HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise · Information Technology · Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
$52.43
52w 19.84 – 64.25
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$69.4B
P/E
1,218.0
P/FCF
110.7
FCF yield
0.9%
ROE
0.2%
Shldr yield
1.3%
div 1.0% + bb 0.3%
What today's price assumes
At $69.4B, the market is pricing in 31.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 7.1% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $7 · $9 · $11 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 4.7× across 11 years, HPE would trade near $10/share (25th–75th percentile: $9–$14); it trades at 23.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+6.4%
Rev 5y
+4.9%
Rev 10y
+1.0%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
+7.1%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2013–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $10.7B | +40.0% | $624.0M | — | 0.44 | $1.4B |
| Q1'26 | $9.3B | +18.4% | $452.0M | −27.9% | 0.31 | $1.2B |
| Q4'25 * | $9.7B | +14.4% | $175.0M | −87.2% | 0.13 | $2.5B |
| Q3'25 | $9.1B | +18.5% | $305.0M | −40.4% | 0.21 | $1.3B |
| Q2'25 | $7.6B | +5.9% | −$1.1B | −434.4% | -0.82 | −$461.0M |
| Q1'25 | $7.9B | +16.3% | $627.0M | +62.0% | 0.44 | −$390.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $8.5B | +15.1% | $1.4B | +112.8% | 1.02 | $2.0B |
| Q3'24 | $7.7B | +10.1% | $512.0M | +10.3% | 0.38 | $1.2B |
| Q2'24 | $7.2B | +3.3% | $314.0M | −24.9% | 0.24 | $1.1B |
| Q1'24 | $6.8B | −13.5% | $387.0M | −22.8% | 0.29 | $64.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $7.4B | −6.6% | $642.0M | — | 0.49 | $2.8B |
| Q3'23 | $7.0B | +0.7% | $464.0M | +13.4% | 0.35 | $1.5B |
| Q2'23 | $7.0B | +3.9% | $418.0M | +67.2% | 0.32 | $889.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.4% | +4.9% | +1.0% | — |
| Operating cash flow | −14.0% | +5.4% | −2.2% | — |
| Free cash flow | −24.7% | −9.5% | +7.1% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | −9.2% | +20.2% | +7.9% | — |
| Equity | +7.5% | +9.0% | −3.0% | — |
| LT debt | +22.1% | +8.0% | +3.7% | — |
| Diluted shares | +0.1% | +0.5% | −3.2% | — |
| Stock price | +49.4% | +31.3% | +18.7% | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$333vs $176 in SPY
49.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$391vs $181 in SPY
31.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$555vs $412 in SPY
18.7% vs 15.2%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$2.87
$16.4B created / $5.7B retained
Last 10 years
$1.80
$16.7B created / $9.3B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
6.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.38
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
34.7y
SBC / FCF
102.6%
Owner earnings
−$16.0M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
-0.0%
Share count 5y
−2.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
17.5%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.05
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 63.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 4.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 3.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
8 of 23 checks pass · 35%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/5
- fail
Revenue growth
4.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
5.4% vs 4.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
1/6
- fail
Net margin
0.2% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
-1.3% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
0.2% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
6.3% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
1.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.9B vs NI $57.0M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
34.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
27% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.88 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$24.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
-251% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
103% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
141% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
0.9% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
1218.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
31.4% vs 7.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34,296 | — | -437 | 57 | -0.04 | 2,919 | 2,292 | 627 | 684 | 202 | 643 | 5,773 | 21,748 | 24,688 | 1,324 |
| 2024 | 30,127 | — | 2,190 | 2,579 | 1.93 | 4,341 | 2,367 | 1,974 | 676 | 150 | 430 | 14,846 | 17,660 | 24,816 | 1,337 |
| 2023 | 29,135 | — | 2,089 | 2,025 | 1.54 | 4,428 | 2,828 | 1,600 | 619 | 421 | 428 | 4,270 | 11,694 | 21,182 | 1,316 |
| 2022 | 28,496 | — | 782 | 868 | 0.66 | 4,593 | 3,122 | 1,471 | 621 | 512 | 391 | 4,163 | 11,943 | 19,864 | 1,322 |
| 2021 | 27,784 | — | 1,132 | 3,427 | 2.58 | 5,871 | 2,502 | 3,369 | 625 | 213 | 382 | 3,996 | 12,457 | 19,971 | 1,330 |
| 2020 | 26,982 | — | -329 | -322 | -0.25 | 2,240 | 2,383 | -143 | 618 | 355 | 274 | 4,233 | 14,797 | 16,049 | 1,294 |
| 2019 | 29,135 | — | 1,274 | 1,049 | 0.77 | 3,997 | 2,856 | 1,141 | 608 | 2,249 | 268 | 3,753 | 9,395 | 17,098 | 1,366 |
| 2018 | 30,852 | — | 1,737 | 1,908 | 1.23 | 2,964 | 2,956 | 8 | 570 | 3,568 | 286 | 4,880 | 10,136 | 21,239 | 1,553 |
| 2017 | 28,871 | — | 564 | 344 | 0.21 | 1,335 | 3,137 | -1,802 | 428 | 2,556 | 428 | 9,579 | 10,182 | 23,466 | 1,674 |
| 2016 | 30,280 | — | 3,903 | 3,161 | 1.82 | 5,056 | 3,280 | 1,776 | 373 | 2,662 | 558 | 12,987 | 12,168 | 31,448 | 1,739 |
| 2015 | 31,077 | — | 1,946 | 2,461 | 1.34 | 3,661 | 3,344 | 317 | — | 0 | 565 | 9,842 | 15,103 | 33,535 | 1,834 |
| 2014 | 55,123 | — | 2,335 | 1,648 | 0.90 | 6,911 | 3,620 | 3,291 | — | 0 | 427 | 2,319 | 485 | 36,776 | 1,834 |
| 2013 | 57,371 | — | 2,952 | 2,051 | 1.12 | 8,739 | 2,497 | 6,242 | — | — | 374 | 2,182 | — | 38,375 | 1,834 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.