25: $4.0B
Q3'25: $7.8B
Q4'25: $3.8B
Q1'26: $3.9B
Q2'26: $4.7B
Q3'26: $8.6B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
23
24
25
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q3'23: $2.1B
Q4'23: $89.0M
Q1'24: $241.0M
Q2'24: $353.0M
Q3'24: $2.4B
Q4'24: −$20.0M
Q1'25: $197.0M
Q2'25: $471.0M
Q3'25: $2.8B
Q4'25: $381.0M
Q1'26: $446.0M
Q2'26: $693.0M
Q3'26: $3.1B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
25
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q3'26$8.6B+10.4%$3.1B+8.7%11.09$5.3B
Q2'26$4.7B+17.4%$693.0M+47.1%2.48$1.6B
Q1'26$3.9B+18.3%$446.0M+126.4%1.59$637.0M
Q4'25 *$3.8B+20.3%$381.0M—1.28$381.0M
Q3'25$7.8B+15.1%$2.8B+18.0%10.02$4.4B
Q2'25$4.0B+17.0%$471.0M+33.4%1.67$1.1B
Q1'25$3.3B+10.2%$197.0M−18.3%0.70$362.0M
Q4'24 *$3.2B+17.4%−$20.0M−122.5%-0.09$417.0M
Q3'24$6.7B+11.9%$2.4B+14.5%8.42$4.0B
Q2'24$3.4B+11.3%$353.0M+110.1%1.25$613.0M
Q1'24$3.0B+14.7%$241.0M+502.5%0.85−$97.0M
Q4'23 *$2.7B+12.3%$89.0M—0.30$842.0M
Q3'23$6.0B+6.9%$2.1B+16.3%7.38$3.6B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+14.0%+19.7%+16.2%+12.1%
Operating cash flow+16.9%+20.8%+14.6%+13.0%
Free cash flow+17.9%+21.1%+15.5%+13.4%
EPS (diluted)+23.4%+14.6%+26.7%+14.6%
Equity+6.2%+31.0%+23.8%+13.8%
LT debt−2.4%+24.1%+28.2%+12.7%
Diluted shares−0.1%+1.4%−0.1%−0.9%
Stock price−11.2%−7.5%+13.6%+15.4%

$100, 3 years ago

$70vs $176 in SPY

-11.2% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$68vs $181 in SPY

-7.5% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$359vs $412 in SPY

13.6% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$858vs $813 in SPY

15.4% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$11.27

$99.3B created / $8.8B retained

Last 10 years

$12.31

$164.3B created / $13.3B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

24.2%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

6.3%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.54

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.0y

SBC / FCF

32.1%

Owner earnings

$4.2B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

4.3%

Share count 5y

−1.1%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

5.1%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.02

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 95.0% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 17.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 16.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

24 of 26 checks pass · 92%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    19.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    14.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    21.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    20.8% vs 19.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    20.5% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    26.1% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    19.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    24.2% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    32.5% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $6.2B vs NI $3.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    48% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.30 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $19.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    5% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    32% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    fail

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    65% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    6.4% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    24.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    4.4% vs 15.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    4.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy stock compensation

Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202518,831—4,9233,86913.676,207846,1231,1892,7721,9682,8845,97319,710283
202416,285—3,6302,96310.434,8841914,6931,0341,9881,9403,6095,53918,436284
202314,368—3,1412,3848.425,0462104,8368891,9671,7122,8486,12017,269283
202212,726—2,5712,0667.283,8891573,7327741,8611,3082,7966,41516,441284
20219,633—2,5002,0627.563,250533,1976461,0057532,5622,0349,869273
20207,679—2,1761,8266.922,414592,3555613234356,4422,0315,106264
20196,784—1,8541,5575.892,324762,2485015564012,1163863,749264
20186,025—1,5601,3295.092,112382,0744072723821,4643882,816261
20175,196—1,4189853.781,5991021,4973538393265294381,699261
20164,694—1,2429793.691,4604161,0443182,2642816384881,492265
20154,192—7383651.281,5891421,4472831,2452578085002,332286
20144,243—1,3009073.121,4461041,3422201,577204849—3,078291
20133,946—1,2088582.831,3661291,2372032921951,009—3,531303
20123,808—1,1687922.601,2461351,1111789001693934992,744305
20113,449—1,0826342.001,01311489901,3601537224992,616317
20103,403—9045741.779987492409001352149982,821325
20093,109—6834471.35812131681—300133679—2,557330
20082,993—6444771.41830262568—800113413—2,080339

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗