HCA
HCA Healthcare · Health Care · Health Care Facilities
$429.24
52w 353.99 – 556.52
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$95.2B
P/E
13.5
P/FCF
11.9
FCF yield
8.4%
ROE
-112.6%
Shldr yield
11.8%
div 0.7% + bb 11.0%
What today's price assumes
At $95.2B, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 11.5% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $528 · $915 · $1,141 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.5× across 10 years, HCA would trade near $427/share (25th–75th percentile: $349–$487); it trades at 7.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+7.9%
Rev 5y
+8.0%
Rev 10y
+6.9%
EPS 5y
+21.0%
EPS 10y
+16.3%
FCF 5y
+3.8%
FCF 10y
+11.5%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $19.1B | +4.3% | $1.6B | +0.6% | 7.15 | $2.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $19.5B | +6.7% | $1.9B | +30.6% | 8.09 | $2.4B |
| Q3'25 | $19.2B | +9.6% | $1.6B | +29.4% | 6.96 | $4.4B |
| Q2'25 | $18.6B | +6.4% | $1.7B | +13.1% | 6.83 | $4.2B |
| Q1'25 | $18.3B | +5.7% | $1.6B | +1.2% | 6.45 | $1.7B |
| Q4'24 * | $18.3B | +5.7% | $1.4B | −10.5% | 5.66 | $2.6B |
| Q3'24 | $17.5B | +7.9% | $1.3B | +17.7% | 4.88 | $3.5B |
| Q2'24 | $17.5B | +10.3% | $1.5B | +22.5% | 5.53 | $2.0B |
| Q1'24 | $17.3B | +11.2% | $1.6B | +16.7% | 5.93 | $2.5B |
| Q4'23 * | $17.3B | +11.7% | $1.6B | −22.8% | 5.92 | $2.7B |
| Q3'23 | $16.2B | +8.3% | $1.1B | −4.9% | 3.91 | $2.5B |
| Q2'23 | $15.9B | +7.0% | $1.2B | +3.3% | 4.29 | $2.5B |
| Q1'23 | $15.6B | +4.3% | $1.4B | +7.1% | 4.85 | $1.8B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +7.9% | +8.0% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +14.0% | +6.5% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +23.1% | +3.8% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +13.9% | +21.0% | — | — |
| Equity | — | — | — | — |
| LT debt | +3.3% | +6.2% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −6.7% | −7.0% | — | — |
| Stock price | +16.6% | +12.1% | +19.9% | +25.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$158vs $176 in SPY
16.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$177vs $181 in SPY
12.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$613vs $412 in SPY
19.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,887vs $813 in SPY
25.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$2.34
$63.3B created / $27.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
35.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
9.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.72
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
5.4y
SBC / FCF
5.2%
Owner earnings
$7.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
8.0%
Share count 5y
−5.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 9.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 68.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 6.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 24 checks pass · 71%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
8.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
21.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
3.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
6.5% vs 8.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/5
- pass
Net margin
9.0% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-112.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
35.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
10.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $12.6B vs NI $6.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
5.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
2% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
-6.90 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
−$6.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-5.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
140% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
8.4% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
13.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
0.6% vs 11.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
11.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 75,600 | — | — | 6,784 | 28.33 | 12,636 | 4,944 | 7,692 | 679 | 10,067 | 401 | 1,040 | 41,603 | -6,027 | 239 |
| 2024 | 70,603 | — | — | 5,760 | 22.00 | 10,514 | 4,875 | 5,639 | 690 | 6,042 | 360 | 1,933 | 38,333 | -2,499 | 262 |
| 2023 | 64,968 | — | — | 5,242 | 18.97 | 9,431 | 4,744 | 4,687 | 661 | 3,811 | 262 | 935 | 37,169 | -1,774 | 276 |
| 2022 | 60,233 | — | — | 5,643 | 19.15 | 8,522 | 4,395 | 4,127 | 653 | 7,000 | 341 | 908 | 37,714 | -2,767 | 295 |
| 2021 | 58,752 | — | — | 6,956 | 21.16 | 8,959 | 3,577 | 5,382 | 624 | 8,215 | 440 | 1,451 | 34,342 | -933 | 329 |
| 2020 | 51,533 | — | — | 3,754 | 10.93 | 9,232 | 2,835 | 6,397 | 153 | 441 | 362 | 1,793 | 30,795 | 572 | 344 |
| 2019 | 51,336 | — | — | 3,505 | 10.07 | 7,602 | 4,158 | 3,444 | 550 | 1,031 | 347 | 621 | 33,577 | -2,808 | 348 |
| 2018 | 46,677 | — | — | 3,787 | 10.66 | 6,761 | 3,573 | 3,188 | 487 | 1,530 | 268 | 502 | 32,033 | -4,950 | 355 |
| 2017 | 43,614 | — | — | 2,216 | 5.95 | 5,426 | 3,015 | 2,411 | 0 | 2,051 | 270 | 732 | 32,858 | -6,806 | 372 |
| 2016 | 41,490 | — | — | 2,890 | 7.30 | 5,653 | 2,760 | 2,893 | — | 2,751 | 251 | 646 | 31,160 | -7,302 | 396 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.