HWM
Howmet Aerospace · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
$263.29
52w 170.81 – 310.00
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$105.0B
P/E
75.0
P/FCF
79.0
FCF yield
1.3%
ROE
28.2%
Shldr yield
0.8%
div 0.2% + bb 0.6%
What today's price assumes
At $105.0B, the market is pricing in 26.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).
Simple DCF per-share range: $55 · $73 · $91 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 32.8× across 9 years, HWM would trade near $155/share (25th–75th percentile: $122–$212); it trades at 55.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+13.4%
Rev 5y
+9.4%
Rev 10y
−4.4%
EPS 5y
+23.8%
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $2.5B | +24.1% | $534.0M | +31.2% | 1.33 | $583.0M |
| Q1'26 | $2.3B | +19.1% | $580.0M | +68.6% | 1.44 | $453.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $2.2B | +14.6% | $372.0M | +18.5% | 0.92 | $654.0M |
| Q3'25 | $2.1B | +13.8% | $385.0M | +16.0% | 0.95 | $531.0M |
| Q2'25 | $2.1B | +9.2% | $407.0M | +53.0% | 1.00 | $446.0M |
| Q1'25 | $1.9B | +6.5% | $344.0M | +41.6% | 0.84 | $253.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.9B | +9.2% | $314.0M | +33.1% | 0.76 | $480.0M |
| Q3'24 | $1.8B | +10.7% | $332.0M | +76.6% | 0.81 | $244.0M |
| Q2'24 | $1.9B | +14.1% | $266.0M | +37.8% | 0.65 | $397.0M |
| Q1'24 | $1.8B | +13.8% | $243.0M | +64.2% | 0.59 | $177.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.7B | +14.4% | $236.0M | +112.6% | 0.57 | $458.0M |
| Q3'23 | $1.7B | +15.7% | $188.0M | +135.0% | 0.45 | $191.0M |
| Q2'23 | $1.6B | +18.3% | $193.0M | +31.3% | 0.46 | $229.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +13.4% | +9.4% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +37.0% | +191.2% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +38.4% | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +49.5% | +23.8% | — | — |
| Equity | +14.1% | +8.4% | — | — |
| LT debt | −11.8% | −9.5% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −1.2% | −1.6% | — | — |
| Stock price | +75.0% | +53.1% | — | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$536vs $176 in SPY
75.0% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$841vs $181 in SPY
53.1% vs 12.6%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$19.73
$73.8B created / $3.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
22.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
6.00
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.0y
SBC / FCF
5.1%
Owner earnings
$1.4B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.2%
Share count 5y
−0.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
31.4%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.00
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 15.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 233.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 35.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 23 checks pass · 74%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/6
- pass
Revenue growth
9.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
23.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
5 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
191.2% vs 9.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
18.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
24.8% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
28.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
22.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
17.3% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $1.9B vs NI $1.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
26% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.53 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$5.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
61% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
7 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/3
- fail
FCF yield
1.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
75.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8,252 | — | 2,046 | 1,508 | 3.71 | 1,884 | 453 | 1,431 | 179 | 700 | 73 | 742 | 2,859 | 5,353 | 406 |
| 2024 | 7,430 | — | 1,633 | 1,155 | 2.81 | 1,298 | 321 | 977 | 107 | 500 | 63 | 564 | 3,309 | 4,554 | 410 |
| 2023 | 6,640 | — | 1,203 | 765 | 1.83 | 901 | 219 | 682 | 71 | 250 | 50 | 610 | 3,500 | 4,037 | 416 |
| 2022 | 5,663 | — | 919 | 469 | 1.11 | 733 | 193 | 540 | 42 | 400 | 54 | 791 | 4,162 | 3,601 | 421 |
| 2021 | 4,972 | — | 748 | 258 | 0.59 | 449 | 199 | 250 | 17 | 430 | 40 | 720 | 4,227 | 3,508 | 435 |
| 2020 | 5,259 | — | 626 | 261 | — | 9 | 267 | -258 | 8 | 73 | 46 | 1,610 | 4,699 | 3,577 | 439 |
| 2019 | 7,098 | — | 579 | 470 | 1.03 | 461 | 641 | -180 | 56 | 1,150 | 69 | 1,577 | 4,906 | 4,591 | 463 |
| 2018 | 6,778 | — | 775 | 642 | 1.30 | 217 | 768 | -551 | 117 | 0 | 40 | 2,277 | 5,896 | 5,573 | 503 |
| 2017 | 12,960 | — | 480 | -74 | -0.28 | -39 | 596 | -635 | 109 | 0 | 54 | 2,150 | 6,806 | 4,910 | 451 |
| 2016 | 12,394 | — | 954 | -941 | -2.31 | 95 | 1,125 | -1,030 | 159 | — | 76 | 1,863 | 8,044 | 5,115 | 438 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.