HLT
Hilton Worldwide · Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
$330.07
52w 253.54 – 358.00
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$74.3B
P/E
50.5
P/FCF
36.2
FCF yield
2.8%
ROE
-27.0%
Shldr yield
4.5%
div 0.2% + bb 4.3%
What today's price assumes
At $74.3B, the market is pricing in 15.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 6.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $137 · $159 · $198 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 23.7× across 13 years, HLT would trade near $224/share (25th–75th percentile: $132–$303); it trades at 34.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+11.1%
Rev 5y
+22.8%
Rev 10y
+5.4%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+3.7%
FCF 5y
+25.1%
FCF 10y
+6.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2012–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $3.3B | +6.5% | $482.0M | +9.5% | 2.10 | $472.0M |
| Q1'26 | $2.9B | +9.0% | $385.0M | +28.3% | 1.66 | $618.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $3.1B | +10.9% | $297.0M | −41.2% | 1.27 | $203.0M |
| Q3'25 | $3.1B | +8.8% | $420.0M | +22.1% | 1.78 | $816.0M |
| Q2'25 | $3.1B | +6.3% | $440.0M | +4.5% | 1.84 | $658.0M |
| Q1'25 | $2.7B | +4.7% | $300.0M | +13.2% | 1.23 | $452.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $2.8B | +6.7% | $505.0M | +243.5% | 2.05 | $582.0M |
| Q3'24 | $2.9B | +7.3% | $344.0M | −8.8% | 1.38 | $664.0M |
| Q2'24 | $3.0B | +10.9% | $421.0M | +2.4% | 1.67 | $421.0M |
| Q1'24 | $2.6B | +12.2% | $265.0M | +28.6% | 1.04 | $346.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $2.6B | +6.8% | $147.0M | −55.2% | 0.57 | $465.0M |
| Q3'23 | $2.7B | +12.9% | $377.0M | +8.6% | 1.44 | $687.0M |
| Q2'23 | $2.7B | +18.8% | $411.0M | +11.7% | 1.55 | $464.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11.1% | +22.8% | +5.4% | — |
| Operating cash flow | +8.2% | +24.6% | +3.9% | — |
| Free cash flow | +7.3% | +25.1% | +6.0% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +10.5% | +12.4% | +3.7% | — |
| Equity | −54.8% | −33.9% | — | — |
| LT debt | +12.3% | +3.4% | +2.3% | — |
| Diluted shares | −4.9% | −3.0% | −3.2% | — |
| Stock price | +30.8% | +21.8% | +21.5% | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$224vs $176 in SPY
30.8% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$268vs $181 in SPY
21.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$703vs $412 in SPY
21.5% vs 15.2%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$8.28
$43.3B created / $5.2B retained
Last 10 years
$8.87
$59.5B created / $6.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
30.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.5%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.45
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
6.1y
SBC / FCF
8.4%
Owner earnings
$1.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.5%
Share count 5y
−2.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
5.7%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.04
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 3.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 459.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 18.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 25 checks pass · 64%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/6
- pass
Revenue growth
22.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
25.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
24.6% vs 22.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
12.1% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
22.4% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-27.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
30.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
16.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.1B vs NI $1.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
6.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
7% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
-2.29 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
−$5.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
23% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
164% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
50.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
15.8% vs 6.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12,039 | — | 2,693 | 1,457 | 6.12 | 2,129 | 101 | 2,028 | 143 | 3,182 | 170 | 918 | 12,338 | -5,388 | 238 |
| 2024 | 11,174 | — | 2,370 | 1,535 | 6.14 | 2,013 | 96 | 1,917 | 150 | 2,893 | 176 | 1,301 | 10,616 | -3,727 | 250 |
| 2023 | 10,235 | — | 2,225 | 1,141 | 4.33 | 1,946 | 151 | 1,795 | 158 | 2,338 | 169 | 800 | 9,157 | -2,360 | 264 |
| 2022 | 8,773 | — | 2,094 | 1,255 | 4.53 | 1,681 | 39 | 1,642 | 123 | 1,590 | 162 | 1,209 | 8,708 | -1,102 | 277 |
| 2021 | 5,788 | — | 1,010 | 410 | 1.46 | 109 | 35 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 1,427 | 8,712 | -821 | 281 |
| 2020 | 4,307 | — | -418 | -715 | -2.58 | 708 | 46 | 662 | 42 | 296 | 97 | 3,218 | 10,431 | -1,490 | 277 |
| 2019 | 9,452 | — | 1,657 | 881 | 3.04 | 1,384 | 81 | 1,303 | 172 | 1,538 | 154 | 538 | 7,956 | -482 | 290 |
| 2018 | 8,906 | — | 1,432 | 764 | 2.50 | 1,255 | 72 | 1,183 | 181 | 1,721 | 127 | 403 | 7,266 | 551 | 305 |
| 2017 | 8,131 | — | 1,132 | 1,084 | 3.32 | 849 | 58 | 791 | 195 | 891 | 121 | 570 | 6,556 | 1,688 | 327 |
| 2016 | 6,576 | — | 868 | 338 | 1.03 | 1,310 | 317 | 993 | 277 | 0 | 91 | 1,062 | 6,583 | 5,899 | 329 |
| 2015 | 7,133 | — | 900 | 1,404 | 4.26 | 1,446 | 310 | 1,136 | 138 | 0 | 124 | 609 | 9,857 | 5,985 | 330 |
| 2014 | 10,502 | — | 1,673 | 673 | 2.05 | 1,307 | 268 | 1,039 | 0 | — | 78 | 566 | 10,803 | 4,752 | 329 |
| 2013 | 9,735 | — | 1,102 | 415 | 1.26 | 2,101 | 254 | 1,847 | 0 | — | 262 | 594 | 11,751 | 4,363 | 329 |
| 2012 | 9,276 | — | 1,100 | 352 | 1.07 | 1,110 | 433 | 677 | — | — | 50 | 755 | — | 2,155 | 328 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.