MMarketMath

GS

StalwartQuality: Medium (62/100)1 red flag

Goldman Sachs · Financials · Investment Banking & Brokerage

$1,036.28

52w 721.16 – 1,153.99

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$301.7B

P/E

17.0

P/FCF

FCF yield

-16.2%

ROE

13.7%

Shldr yield

6.0%

div 1.8% + bb 4.2%

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 6.3× across 9 years, GS would trade near $189/share (25th–75th percentile: $117–$413); it trades at 34.7× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+7.2%

Rev 5y

+5.5%

Rev 10y

+5.6%

EPS 5y

+15.7%

EPS 10y

+15.5%

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2011–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2011: $28.8B
2012: $34.2B
2013: $34.2B
2014: $34.5B
2015: $33.8B
2016: $30.8B
2017: $32.7B
2018: $36.6B
2019: $36.5B
2020: $44.6B
2021: $59.3B
2022: $47.4B
2023: $46.3B
2024: $53.5B
2025: $58.3B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Net income

2011: $4.4B
2012: $7.5B
2013: $8.0B
2014: $8.5B
2015: $6.1B
2016: $7.4B
2017: $4.3B
2018: $10.5B
2019: $8.5B
2020: $9.5B
2021: $21.6B
2022: $11.3B
2023: $8.5B
2024: $14.3B
2025: $17.2B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Free cash flow

2011: $21.3B
2012: $11.9B
2013: $3.8B
2014: −$8.6B
2015: $7.6B
2016: $3.6B
2017: −$23.7B
2018: $8.6B
2019: $15.4B
2020: −$24.8B
2021: $1.6B
2022: $5.0B
2023: −$14.9B
2024: −$15.3B
2025: −$47.2B
−$40.0B−$20.0B$0$20.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2011: 556.9M
2012: 516.1M
2013: 499.6M
2014: 473.2M
2015: 458.6M
2016: 435.1M
2017: 409.1M
2018: 390.2M
2019: 375.5M
2020: 360.3M
2021: 355.8M
2022: 358.1M
2023: 345.8M
2024: 333.6M
2025: 317.6M
0200.0M400.0M
11
14
17
20
23

Margins

-50%0%50%1113151719212325
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2011: $8.8B
2012: $5.7B
2013: $7.5B
2014: $6.9B
2015: $5.8B
2016: $7.8B
2017: $8.5B
2018: $5.1B
2019: $7.4B
2020: $4.3B
2021: $7.9B
2022: $7.2B
2023: $10.0B
2024: $12.5B
2025: $17.6B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$100.0B$200.0B1113151719212325
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $10.9B
Q3'23: $11.8B
Q4'23: $11.3B
Q1'24: $14.2B
Q2'24: $12.7B
Q3'24: $12.7B
Q4'24: $13.9B
Q1'25: $15.1B
Q2'25: $14.6B
Q3'25: $15.2B
Q4'25: $13.5B
Q1'26: $17.2B
Q2'26: $20.3B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $1.2B
Q3'23: $2.1B
Q4'23: $2.0B
Q1'24: $4.1B
Q2'24: $3.0B
Q3'24: $3.0B
Q4'24: $4.1B
Q1'25: $4.7B
Q2'25: $3.7B
Q3'25: $4.1B
Q4'25: $4.6B
Q1'26: $5.6B
Q2'26: $6.6B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$20.3B+39.5%$6.6B+78.0%20.98$6.1B
Q1'26$17.2B+14.4%$5.6B+18.8%17.55−$31.9B
Q4'25 *$13.5B−3.0%$4.6B+12.3%14.04−$16.3B
Q3'25$15.2B+19.6%$4.1B+37.1%12.25$2.7B
Q2'25$14.6B+14.5%$3.7B+22.3%10.91$5.7B
Q1'25$15.1B+6.0%$4.7B+14.7%14.12−$37.2B
Q4'24 *$13.9B+22.5%$4.1B+104.7%11.94$46.8B
Q3'24$12.7B+7.5%$3.0B+45.3%8.40−$38.1B
Q2'24$12.7B+16.9%$3.0B+150.2%8.62$6.1B
Q1'24$14.2B+16.3%$4.1B+27.8%11.58−$28.0B
Q4'23 *$11.3B+6.8%$2.0B+51.4%5.53−$28.4B
Q3'23$11.8B−1.3%$2.1B−32.9%5.47−$25.5B
Q2'23$10.9B−8.2%$1.2B−58.5%3.08$31.9B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+7.2%+5.5%+5.6%
Operating cash flow−28.5%+5.0%−3.8%
Free cash flow−31.5%+5.3%−8.4%
EPS (diluted)+19.5%+15.7%+15.5%
Equity+2.2%+5.4%+3.7%
LT debt+8.3%+7.0%
Diluted shares−3.9%−2.5%−3.6%
Stock price+49.8%+23.0%+22.3%+17.8%

$100, 3 years ago

$336vs $176 in SPY

49.8% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$282vs $181 in SPY

23.0% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$748vs $412 in SPY

22.3% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,172vs $813 in SPY

17.8% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$3.97

$208.3B created / $52.5B retained

Last 10 years

$2.83

$234.4B created / $82.8B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

-36.1%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

MC vs 10× OCF

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

Owner earnings

−$50.7B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-17.4%

Share count 5y

−3.9%

per year; negative = buybacks

Checklist

14 of 20 checks pass · 70%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

4/6

  • Revenue growth

    5.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    15.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail
  • FCF consistently positive

    5 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    5.0% vs 5.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

2/5

  • Net margin

    29.5% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    13.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    -36.1% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    -81.0% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF −$45.2B vs NI $17.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

4/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $125.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

2/2

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -3.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    na
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/3

  • FCF yield

    -16.2% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    17.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    6.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202558,28317,17651.32-45,1542,064-47,2185,27712,3603,445164,259124,972318
202453,51214,27640.54-13,2122,091-15,3034,4978,0002,663182,092121,996334
202346,2548,51622.87-12,5872,316-14,9034,1895,7962,085241,577116,905346
202247,36511,26130.068,7083,7484,9603,6823,5004,083241,825117,189358
202159,33921,63559.456,2984,6671,6312,7255,2002,348261,036109,926356
202044,5609,45924.74-18,5356,309-24,8442,3361,9281,920155,84295,932360
201936,5468,46621.0323,8688,44315,4252,1045,3352,018133,54690,265376
201836,61610,45925.2716,5647,9828,5821,8103,2941,831130,547236,02790,185390
201732,7304,2869.01-20,4893,184-23,6731,7696,7721,769110,051227,57982,243409
201630,7907,39816.296,4942,8653,6291,7066,0782,111121,711197,49186,893435
201533,8206,08312.149,4811,8337,6481,6814,1352,27293,439185,94286,728459
201434,5288,47717.07-7,932678-8,6101,4545,4692,08575,025174,55182,797473
201334,2068,04015.464,5437063,8371,3026,1752,01578,867168,48978,467500
201234,1637,47514.1312,87996111,9181,0864,6401,31972,669176,27075,716516
201128,8114,4424.5122,5011,18421,3172,7716,0482,84956,008181,72470,379557

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.