GRMN
Garmin · Consumer Discretionary · Consumer Electronics
$291.25
52w 186.67 – 314.28
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$56.2B
P/E
34.5
P/FCF
42.1
FCF yield
2.4%
ROE
18.5%
Shldr yield
1.2%
div 1.2% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $56.2B, the market is pricing in 17.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 21.2% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $108 · $242 · $348 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 14.8× across 17 years, GRMN would trade near $125/share (25th–75th percentile: $82–$182); it trades at 34.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+14.2%
Rev 5y
+11.6%
Rev 10y
+9.9%
EPS 5y
+340.7%
EPS 10y
+126.8%
FCF 5y
+7.5%
FCF 10y
+21.2%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $1.8B | +14.2% | $405.1M | +21.7% | 2.09 | $536.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $2.1B | +16.6% | $528.7M | +21.3% | 2.72 | $553.8M |
| Q3'25 | $1.8B | +11.7% | $401.6M | +0.6% | 2.08 | $485.6M |
| Q2'25 | $1.8B | +20.4% | $400.8M | +33.3% | 2.07 | $173.2M |
| Q1'25 | $1.5B | +11.1% | $332.8M | +20.6% | 1.72 | $420.8M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.8B | +22.9% | $435.7M | −19.6% | 2.24 | $483.9M |
| Q3'24 | $1.6B | +24.1% | $399.1M | +55.1% | 2.07 | $258.0M |
| Q2'24 | $1.5B | +14.1% | $300.6M | +4.4% | 1.56 | $255.3M |
| Q1'24 | $1.4B | +20.4% | $276.0M | +36.4% | 1.43 | $435.3M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.5B | +13.5% | $542.1M | +84.9% | 2.82 | $465.9M |
| Q3'23 | $1.3B | +12.0% | $257.2M | +22.0% | 1.34 | $357.4M |
| Q2'23 | $1.3B | +6.4% | $287.9M | +11.7% | 1.50 | $273.7M |
| Q1'23 | $1.1B | −2.2% | $202.3M | −4.4% | 1.05 | $279.2M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +14.2% | +11.6% | +9.9% | +6.8% |
| Operating cash flow | +27.5% | +7.5% | +19.3% | +5.1% |
| Free cash flow | +35.8% | +7.5% | +21.2% | +4.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | +19.5% | +340.7% | +126.8% | +7.3% |
| Equity | +13.1% | +10.2% | +10.3% | +7.5% |
| LT debt | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | −0.1% |
| Stock price | +42.6% | +13.2% | +22.6% | +19.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$290vs $176 in SPY
42.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$186vs $181 in SPY
13.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$770vs $412 in SPY
22.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,401vs $813 in SPY
19.2% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$5.53
$19.1B created / $3.5B retained
Last 10 years
$6.36
$33.7B created / $5.3B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
18.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.51
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
12.2%
Owner earnings
$1.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.1%
Share count 5y
−0.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
19.0%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.17
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 42.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 18.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 8.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
20 of 26 checks pass · 77%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
11.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
340.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
7.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
7.5% vs 11.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
23.0% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
25.9% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
58.7% vs 57.7% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
18.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
18.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
18.8% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $1.6B vs NI $1.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
— · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$9.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
12% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
49% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
2 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.4% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
34.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
17.8% vs 21.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7,246 | 4,256 | 1,876 | 1,664 | 8.59 | 1,633 | 270 | 1,363 | 664 | — | 166 | 2,279 | — | 8,973 | 194 |
| 2024 | 6,297 | 3,697 | 1,594 | 1,411 | 7.30 | 1,432 | 194 | 1,239 | 572 | — | 137 | 2,079 | — | 7,848 | 193 |
| 2023 | 5,228 | 3,005 | 1,092 | 1,290 | 6.71 | 1,376 | 194 | 1,183 | 559 | — | 101 | 1,693 | — | 7,012 | 192 |
| 2022 | 4,860 | 2,807 | 1,028 | 974 | 5.04 | 788 | 244 | 544 | 679 | — | 77 | 1,279 | — | 6,204 | 193 |
| 2021 | 4,983 | 2,890 | 1,219 | 1,082 | 0.01 | 1,012 | 308 | 705 | 491 | — | 93 | 1,498 | — | 6,114 | 193 |
| 2020 | 4,187 | 2,481 | 1,054 | 992 | 0.01 | 1,135 | 185 | 950 | 451 | — | 81 | 1,458 | — | 5,516 | 192 |
| 2019 | 3,758 | 2,234 | 946 | 952 | 4.96 | 699 | 118 | 581 | 417 | — | 63 | 1,028 | — | 4,793 | 192 |
| 2018 | 3,347 | 1,980 | 778 | 694 | 3.64 | 920 | 156 | 764 | 296 | — | 56 | 1,202 | — | 4,163 | 191 |
| 2017 | 3,122 | 1,798 | 684 | 709 | 3.74 | 661 | 140 | 521 | 383 | 75 | 45 | 891 | — | 3,852 | 190 |
| 2016 | 3,019 | 1,689 | 633 | 518 | 0.00 | 706 | 91 | 615 | 481 | 93 | 41 | 847 | — | 3,453 | 190 |
| 2015 | 2,820 | 1,539 | 550 | 456 | 0.00 | 280 | 81 | 200 | 378 | 131 | 26 | 833 | — | 3,374 | 191 |
| 2014 | 2,871 | 1,604 | 691 | 364 | 0.00 | 523 | 73 | 449 | 360 | 242 | 24 | 1,196 | — | 3,403 | 195 |
| 2013 | 2,632 | 1,407 | 574 | 612 | 0.00 | 630 | 56 | 574 | 352 | 58 | 23 | 1,179 | — | 3,660 | 197 |
| 2012 | 2,716 | 1,438 | 604 | 542 | 0.00 | 685 | 38 | 646 | 253 | 19 | 29 | 1,231 | — | 3,532 | 197 |
| 2011 | 2,759 | 1,339 | 554 | 521 | 0.00 | 822 | 38 | 784 | 311 | 22 | 40 | 1,287 | — | 3,257 | 195 |
| 2010 | 2,690 | 1,346 | 637 | 585 | 2.99 | 771 | 32 | 738 | 299 | 226 | 40 | 1,261 | — | 3,050 | 195 |
| 2009 | 2,946 | 1,444 | 786 | 704 | 3.55 | 1,094 | 49 | 1,045 | 150 | 20 | 44 | 1,092 | — | 2,836 | 198 |
| 2008 | 3,494 | 1,554 | 862 | 733 | 3.53 | 862 | — | 862 | 150 | 672 | — | 696 | — | 2,226 | — |
| 2007 | 3,180 | 1,463 | 907 | 855 | 3.94 | 682 | — | 682 | 163 | 8 | — | 708 | — | 2,351 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.