GWW
W. W. Grainger · Industrials · Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
$1,321.90
52w 906.52 – 1,419.91
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$62.3B
P/E
35.9
P/FCF
46.0
FCF yield
2.2%
ROE
45.7%
Shldr yield
2.5%
div 0.8% + bb 1.7%
What today's price assumes
At $62.3B, the market is pricing in 19.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 7.2% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $431 · $546 · $680 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 14.3× across 19 years, GWW would trade near $613/share (25th–75th percentile: $545–$814); it trades at 30.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+5.6%
Rev 5y
+8.7%
Rev 10y
+6.0%
EPS 5y
+22.5%
EPS 10y
+11.8%
FCF 5y
+7.5%
FCF 10y
+7.2%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $5.0B | +10.3% | $570.0M | +18.3% | 12.01 | $444.0M |
| Q1'26 | $4.7B | +10.1% | $555.0M | +15.9% | 11.65 | $739.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $4.4B | +4.5% | $451.0M | −5.1% | 9.45 | $395.0M |
| Q3'25 | $4.7B | +6.1% | $294.0M | −39.5% | 6.12 | $597.0M |
| Q2'25 | $4.6B | +5.6% | $482.0M | +2.6% | 9.97 | $377.0M |
| Q1'25 | $4.3B | +1.7% | $479.0M | +0.2% | 9.86 | $646.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $4.2B | +5.9% | $475.0M | +20.3% | 9.71 | $428.0M |
| Q3'24 | $4.4B | +4.3% | $486.0M | +2.1% | 9.87 | $611.0M |
| Q2'24 | $4.3B | +3.1% | $470.0M | 0.0% | 9.51 | $411.0M |
| Q1'24 | $4.2B | +3.5% | $478.0M | −2.0% | 9.62 | $661.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $4.0B | +5.1% | $395.0M | +2.9% | 7.91 | $604.0M |
| Q3'23 | $4.2B | +6.7% | $476.0M | +11.7% | 9.43 | $523.0M |
| Q2'23 | $4.2B | +9.0% | $470.0M | +26.7% | 9.28 | $450.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.6% | +8.7% | +6.0% | +6.3% |
| Operating cash flow | +14.8% | +12.4% | +6.9% | +8.5% |
| Free cash flow | +7.3% | +7.5% | +7.2% | +7.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | +5.6% | +22.5% | +11.8% | +11.5% |
| Equity | +15.3% | +15.4% | +5.1% | +3.6% |
| LT debt | +1.1% | −0.2% | +5.5% | +12.2% |
| Diluted shares | −2.1% | −2.2% | −3.1% | −2.7% |
| Stock price | +23.7% | +26.2% | +20.8% | +17.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$189vs $176 in SPY
23.7% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$320vs $181 in SPY
26.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$663vs $412 in SPY
20.8% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,083vs $813 in SPY
17.2% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$5.51
$33.2B created / $6.0B retained
Last 10 years
$5.11
$40.6B created / $8.0B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
33.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.2%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.04
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.8y
SBC / FCF
4.8%
Owner earnings
$1.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.1%
Share count 5y
−3.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
12.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.14
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 22.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 47.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
22 of 27 checks pass · 81%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
8.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
22.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
7.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
12.4% vs 8.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
9.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
13.9% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
39.1% vs 38.4% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
45.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
33.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
7.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.0B vs NI $1.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
25% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.63 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$3.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
3% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-3.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
114% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
35.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
19.1% vs 7.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17,942 | 7,009 | 2,495 | 1,706 | 35.40 | 2,015 | 684 | 1,331 | 467 | 1,045 | 64 | 585 | 2,362 | 3,736 | 48 |
| 2024 | 17,168 | 6,758 | 2,637 | 1,909 | 38.71 | 2,111 | 541 | 1,570 | 421 | 1,201 | 62 | 1,036 | 2,279 | 3,358 | 49 |
| 2023 | 16,478 | 6,496 | 2,565 | 1,829 | 36.23 | 2,031 | 445 | 1,586 | 392 | 850 | 62 | 660 | 2,266 | 3,115 | 50 |
| 2022 | 15,228 | 5,849 | 2,215 | 1,547 | 30.06 | 1,333 | 256 | 1,077 | 370 | 603 | 48 | 325 | 2,284 | 2,440 | 51 |
| 2021 | 13,022 | 4,720 | 1,547 | 1,043 | 19.84 | 937 | 255 | 682 | 357 | 695 | 42 | 241 | 2,362 | 1,874 | 52 |
| 2020 | 11,797 | 4,238 | 1,019 | 695 | 12.82 | 1,123 | 197 | 926 | 338 | 601 | 46 | 585 | 2,389 | 1,828 | 54 |
| 2019 | 11,486 | 4,397 | 1,262 | 849 | 15.32 | 1,042 | 221 | 821 | 328 | 700 | 40 | 360 | 1,914 | 1,855 | 55 |
| 2018 | 11,221 | 4,348 | 1,158 | 782 | 13.73 | 1,057 | 239 | 818 | 316 | 425 | 47 | 538 | 2,090 | 1,921 | 57 |
| 2017 | 10,425 | 4,098 | 1,035 | 586 | 10.02 | 1,057 | 237 | 820 | 304 | 605 | 33 | 327 | 2,248 | 1,690 | 58 |
| 2016 | 10,137 | 4,115 | 1,113 | 606 | 9.87 | 1,024 | 284 | 740 | 303 | 790 | 36 | 274 | 1,841 | 1,798 | 61 |
| 2015 | 9,973 | 4,231 | 1,300 | 769 | 11.58 | 1,036 | 374 | 662 | 306 | 1,400 | 47 | 290 | 1,388 | 2,267 | 66 |
| 2014 | 9,965 | 4,314 | 1,347 | 802 | 11.45 | 960 | 387 | 572 | 291 | 525 | 49 | 227 | 403 | 3,210 | 69 |
| 2013 | 9,438 | 4,136 | 1,297 | 797 | 11.13 | 986 | 272 | 714 | 255 | 438 | 56 | 431 | 446 | 3,250 | 71 |
| 2012 | 8,950 | 3,916 | 1,131 | 690 | 9.52 | 816 | 250 | 566 | 220 | 341 | 56 | 452 | 467 | 3,024 | 71 |
| 2011 | 8,078 | 3,511 | 1,052 | 658 | 9.07 | 746 | 197 | 549 | 181 | 151 | 54 | 335 | 175 | 2,629 | 71 |
| 2010 | 7,182 | 3,006 | 860 | 511 | 6.93 | 596 | 127 | 469 | 152 | 505 | 50 | 313 | 420 | 2,205 | 72 |
| 2009 | 6,222 | 2,599 | 665 | 430 | 5.62 | 732 | 142 | 590 | 135 | 373 | 43 | 460 | 438 | 2,164 | 75 |
| 2008 | 6,850 | 2,808 | 783 | 475 | 5.97 | 530 | -195 | 725 | 122 | 394 | 48 | 396 | 488 | 2,034 | 78 |
| 2007 | 6,418 | 2,604 | 671 | 420 | 4.91 | 469 | -197 | 666 | -113 | -647 | 36 | 113 | 5 | 2,098 | 84 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.