MMarketMath

ICE

StalwartQuality: Medium (65/100)

Intercontinental Exchange · Financials · Financial Exchanges & Data

$162.99

52w 121.79 – 181.65

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$91.5B

P/E

27.3

P/FCF

21.1

FCF yield

4.7%

ROE

11.5%

Shldr yield

2.7%

div 1.2% + bb 1.4%

What today's price assumes

At $91.5B, the market is pricing in 8.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 14.4% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $116 · $249 · $311 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 19.5× across 15 years, ICE would trade near $162/share (25th–75th percentile: $133–$164); it trades at 19.6× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+9.5%

Rev 5y

+8.9%

Rev 10y

+14.2%

EPS 5y

+8.9%

EPS 10y

+9.7%

FCF 5y

+9.9%

FCF 10y

+14.4%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2011–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2011: $1.3B
2012: $1.4B
2013: $1.7B
2014: $4.4B
2015: $3.3B
2016: $6.0B
2017: $5.8B
2018: $6.3B
2019: $6.5B
2020: $8.2B
2021: $9.2B
2022: $9.6B
2023: $9.9B
2024: $11.8B
2025: $12.6B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Net income

2011: $510.0M
2012: $552.0M
2013: $254.0M
2014: $981.0M
2015: $1.3B
2016: $1.4B
2017: $2.5B
2018: $2.0B
2019: $1.9B
2020: $2.1B
2021: $4.1B
2022: $1.4B
2023: $2.4B
2024: $2.8B
2025: $3.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Free cash flow

2011: $656.0M
2012: $701.0M
2013: $580.0M
2014: $1.3B
2015: $1.1B
2016: $1.9B
2017: $1.9B
2018: $2.4B
2019: $2.5B
2020: $2.7B
2021: $2.9B
2022: $3.3B
2023: $3.4B
2024: $4.2B
2025: $4.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2011: 536.7M
2012: 529.5M
2013: 573.0M
2014: 573.0M
2015: 559.0M
2016: 599.0M
2017: 594.0M
2018: 579.0M
2019: 565.0M
2020: 555.0M
2021: 565.0M
2022: 561.0M
2023: 565.0M
2024: 576.0M
2025: 575.0M
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
11
14
17
20
23

Margins

20%40%1113151719212325
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2011: $175.0M
2012: $53.0M
2013: $75.0M
2014: $944.0M
2015: $991.0M
2016: $459.0M
2017: $1.4B
2018: $1.8B
2019: $2.1B
2020: $1.9B
2021: $997.0M
2022: $1.5B
2023: $955.0M
2024: $1.0B
2025: $2.4B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$50.0B$100.0B$150.0B1113151719212325
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $2.3B
Q3'23: $2.4B
Q4'23: $2.7B
Q1'24: $2.8B
Q2'24: $2.9B
Q3'24: $3.0B
Q4'24: $3.0B
Q1'25: $3.2B
Q2'25: $3.3B
Q3'25: $3.0B
Q4'25: $3.1B
Q1'26: $3.7B
Q2'26: $3.6B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $799.0M
Q3'23: $541.0M
Q4'23: $373.0M
Q1'24: $767.0M
Q2'24: $632.0M
Q3'24: $657.0M
Q4'24: $698.0M
Q1'25: $797.0M
Q2'25: $851.0M
Q3'25: $816.0M
Q4'25: $851.0M
Q1'26: $1.4B
Q2'26: $958.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$3.6B+10.7%$958.0M+12.6%1.69$2.0B
Q1'26$3.7B+13.5%$1.4B+77.3%2.48$1.3B
Q4'25 *$3.1B+3.7%$851.0M+21.9%1.49$1.3B
Q3'25$3.0B−0.9%$816.0M+24.2%1.42$915.0M
Q2'25$3.3B+12.6%$851.0M+34.7%1.48$1.5B
Q1'25$3.2B+15.3%$797.0M+3.9%1.38$966.0M
Q4'24 *$3.0B+13.7%$698.0M+87.1%1.21$1.5B
Q3'24$3.0B+24.9%$657.0M+21.4%1.14$898.0M
Q2'24$2.9B+24.0%$632.0M−20.9%1.10$1.2B
Q1'24$2.8B+13.3%$767.0M+17.1%1.33$1.0B
Q4'23 *$2.7B+12.2%$373.0M−12.2%0.64$969.0M
Q3'23$2.4B+1.8%$541.0M—0.96$768.0M
Q2'23$2.3B−3.2%$799.0M+44.0%1.42$1.2B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+9.5%+8.9%+14.2%—
Operating cash flow+9.5%+10.1%+13.5%—
Free cash flow+8.8%+9.9%+14.4%—
EPS (diluted)+30.8%+8.9%+9.7%—
Equity+8.4%+8.2%+6.9%—
LT debt+0.9%+5.7%+14.7%—
Diluted shares+0.8%+0.7%+0.3%—
Stock price+12.8%+7.8%+12.6%+15.0%

$100, 3 years ago

$143vs $176 in SPY

12.8% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$146vs $181 in SPY

7.8% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$328vs $412 in SPY

12.6% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$813vs $813 in SPY

15.0% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$4.56

$42.2B created / $9.2B retained

Last 10 years

$4.46

$73.4B created / $16.5B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

9.8%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

4.3%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.94

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

4.3y

SBC / FCF

5.5%

Owner earnings

$4.1B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

4.5%

Share count 5y

+0.5%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

—

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.08

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 496.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 1.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

20 of 26 checks pass · 77%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    8.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    8.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    9.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    10.1% vs 8.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

4/6

  • Net margin

    26.2% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    39.0% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    11.5% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    9.8% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • FCF margin

    33.9% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $4.7B vs NI $3.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    4.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    4% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.64 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $28.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    16% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    6% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    56% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

3/4

  • FCF yield

    4.7% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    27.3 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    8.4% vs 14.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    2.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202512,640—4,9293,3155.774,6623734,2891,1051,29423883718,60928,915575
202411,761—4,3092,7544.784,6094064,2031,039023184417,34127,647576
20239,903—3,6942,3684.193,5421903,352955025789920,65925,717565
20229,636—3,6381,4462.583,5542253,3298536321551,79918,11822,706561
20219,168—3,4494,0587.183,1231792,944747250188147,97612,39722,709565
20208,244—3,0332,0893.772,8812072,6746691,24713983,61914,12619,498555
20196,547—2,6731,9333.422,6591532,5066211,46013965,0915,25017,255565
20186,276—2,5831,9883.432,5331342,3995551,19813064,5926,49017,201579
20175,843—2,3792,5264.252,0852201,8654769491351,5684,26716,957594
20165,971—2,1721,4302.392,1492501,899409501241,3503,87115,717599
20153,338—1,7501,2742.281,3111901,1213316601111,5474,71714,808559
20144,352—1,4489811.711,4631721,291299645971,2782,23512,360573
20131,730—7902540.44714134580750649613,92312,349573
20121,363—8275521.0473332701053529619693,644529
20111,327—7935100.9571357656017553823—3,162537

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗