HD
Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary · Home Improvement Retail
$337.43
52w 289.10 – 426.75
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$336.5B
P/E
23.6
P/FCF
26.5
FCF yield
3.8%
ROE
110.5%
Shldr yield
2.7%
div 2.7% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $336.5B, the market is pricing in 11.5% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.9% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $193 · $206 · $256 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 13.3× across 19 years, HD would trade near $218/share (25th–75th percentile: $166–$260); it trades at 20.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+1.5%
Rev 5y
+4.5%
Rev 10y
+6.4%
EPS 5y
+3.6%
EPS 10y
+10.1%
FCF 5y
−5.0%
FCF 10y
+4.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | $41.8B | +4.8% | $3.3B | −4.2% | 3.30 | $6.0B |
| Q4'26 * | $38.2B | −3.8% | $2.6B | −14.2% | 2.58 | $3.3B |
| Q3'26 | $41.4B | +2.8% | $3.6B | −1.3% | 3.62 | $4.0B |
| Q2'26 | $45.3B | +4.9% | $4.6B | −0.2% | 4.58 | $4.6B |
| Q1'26 | $39.9B | +9.4% | $3.4B | −4.6% | 3.45 | $4.3B |
| Q4'25 * | $39.7B | +14.1% | $3.0B | +7.0% | 3.01 | $4.7B |
| Q3'25 | $40.2B | +6.6% | $3.6B | −4.3% | 3.67 | $4.2B |
| Q2'25 | $43.2B | +0.6% | $4.6B | −2.1% | 4.60 | $5.4B |
| Q1'25 | $36.4B | −2.3% | $3.6B | −7.0% | 3.63 | $5.5B |
| Q4'24 * | $34.8B | −2.9% | $2.8B | −16.7% | 2.83 | $4.7B |
| Q3'24 | $37.7B | −3.0% | $3.8B | −12.2% | 3.81 | $4.2B |
| Q2'24 | $42.9B | −2.0% | $4.7B | −9.9% | 4.65 | $6.6B |
| Q1'24 | $37.3B | −4.2% | $3.9B | −8.5% | 3.82 | $5.6B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +1.5% | +4.5% | +6.4% | +6.1% |
| Operating cash flow | +3.8% | −2.8% | +5.7% | +8.8% |
| Free cash flow | +3.2% | −5.0% | +4.9% | +9.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | −5.2% | +3.6% | +10.1% | +13.9% |
| Equity | +101.7% | +31.2% | +7.3% | −2.6% |
| LT debt | +6.3% | +7.3% | +9.0% | +12.3% |
| Diluted shares | −1.0% | −1.6% | −2.5% | −3.3% |
| Stock price | +3.1% | +3.2% | +12.3% | +19.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$110vs $176 in SPY
3.1% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$117vs $181 in SPY
3.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$319vs $412 in SPY
12.3% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,425vs $813 in SPY
19.4% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$3.58
$130.4B created / $36.4B retained
Last 10 years
$3.93
$249.8B created / $63.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
26.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.05
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.9y
SBC / FCF
4.1%
Owner earnings
$12.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.6%
Share count 5y
−3.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.08
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 34.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -8.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -2.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
19 of 27 checks pass · 70%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/7
- fail
Revenue growth
4.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
3.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-5.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-2.8% vs 4.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
8.6% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
12.7% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
33.3% vs 33.5% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
110.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
26.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
7.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $16.3B vs NI $14.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
3% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
3.86 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$12.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
12% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-3.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
72% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.8% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
23.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
11.5% vs 4.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 164,683 | 54,865 | 20,890 | 14,156 | 14.23 | 16,325 | 3,679 | 12,646 | 9,152 | 0 | 522 | 1,389 | 49,397 | 12,813 | 995 |
| 2025 | 159,514 | 53,308 | 21,526 | 14,806 | 14.91 | 19,810 | 3,485 | 16,325 | 8,929 | 649 | 442 | 1,659 | 51,365 | 6,640 | 993 |
| 2024 | 152,669 | 50,960 | 21,689 | 15,143 | 15.11 | 21,172 | 3,226 | 17,946 | 8,383 | 7,951 | 380 | 3,760 | 42,150 | 1,044 | 1,002 |
| 2023 | 157,403 | 52,778 | 24,039 | 17,105 | 16.69 | 14,615 | 3,119 | 11,496 | 7,789 | 6,696 | 366 | 2,757 | 41,150 | 1,562 | 1,025 |
| 2022 | 151,157 | 50,832 | 23,040 | 16,433 | 15.53 | 16,571 | 2,566 | 14,005 | 6,985 | 14,809 | 399 | 2,343 | 36,400 | -1,696 | 1,058 |
| 2021 | 132,110 | 44,853 | 18,278 | 12,866 | 11.94 | 18,839 | 2,463 | 16,376 | 6,451 | 791 | 310 | 7,895 | 34,750 | 3,299 | 1,078 |
| 2020 | 110,225 | 37,572 | 15,843 | 11,242 | 10.25 | 13,687 | 2,678 | 11,009 | 5,958 | 6,965 | 251 | 2,133 | 29,500 | -3,116 | 1,097 |
| 2019 | 108,203 | 37,160 | 15,530 | 11,121 | 9.73 | 13,165 | 2,442 | 10,723 | 4,704 | 9,963 | 282 | 1,778 | 26,807 | -1,878 | 1,143 |
| 2018 | 100,904 | 34,356 | 14,681 | 8,630 | 7.29 | 12,031 | 1,897 | 10,134 | 4,212 | 8,000 | 273 | 3,595 | 24,267 | 1,454 | 1,184 |
| 2017 | 94,595 | 32,313 | 13,427 | 7,957 | 6.45 | 9,783 | 1,621 | 8,162 | 3,404 | 6,880 | 267 | 2,538 | 22,349 | 4,333 | 1,234 |
| 2016 | 88,519 | 30,265 | 11,774 | 7,009 | 5.46 | 9,373 | 1,503 | 7,870 | 3,031 | 7,000 | 244 | 2,216 | 20,789 | 6,316 | 1,283 |
| 2015 | 83,176 | 28,389 | 10,469 | 6,345 | 4.71 | 8,242 | 1,442 | 6,800 | 2,530 | 7,000 | 225 | 2,216 | 16,869 | 9,322 | 1,346 |
| 2014 | 78,812 | 26,915 | 9,166 | 5,385 | 3.76 | 7,628 | 1,389 | 6,239 | 2,243 | 8,546 | 228 | 1,929 | 14,691 | 12,522 | 1,434 |
| 2013 | 74,754 | 25,842 | 7,766 | 4,535 | 3.00 | 6,975 | 1,312 | 5,663 | 1,743 | 3,984 | 218 | 2,494 | 9,475 | 17,777 | 1,511 |
| 2012 | 70,395 | 24,262 | 6,661 | 3,883 | 2.47 | 6,651 | 1,221 | 5,430 | 1,632 | 3,470 | 215 | 1,987 | 10,758 | 17,898 | 1,570 |
| 2011 | 67,997 | 23,304 | 5,839 | 3,338 | 2.01 | 4,585 | 1,096 | 3,489 | 1,569 | 2,608 | 214 | 545 | 8,707 | 18,889 | 1,658 |
| 2010 | 66,176 | 22,412 | 4,803 | 2,661 | 1.57 | 5,125 | 966 | 4,159 | 1,525 | 213 | 201 | 1,421 | 8,662 | 19,393 | 1,692 |
| 2009 | 71,288 | 23,990 | 4,359 | 2,260 | 1.34 | 5,528 | 1,847 | 3,681 | 1,521 | 70 | 176 | 519 | 9,667 | 17,777 | 1,686 |
| 2008 | 77,349 | 25,997 | 7,242 | 4,395 | 2.37 | 5,727 | 3,558 | 2,169 | 1,709 | 10,815 | 207 | 445 | — | 17,714 | 1,856 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.