INTC
Intel · Information Technology · Semiconductors
$87.26
52w 23.68 – 142.35
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$440.1B
P/E
—
P/FCF
—
FCF yield
-1.1%
ROE
-0.2%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.3× across 19 years, INTC would trade near $12/share (25th–75th percentile: $10–$14); it trades at 45.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−5.7%
Rev 5y
−7.5%
Rev 10y
−0.5%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $16.1B | +25.4% | −$11.0B | — | -2.16 | $7.0B |
| Q1'26 | $13.6B | +7.2% | −$3.7B | — | -0.73 | $1.1B |
| Q4'25 * | $13.7B | −4.1% | −$591.0M | — | -0.10 | $4.3B |
| Q3'25 | $13.7B | +2.8% | $4.1B | — | 0.90 | $2.5B |
| Q2'25 | $12.9B | +0.2% | −$2.9B | — | -0.67 | $2.0B |
| Q1'25 | $12.7B | −0.4% | −$821.0M | — | -0.19 | $813.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $14.3B | −7.4% | −$126.0M | −104.7% | -0.03 | $3.2B |
| Q3'24 | $13.3B | −6.2% | −$16.6B | −5702.4% | -3.88 | $4.1B |
| Q2'24 | $12.8B | −0.9% | −$1.6B | −208.7% | -0.38 | $2.3B |
| Q1'24 | $12.7B | +8.6% | −$381.0M | — | -0.09 | −$1.2B |
| Q4'23 * | $15.4B | +9.7% | $2.7B | — | 0.64 | $4.6B |
| Q3'23 | $14.2B | −7.7% | $297.0M | −70.9% | 0.07 | $5.8B |
| Q2'23 | $12.9B | −15.5% | $1.5B | — | 0.35 | $2.8B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −5.7% | −7.5% | −0.5% | +1.3% |
| Operating cash flow | −14.3% | −23.0% | −6.5% | −3.6% |
| Free cash flow | −9.0% | −2.5% | +0.5% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | −56.7% | −38.3% | −14.4% | −5.4% |
| Equity | +4.1% | +7.1% | +6.5% | +5.7% |
| LT debt | +5.4% | +5.4% | +8.2% | +22.6% |
| Diluted shares | +3.2% | +1.4% | −0.8% | −1.5% |
| Stock price | +36.2% | +11.9% | +11.6% | +13.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$252vs $176 in SPY
36.2% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$175vs $181 in SPY
11.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$300vs $412 in SPY
11.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$633vs $813 in SPY
13.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 10 years
$1.79
$90.5B created / $50.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
6.1%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.69
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
−$7.4B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
-1.6%
Share count 5y
−1.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$135.67
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 47.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -74.7% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -35.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
6 of 19 checks pass · 32%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
1/5
- fail
Revenue growth
-7.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
6 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-23.0% vs -7.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
1/7
- fail
Net margin
-0.5% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
-4.2% · ≥ 10%
- fail
Gross margin stable or rising
34.8% vs 42.6% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-0.2% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
6.1% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
-9.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $9.7B vs NI −$267.0M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/3
- na
Debt payable from cash flow
— · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
32% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.39 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$114.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
-49% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/2
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- na
Distributions funded by FCF
— · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
6 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/2
- fail
FCF yield
-1.1% · ≥ 3%
- na
Earnings multiple
— · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Negative free cash flow
Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.
Net loss
The company reported a net loss in the latest fiscal year.
Margin compression
Gross margin has fallen by more than 5 points over the last three years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 52,853 | 18,375 | -2,214 | -267 | -0.06 | 9,697 | 14,646 | -4,949 | 0 | — | 2,434 | 14,265 | 44,086 | 114,281 | 4,530 |
| 2024 | 53,101 | 17,345 | -11,678 | -18,756 | -4.38 | 8,288 | 23,944 | -15,656 | 1,599 | — | 3,410 | 8,249 | 46,282 | 99,270 | 4,280 |
| 2023 | 54,228 | 21,711 | 93 | 1,689 | 0.40 | 11,471 | 25,750 | -14,279 | 3,088 | 0 | 3,229 | 7,079 | 46,978 | 105,590 | 4,212 |
| 2022 | 63,054 | 26,866 | 2,334 | 8,014 | 1.94 | 15,433 | 24,844 | -9,411 | 5,997 | 0 | 3,128 | 11,144 | 37,684 | 101,423 | 4,123 |
| 2021 | 79,024 | 43,815 | 19,456 | 19,868 | 4.86 | 29,456 | 18,733 | 10,723 | 5,644 | 2,415 | 2,036 | 4,827 | 33,510 | 95,391 | 4,090 |
| 2020 | 77,867 | 43,612 | 23,678 | 20,899 | 4.94 | 35,864 | 14,259 | 21,605 | 5,568 | 14,229 | 1,854 | 5,865 | 33,897 | 81,038 | 4,232 |
| 2019 | 71,965 | 42,140 | 22,035 | 21,048 | 4.71 | 33,145 | 16,213 | 16,932 | 5,576 | 13,576 | 1,705 | 4,194 | 25,308 | 77,504 | 4,473 |
| 2018 | 70,848 | 43,737 | 23,316 | 21,053 | 4.48 | 29,432 | 15,181 | 14,251 | 5,541 | 10,730 | 1,546 | 3,019 | 25,098 | 74,563 | 4,701 |
| 2017 | 62,761 | 39,098 | 18,050 | 9,601 | 1.99 | 22,110 | 11,778 | 10,332 | 5,072 | 3,615 | 1,358 | 3,433 | 25,037 | 69,653 | 4,835 |
| 2016 | 59,387 | 36,233 | 13,133 | 10,316 | 2.12 | 21,808 | 9,625 | 12,183 | 4,925 | 2,587 | 1,444 | 5,560 | 20,649 | 66,226 | 4,875 |
| 2015 | 55,355 | 34,679 | 14,002 | 11,420 | 2.33 | 19,018 | 7,326 | 11,692 | 4,556 | 3,001 | 1,305 | 15,308 | 20,036 | 61,085 | 4,894 |
| 2014 | 55,870 | 35,609 | 15,347 | 11,704 | 2.31 | 20,418 | 10,105 | 10,313 | 4,409 | 10,792 | 1,148 | 2,561 | 12,059 | 55,865 | 5,056 |
| 2013 | 52,708 | 31,521 | 12,291 | 9,620 | 1.89 | 20,776 | 10,711 | 10,065 | 4,479 | 2,147 | 1,118 | 5,674 | 13,165 | 58,256 | 5,097 |
| 2012 | 53,341 | 33,151 | 14,638 | 11,005 | 2.13 | 18,884 | 11,027 | 7,857 | 4,350 | 4,765 | 1,102 | 8,478 | 13,136 | 51,203 | 5,160 |
| 2011 | 53,999 | 33,757 | 17,477 | 12,942 | 2.39 | 20,963 | 10,764 | 10,199 | 4,127 | 14,340 | 1,053 | 5,065 | 7,084 | 45,911 | 5,411 |
| 2010 | 43,623 | 28,491 | 15,588 | 11,464 | 2.01 | 16,692 | 5,207 | 11,485 | 3,503 | 1,736 | 917 | 5,498 | 2,077 | 49,430 | 5,696 |
| 2009 | 35,127 | 19,561 | 5,711 | 4,369 | 0.77 | 11,170 | 4,515 | 6,655 | 3,108 | 1,762 | 889 | 3,987 | 2,049 | 41,704 | 5,645 |
| 2008 | 37,586 | 20,844 | 8,954 | 5,292 | 0.92 | 10,926 | 5,197 | 5,729 | 3,100 | 7,195 | 851 | 3,350 | 1,185 | 39,546 | 5,748 |
| 2007 | 38,334 | 19,904 | 8,216 | 6,976 | 1.18 | 12,625 | 5,000 | 7,625 | 2,618 | 2,788 | 952 | 7,307 | — | 43,220 | 5,936 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.